Housing prices and unemployment

[socrattt]

I haven’t had much of a chance to read or post anything lately, but I just briefly scanned through some of the latest posts and I am still puzzled how some believe this is the bottom of the market in some areas.

Don’t get me wrong places like Temecula, Murrieta, San Marcos, Vista and Escondido have some awfully low priced homes for sale, but not many seem to be looking at the big picture. I recently heard, our brainchild for a President, Obama say that the real estate market may be recovering.

There are a few reasons why I still believe this market has some room to drop. First off nationally unemployment will most likely hit 8.5%+ for the month of March, which we will hear in a few days. CA is well over 10% and climbing quick. We are now seeing the potential of GM and Chrysler filing BK, which will add to the already catastrophic numbers. Lending is still pretty tight in most areas except for the housing market, go figure. And we still have a huge amount of ghost inventory sitting with the banks.

As cheap as things sound in some areas, I just don’t see any sort of stabilization especially if unemployment reaches 10% nationally. We talked about this last year about all bets being off if we hit that number and I still agree that once we hit 10% things are going to get really ugly.

I am watching so many people invest in the market right now and I am bit fearful for them as I truly believe not only do home prices have some wiggle room before we hit the bottom, but rents are sure to diminish while these unemployment rates continue to move higher coupled with a bit of inflation (I believe this short term deflationary period is slowing heading the other direction).

Your thoughts please!

[Coronita]

[quote]
There are a few reasons why I still believe this market has some room to drop. First off nationally unemployment will most likely hit 8.5%+ for the month of March, which we will hear in a few days. CA is well over 10% and climbing quick. We are now seeing the potential of GM and Chrysler filing BK, which will add to the already catastrophic numbers. Lending is still pretty tight in most areas except for the housing market, go figure. And we still have a huge amount of ghost inventory sitting with the banks.
[/quote]

In my opinion, unemployment(or underemployment) will have vastly different impact based on the locality versus nationally.

What i mean by this is that. You mentioned GM/Chrysler BKing….This mostly likely will have the biggest impact on Detriot,Ohio,etc. However, I doubt this particular company(ies) will have as much of an impact on S.D.

I guess the key to figure out for the S.D. market is how much is unemployment rampant in this area. Find out which are the bellweather company(ies) and see what they are doing. Fortunately, GM/Chrysler doesn’t appear to be a larger employer in S.D. 🙂
It’s going to be a little more challenging probably for S.D. because there probably isn’t a highly focused concentration of one specific industry here in S.D. So you’ll probably need to figure out how each of the major bellweathers for each of the sectors are fairing. My gut feeling is the unemployment in S.D. (while it’s getting bad) isn’t nearly as bad as other parts of C.A. or parts of nation like Detroit. for that matter (yet). Namely, while retail/RE/construction/etc is looking bad, and biotech is looking bad, and some engineering is looking bad, you still have companies doing ok (defense companies for instance) at least for now.

—————

I believe San Diego’s unemployment rate is aroung 8.8%, which is slightly below the current 8.9% national unemployment rate, and lower than the 10.9% unemployment rate of the State of CA…..and much lower than the 13%+ unemployment rate in Detroit….(mind you, this is BEFORE any GM/Chrysler BK. I’ll say this much. those $5000-$8000 priced SFH’s in Detroit are no screaming deal.)

http://www.sandiegoreader.com/weblogs/financial-crime-politics/2009/mar/20/san-diego-unemployment-rises-to-88-in-february-but/

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

That said, I don’t believe we’re close to the bottom (we’re barely budging in some parts of S.D.)

[Coronita]

[quote]
There are a few reasons why I still believe this market has some room to drop. First off nationally unemployment will most likely hit 8.5%+ for the month of March, which we will hear in a few days. CA is well over 10% and climbing quick. We are now seeing the potential of GM and Chrysler filing BK, which will add to the already catastrophic numbers. Lending is still pretty tight in most areas except for the housing market, go figure. And we still have a huge amount of ghost inventory sitting with the banks.
[/quote]

In my opinion, unemployment(or underemployment) will have vastly different impact based on the locality versus nationally.

What i mean by this is that. You mentioned GM/Chrysler BKing….This mostly likely will have the biggest impact on Detriot,Ohio,etc. However, I doubt this particular company(ies) will have as much of an impact on S.D.

I guess the key to figure out for the S.D. market is how much is unemployment rampant in this area. Find out which are the bellweather company(ies) and see what they are doing. Fortunately, GM/Chrysler doesn’t appear to be a larger employer in S.D. 🙂
It’s going to be a little more challenging probably for S.D. because there probably isn’t a highly focused concentration of one specific industry here in S.D. So you’ll probably need to figure out how each of the major bellweathers for each of the sectors are fairing. My gut feeling is the unemployment in S.D. (while it’s getting bad) isn’t nearly as bad as other parts of C.A. or parts of nation like Detroit. for that matter (yet). Namely, while retail/RE/construction/etc is looking bad, and biotech is looking bad, and some engineering is looking bad, you still have companies doing ok (defense companies for instance) at least for now.

—————

I believe San Diego’s unemployment rate is aroung 8.8%, which is slightly below the current 8.9% national unemployment rate, and lower than the 10.9% unemployment rate of the State of CA…..and much lower than the 13%+ unemployment rate in Detroit….(mind you, this is BEFORE any GM/Chrysler BK. I’ll say this much. those $5000-$8000 priced SFH’s in Detroit are no screaming deal.)

http://www.sandiegoreader.com/weblogs/financial-crime-politics/2009/mar/20/san-diego-unemployment-rises-to-88-in-february-but/

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

That said, I don’t believe we’re close to the bottom (we’re barely budging in some parts of S.D.)

[Coronita]

[quote]
There are a few reasons why I still believe this market has some room to drop. First off nationally unemployment will most likely hit 8.5%+ for the month of March, which we will hear in a few days. CA is well over 10% and climbing quick. We are now seeing the potential of GM and Chrysler filing BK, which will add to the already catastrophic numbers. Lending is still pretty tight in most areas except for the housing market, go figure. And we still have a huge amount of ghost inventory sitting with the banks.
[/quote]

In my opinion, unemployment(or underemployment) will have vastly different impact based on the locality versus nationally.

What i mean by this is that. You mentioned GM/Chrysler BKing….This mostly likely will have the biggest impact on Detriot,Ohio,etc. However, I doubt this particular company(ies) will have as much of an impact on S.D.

I guess the key to figure out for the S.D. market is how much is unemployment rampant in this area. Find out which are the bellweather company(ies) and see what they are doing. Fortunately, GM/Chrysler doesn’t appear to be a larger employer in S.D. 🙂
It’s going to be a little more challenging probably for S.D. because there probably isn’t a highly focused concentration of one specific industry here in S.D. So you’ll probably need to figure out how each of the major bellweathers for each of the sectors are fairing. My gut feeling is the unemployment in S.D. (while it’s getting bad) isn’t nearly as bad as other parts of C.A. or parts of nation like Detroit. for that matter (yet). Namely, while retail/RE/construction/etc is looking bad, and biotech is looking bad, and some engineering is looking bad, you still have companies doing ok (defense companies for instance) at least for now.

—————

I believe San Diego’s unemployment rate is aroung 8.8%, which is slightly below the current 8.9% national unemployment rate, and lower than the 10.9% unemployment rate of the State of CA…..and much lower than the 13%+ unemployment rate in Detroit….(mind you, this is BEFORE any GM/Chrysler BK. I’ll say this much. those $5000-$8000 priced SFH’s in Detroit are no screaming deal.)

http://www.sandiegoreader.com/weblogs/financial-crime-politics/2009/mar/20/san-diego-unemployment-rises-to-88-in-february-but/

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

That said, I don’t believe we’re close to the bottom (we’re barely budging in some parts of S.D.)

[Coronita]

[quote]
There are a few reasons why I still believe this market has some room to drop. First off nationally unemployment will most likely hit 8.5%+ for the month of March, which we will hear in a few days. CA is well over 10% and climbing quick. We are now seeing the potential of GM and Chrysler filing BK, which will add to the already catastrophic numbers. Lending is still pretty tight in most areas except for the housing market, go figure. And we still have a huge amount of ghost inventory sitting with the banks.
[/quote]

In my opinion, unemployment(or underemployment) will have vastly different impact based on the locality versus nationally.

What i mean by this is that. You mentioned GM/Chrysler BKing….This mostly likely will have the biggest impact on Detriot,Ohio,etc. However, I doubt this particular company(ies) will have as much of an impact on S.D.

I guess the key to figure out for the S.D. market is how much is unemployment rampant in this area. Find out which are the bellweather company(ies) and see what they are doing. Fortunately, GM/Chrysler doesn’t appear to be a larger employer in S.D. 🙂
It’s going to be a little more challenging probably for S.D. because there probably isn’t a highly focused concentration of one specific industry here in S.D. So you’ll probably need to figure out how each of the major bellweathers for each of the sectors are fairing. My gut feeling is the unemployment in S.D. (while it’s getting bad) isn’t nearly as bad as other parts of C.A. or parts of nation like Detroit. for that matter (yet). Namely, while retail/RE/construction/etc is looking bad, and biotech is looking bad, and some engineering is looking bad, you still have companies doing ok (defense companies for instance) at least for now.

—————

I believe San Diego’s unemployment rate is aroung 8.8%, which is slightly below the current 8.9% national unemployment rate, and lower than the 10.9% unemployment rate of the State of CA…..and much lower than the 13%+ unemployment rate in Detroit….(mind you, this is BEFORE any GM/Chrysler BK. I’ll say this much. those $5000-$8000 priced SFH’s in Detroit are no screaming deal.)

http://www.sandiegoreader.com/weblogs/financial-crime-politics/2009/mar/20/san-diego-unemployment-rises-to-88-in-february-but/

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

That said, I don’t believe we’re close to the bottom (we’re barely budging in some parts of S.D.)

[Coronita]

[quote]
There are a few reasons why I still believe this market has some room to drop. First off nationally unemployment will most likely hit 8.5%+ for the month of March, which we will hear in a few days. CA is well over 10% and climbing quick. We are now seeing the potential of GM and Chrysler filing BK, which will add to the already catastrophic numbers. Lending is still pretty tight in most areas except for the housing market, go figure. And we still have a huge amount of ghost inventory sitting with the banks.
[/quote]

In my opinion, unemployment(or underemployment) will have vastly different impact based on the locality versus nationally.

What i mean by this is that. You mentioned GM/Chrysler BKing….This mostly likely will have the biggest impact on Detriot,Ohio,etc. However, I doubt this particular company(ies) will have as much of an impact on S.D.

I guess the key to figure out for the S.D. market is how much is unemployment rampant in this area. Find out which are the bellweather company(ies) and see what they are doing. Fortunately, GM/Chrysler doesn’t appear to be a larger employer in S.D. 🙂
It’s going to be a little more challenging probably for S.D. because there probably isn’t a highly focused concentration of one specific industry here in S.D. So you’ll probably need to figure out how each of the major bellweathers for each of the sectors are fairing. My gut feeling is the unemployment in S.D. (while it’s getting bad) isn’t nearly as bad as other parts of C.A. or parts of nation like Detroit. for that matter (yet). Namely, while retail/RE/construction/etc is looking bad, and biotech is looking bad, and some engineering is looking bad, you still have companies doing ok (defense companies for instance) at least for now.

—————

I believe San Diego’s unemployment rate is aroung 8.8%, which is slightly below the current 8.9% national unemployment rate, and lower than the 10.9% unemployment rate of the State of CA…..and much lower than the 13%+ unemployment rate in Detroit….(mind you, this is BEFORE any GM/Chrysler BK. I’ll say this much. those $5000-$8000 priced SFH’s in Detroit are no screaming deal.)

http://www.sandiegoreader.com/weblogs/financial-crime-politics/2009/mar/20/san-diego-unemployment-rises-to-88-in-february-but/

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

That said, I don’t believe we’re close to the bottom (we’re barely budging in some parts of S.D.)

[Coronita]

[quote]

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

[/quote]

Edit… Found it. Unemployment in Riverside County is 12%+.

http://www.scpr.org/news/stories/2009/03/05/19_riv_co_unemployment_.html

[Coronita]

[quote]

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

[/quote]

Edit… Found it. Unemployment in Riverside County is 12%+.

http://www.scpr.org/news/stories/2009/03/05/19_riv_co_unemployment_.html

[Coronita]

[quote]

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

[/quote]

Edit… Found it. Unemployment in Riverside County is 12%+.

http://www.scpr.org/news/stories/2009/03/05/19_riv_co_unemployment_.html

[Coronita]

[quote]

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

[/quote]

Edit… Found it. Unemployment in Riverside County is 12%+.

http://www.scpr.org/news/stories/2009/03/05/19_riv_co_unemployment_.html

[Coronita]

[quote]

Don’t know what the unemployment situation is Riverside County.

[/quote]

Edit… Found it. Unemployment in Riverside County is 12%+.

http://www.scpr.org/news/stories/2009/03/05/19_riv_co_unemployment_.html

[Coronita]

Here’s a “map” of unemployment rate across L.A. County.

http://la.metblogs.com/2009/03/17/mapping-las-unemployment-rates/

[Coronita]

Here’s a “map” of unemployment rate across L.A. County.

http://la.metblogs.com/2009/03/17/mapping-las-unemployment-rates/

[Coronita]

Here’s a “map” of unemployment rate across L.A. County.

http://la.metblogs.com/2009/03/17/mapping-las-unemployment-rates/

[Coronita]

Here’s a “map” of unemployment rate across L.A. County.

http://la.metblogs.com/2009/03/17/mapping-las-unemployment-rates/

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