Housing & economy doing great…shut down this site!

[PD]

Interest rates went down during the last crash and it did no good, yet people keep trotting this out as the magic elixir. Japan lowered rates to nearly zero and it did very little to revive their sick housing market.

It has been obvious for many years that we were about to enter a down cycle. I have been surprised however, by a couple of events that will make it even worse, IMO. First, there is the massive amount mortgage fraud taking place like the Murrietta scam. It has happened all over.

The second is the craziness we are seeing with the hedge funds, etc. It is clear that the appetite for investments in mortgages created a frenzy of bad loans, the likes of which we have never seen before. http://www.startribune.com/462/story/1236301.html

Although many things are the same, this bust will be different than the last one. Like last time, affordability is too high and must revert to closer to the mean. But many things are different. This bust is happening in a bottom up fashion. Instead of water pouring in from the top, it is seeping up from the bottom. The market will drown regardless of which direction the water comes from.

It is going to be worse this time.

[JWM in SD]

Great points PD. I think a lot of people are purposely ignoring what general direction rates are going in relative to housing prices given the market conditions. Rates are more likely to go up and not down. The dollar drops and Ben has to defend it with a rate hike. Inflation symptoms manifest in consumer goods prices and Ben can’t justify lowering.

I didn’t even want to mention the Fraud Layer that exists in all of SoCal real estate value right now. The inevitable response will be that it’s exclusive to Temecula, Murrietta and IE. Oh no, it’s not my clueless permabull friends. Everytime you see that the asking price of house has been raised after a series of price drops, that is an invitation for Cash Back Fraud pure and simple.

[JWM in SD]

Great points PD. I think a lot of people are purposely ignoring what general direction rates are going in relative to housing prices given the market conditions. Rates are more likely to go up and not down. The dollar drops and Ben has to defend it with a rate hike. Inflation symptoms manifest in consumer goods prices and Ben can’t justify lowering.

I didn’t even want to mention the Fraud Layer that exists in all of SoCal real estate value right now. The inevitable response will be that it’s exclusive to Temecula, Murrietta and IE. Oh no, it’s not my clueless permabull friends. Everytime you see that the asking price of house has been raised after a series of price drops, that is an invitation for Cash Back Fraud pure and simple.

[NateK]

Come on guys…No need to get all riled up over this guy. He’s just a troll. He has no sound data other than the median price. Ohhhh and I forgot about about those great LA times blogs.

Hey Scruffy,

I believe you also forgot to mention that “Life is Good in Amarillo”

http://piggington.com/life_is_good_in_amarillo

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Just read the Piggington motto pal:

In GOD We Trust…Everyone else bring data.

No one gives a rat’s @$$ about the median price and some blogs

[NateK]

Come on guys…No need to get all riled up over this guy. He’s just a troll. He has no sound data other than the median price. Ohhhh and I forgot about about those great LA times blogs.

Hey Scruffy,

I believe you also forgot to mention that “Life is Good in Amarillo”

http://piggington.com/life_is_good_in_amarillo

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Just read the Piggington motto pal:

In GOD We Trust…Everyone else bring data.

No one gives a rat’s @$$ about the median price and some blogs

[JWM in SD]

Nate,

Ordinarily I would agree with you but the problem is that there are a lot of newbies to the reality of the SD housing market and they are coming here to understand what’s going on. A good thing in my opinion. The problem is that there are troll posters like Scruffy Dog who’s sole intent is to misinform the newbies and attempt to make them think that we are doom and gloomers.

[JWM in SD]

Nate,

Ordinarily I would agree with you but the problem is that there are a lot of newbies to the reality of the SD housing market and they are coming here to understand what’s going on. A good thing in my opinion. The problem is that there are troll posters like Scruffy Dog who’s sole intent is to misinform the newbies and attempt to make them think that we are doom and gloomers.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I live on LA’s westside. It is true that the bubble has not yet popped here. Perhaps that is why scruffydog appears to be living on another planet. So far, it is another planet here. But there are signs of weakness all around. More marginal areas are starting to show weakness (e.g. Culver City, Mar Vista, Rancho Park) but the nicest areas like Santa Monica, Westwood and Brentwood seem to be holding up (so far).

LA’s westside market has been about 12-15 months behind San Diego. Think about what was happening in Spring 2006, people were just beginning to see losses in SD, and may not have realized that the peak was already established in Nov 2005.

This is a great time to make a bet with people in LA regarding housing. You are seeing in SD what LA will see a year from now.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I live on LA’s westside. It is true that the bubble has not yet popped here. Perhaps that is why scruffydog appears to be living on another planet. So far, it is another planet here. But there are signs of weakness all around. More marginal areas are starting to show weakness (e.g. Culver City, Mar Vista, Rancho Park) but the nicest areas like Santa Monica, Westwood and Brentwood seem to be holding up (so far).

LA’s westside market has been about 12-15 months behind San Diego. Think about what was happening in Spring 2006, people were just beginning to see losses in SD, and may not have realized that the peak was already established in Nov 2005.

This is a great time to make a bet with people in LA regarding housing. You are seeing in SD what LA will see a year from now.

[scruffydog]

So your data is a recent drop in CSI and increased inventory?
Ooo such compelling evidence of impending r/e collapse!

[scruffydog]

So your data is a recent drop in CSI and increased inventory?
Ooo such compelling evidence of impending r/e collapse!

[bob2007]

JWM,

I don’t think that anyone who shares their opinion should be called a troll. Should we all agree your view is the correct one, and the group go silent for 3 years waiting for it to play out? There are new people joining all the time. This is where they learn. When you lose your objectivity and start attacking the poster, I think is shows a lack of confidence in your belief.

[bob2007]

JWM,

I don’t think that anyone who shares their opinion should be called a troll. Should we all agree your view is the correct one, and the group go silent for 3 years waiting for it to play out? There are new people joining all the time. This is where they learn. When you lose your objectivity and start attacking the poster, I think is shows a lack of confidence in your belief.

[LA_Renter]

Scruffy,

You never responded to my post about the San Fernando Valley that you hailed is still going up in prices. Give us some analysis here.

[LA_Renter]

Scruffy,

You never responded to my post about the San Fernando Valley that you hailed is still going up in prices. Give us some analysis here.

[Author]

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