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November 19, 2012 at 9:57 AM #20294November 19, 2012 at 11:33 AM #754905
spdrun
ParticipantMaybe the Middle Eastern fun and $7+/gal gas across the USA will throw a monkey wrench in that timeline.
November 19, 2012 at 12:19 PM #754906livinincali
Participant[quote=spdrun]Maybe the Middle Eastern fun and $7+/gal gas across the USA will throw a monkey wrench in that timeline.[/quote]
I think the fact that we’ve never gone more than 10 years without a significant recession is the biggest problem. We’re almost 4 years removed from the last recession, how long do we really have left before the next one hits? My bet would be that we’re no where near to fully recovered before we get hit by the next one. We’ll also be out of significant policy options. The next real recession is going to suck because there’s really no meaningful stimulus left.
November 19, 2012 at 12:29 PM #754908spdrun
ParticipantGood – should be fun to see Bennie eating that crow stew.
November 21, 2012 at 3:01 AM #755041CA renter
ParticipantThat looks like a pretty reasonable timeline, BG. Thanks for sharing it.
November 21, 2012 at 9:49 PM #755101paramount
ParticipantIt’s not reasonable, no accounting for future recessions for starters.
If were not in a recession right now, we probably will be in the near future based on history.
November 22, 2012 at 12:56 AM #755106CA renter
Participant[quote=paramount]It’s not reasonable, no accounting for future recessions for starters.
If were not in a recession right now, we probably will be in the near future based on history.[/quote]
Maybe I’m reading it with a “pessimistic” bias, but I certainly didn’t see anything that would indicate we’re off to the races from here. The reason it looks pretty reasonable is because it shows a pretty stagnant (or declining) market. It’s specifically because of its more subdued outlook that I thought it was reasonable.
It doesn’t see a bottom until 2016-2017, if I’m reading that correctly, and even then, it’s not saying that prices are going to rocket up. It shows prices staying below the bubble peak until 2025, which seems far more reasonable than the Kool-Aide drinkers on CNBC, etc., who talk about the housing market (and the economy in general) as if we are at “THE” bottom and ready to resume rocket-trajectory price increases any day now.
Needless to say, I agree with you about a recession/depression, and think that we never got out of the recession that began in 2000/2001, no matter what the “official” definitions and “expert opinions” say.
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