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The-Shoveler.
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July 5, 2007 at 11:00 AM #64064July 5, 2007 at 11:11 AM #64009
rb_engineer
ParticipantJWM, Hmm. Sounds like you are feeling the heat. Why are you being confrontational? We are just here to share our thoughts.
We’ve all seen theories (like the primer) and the stuff you mention. They are a piece of the puzzle but not the whole story. The economy is too large and complex to be modeled with foreclosure graphs and charts. That’s why we have economists, although I’m sure that you’ll say they are quacks.
I would love to get an opportunity to buy a charming La Jolla/Del Mar home with an ocean view but cheap enough for me to rent it out and still break even. Do you really think that will happen? I’m sure you’ll jump in and buy it before that happens.
July 5, 2007 at 11:11 AM #64066ParticipantJWM, Hmm. Sounds like you are feeling the heat. Why are you being confrontational? We are just here to share our thoughts.
We’ve all seen theories (like the primer) and the stuff you mention. They are a piece of the puzzle but not the whole story. The economy is too large and complex to be modeled with foreclosure graphs and charts. That’s why we have economists, although I’m sure that you’ll say they are quacks.
I would love to get an opportunity to buy a charming La Jolla/Del Mar home with an ocean view but cheap enough for me to rent it out and still break even. Do you really think that will happen? I’m sure you’ll jump in and buy it before that happens.
July 5, 2007 at 11:13 AM #64011kewp
ParticipantMy anecdotal take is that actual selling prices have come down 10% – 20% from the very peak but houses are getting snatched up very quickly if they are at these prices.
Maybe at the high end. I’ve said it before, rich folks with tons of equity will buy into something they know is overpriced, if they want it.
Must be nice to have options like that!
July 5, 2007 at 11:13 AM #64068ParticipantMy anecdotal take is that actual selling prices have come down 10% – 20% from the very peak but houses are getting snatched up very quickly if they are at these prices.
Maybe at the high end. I’ve said it before, rich folks with tons of equity will buy into something they know is overpriced, if they want it.
Must be nice to have options like that!
July 5, 2007 at 11:27 AM #64013no_such_reality
ParticipantMy anecdotal take is that actual selling prices have come down 10% – 20% from the very peak but houses are getting snatched up very quickly if they are at these prices.
I’ve seen that too, I think however that it only appears that way is because those that are “right priced” are so obvious. They’re the 5-10% of the market that is selling, 80% of the market still thinks it’s 2005, and the remaining 20% think it is 2007 which means 2006 wishing price +20%.
The right priced ones, come on and they sell in 30-60 days. In the better areas, maybe less. While everything with a wishing price languishes there for a year+. That makes it appear like snapping up.
The reality is, we still have 3000 sales a month of which ~2400 are resales. I’d guess only about 1000-1500 a month have “the right price” to start and are gone quickly and the rest “find the right price”. Hence, a right price is still going to move quickly because their is so much denial in the sellers on what the right price is. Literally, there’s a 10-20% price difference between them and the majority of the market and a 30-40% difference between them and those with wishing prices.
If the market ever gets back to the people trying to sell actually being in the ballpark for prices that will sell, that snapping won’t be obvious. And I suspect it will really drive prices down. If you have 2 homes priced at $800K in a former million dollar neighborhood, they move, when all the sellers figure it out and there’s now 20 for sale at $800K, $800K isn’t going to move’em.
July 5, 2007 at 11:27 AM #64070ParticipantMy anecdotal take is that actual selling prices have come down 10% – 20% from the very peak but houses are getting snatched up very quickly if they are at these prices.
I’ve seen that too, I think however that it only appears that way is because those that are “right priced” are so obvious. They’re the 5-10% of the market that is selling, 80% of the market still thinks it’s 2005, and the remaining 20% think it is 2007 which means 2006 wishing price +20%.
The right priced ones, come on and they sell in 30-60 days. In the better areas, maybe less. While everything with a wishing price languishes there for a year+. That makes it appear like snapping up.
The reality is, we still have 3000 sales a month of which ~2400 are resales. I’d guess only about 1000-1500 a month have “the right price” to start and are gone quickly and the rest “find the right price”. Hence, a right price is still going to move quickly because their is so much denial in the sellers on what the right price is. Literally, there’s a 10-20% price difference between them and the majority of the market and a 30-40% difference between them and those with wishing prices.
If the market ever gets back to the people trying to sell actually being in the ballpark for prices that will sell, that snapping won’t be obvious. And I suspect it will really drive prices down. If you have 2 homes priced at $800K in a former million dollar neighborhood, they move, when all the sellers figure it out and there’s now 20 for sale at $800K, $800K isn’t going to move’em.
July 5, 2007 at 11:29 AM #64015gn
Participantcyphire,
Just out of curiosity. Is the area that you mentioned Rancho Santa Fe ? If so, where in RSF (i.e. Cielo, the Groves …) ?
Thanks.
July 5, 2007 at 11:29 AM #64072Participantcyphire,
Just out of curiosity. Is the area that you mentioned Rancho Santa Fe ? If so, where in RSF (i.e. Cielo, the Groves …) ?
Thanks.
July 5, 2007 at 11:40 AM #64017JWM in SD
ParticipantOh you continue to crack me up RB Engineer. Heat? You mean like the heat an FB feels from an imminent loan reset? No, no such pressure for me.
Why am I confrontational? I’ll tell you exactly why. I’ve diligently saved for many years now and watched the value my savings decline relative to housing prices all as a result of a massive credit bubble blown by the Fed / Greenspan to stave off a recession back in 00 / 01. Where did the value of that savings go? It went to the scumbag realtors and DBag Mortgage Brokers so they could drive around in MBZs and BMWs pretending like they are real business people. Now that I see the tide turning and the ponzi scheme being exposed for wjat it really was, then I begin to have some hope that this country can reset its economy and right the ship again.
I have no debt, cash and time. What do the FBs have besides a stucco box and a mountain of debt ???
July 5, 2007 at 11:40 AM #64074ParticipantOh you continue to crack me up RB Engineer. Heat? You mean like the heat an FB feels from an imminent loan reset? No, no such pressure for me.
Why am I confrontational? I’ll tell you exactly why. I’ve diligently saved for many years now and watched the value my savings decline relative to housing prices all as a result of a massive credit bubble blown by the Fed / Greenspan to stave off a recession back in 00 / 01. Where did the value of that savings go? It went to the scumbag realtors and DBag Mortgage Brokers so they could drive around in MBZs and BMWs pretending like they are real business people. Now that I see the tide turning and the ponzi scheme being exposed for wjat it really was, then I begin to have some hope that this country can reset its economy and right the ship again.
I have no debt, cash and time. What do the FBs have besides a stucco box and a mountain of debt ???
July 5, 2007 at 11:48 AM #64021(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantPOP Quiz …
Thank you for livening up the discussion.
A simple multiple choice question for everyone
Question: In your opinion, which of the following is indicative of a “great housing market”
a. Highest number of sales in a decade, lowest number of defaults in a decade
b. Lowest number of sales in decade, lowest number of defaults in a decade
c. Lowest number of sales in a decade, highest number of defaults in a decade.If your answer is c, then yes the current housing market is “great”
Facts substantiated below …
“The number of default notices sent to California homeowners last quarter increased to its highest level in almost ten years…”
http://www.dqnews.com/RRFor0407.shtm“Last month was the slowest May for Southern California home sales in 12 years …”
http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0607.shtmJuly 5, 2007 at 11:48 AM #64078ParticipantPOP Quiz …
Thank you for livening up the discussion.
A simple multiple choice question for everyone
Question: In your opinion, which of the following is indicative of a “great housing market”
a. Highest number of sales in a decade, lowest number of defaults in a decade
b. Lowest number of sales in decade, lowest number of defaults in a decade
c. Lowest number of sales in a decade, highest number of defaults in a decade.If your answer is c, then yes the current housing market is “great”
Facts substantiated below …
“The number of default notices sent to California homeowners last quarter increased to its highest level in almost ten years…”
http://www.dqnews.com/RRFor0407.shtm“Last month was the slowest May for Southern California home sales in 12 years …”
http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0607.shtmJuly 5, 2007 at 12:05 PM #64027Tone
ParticipantSo the median price in the desirable parts of LA county is going up, eh?
Maybe, but how about Lakewood, a solidly middle class city just north of Long Beach? I’ve been following this home at 5325 E. Autry, 90712 (please very this on Zip Reality if you wish). It is a 2 bed, one bath 815 sq foot “cottage” that has NOT been upgraded. A home like this was selling for about $540k at the peak in 2005 (holy crow!). Anyhow, this home was put on sale in early April at a “2005 price” of $539 K.
Price History: $539 K initial listing
4/16 – reduced to $ 509K
6/1 – reduced to $ 493K
6/4 – reduced to $480KThe exact same house up the street at 5729 Auty 90712 is listed at $469K. The wording in the realtor notes indicates this home may be a bank sale. I’m not sure.
At any rate there has been a 13% drop ($539K to $469K) in the listing price for a low end Lakewood home this year already, and these homes are still not selling. And even if these homes do sell, it will be for less than what they’re asking — I’m guessing at least a 15% haircut is involved here if they make a sale now.
In my humblest of opinions, a 15% price drop sounds like a crash.
I think paying $540K for a 2 bed/1 bath cracker box in Lakewood is outrageous. $469K is still outrageous. These are the exact type of homes that an early career teacher or fire fighter should be able to afford. They cannot and this is why the market still needs to correct further… alot further, IMHO.
July 5, 2007 at 12:05 PM #64084ParticipantSo the median price in the desirable parts of LA county is going up, eh?
Maybe, but how about Lakewood, a solidly middle class city just north of Long Beach? I’ve been following this home at 5325 E. Autry, 90712 (please very this on Zip Reality if you wish). It is a 2 bed, one bath 815 sq foot “cottage” that has NOT been upgraded. A home like this was selling for about $540k at the peak in 2005 (holy crow!). Anyhow, this home was put on sale in early April at a “2005 price” of $539 K.
Price History: $539 K initial listing
4/16 – reduced to $ 509K
6/1 – reduced to $ 493K
6/4 – reduced to $480KThe exact same house up the street at 5729 Auty 90712 is listed at $469K. The wording in the realtor notes indicates this home may be a bank sale. I’m not sure.
At any rate there has been a 13% drop ($539K to $469K) in the listing price for a low end Lakewood home this year already, and these homes are still not selling. And even if these homes do sell, it will be for less than what they’re asking — I’m guessing at least a 15% haircut is involved here if they make a sale now.
In my humblest of opinions, a 15% price drop sounds like a crash.
I think paying $540K for a 2 bed/1 bath cracker box in Lakewood is outrageous. $469K is still outrageous. These are the exact type of homes that an early career teacher or fire fighter should be able to afford. They cannot and this is why the market still needs to correct further… alot further, IMHO.
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