Ground truth

[frugle]

I am transferring to San Diego next May. Realtors I speak to typically say now is a good time to purchase as prices have steadied, interest rates are low, typical market correction, expect small growth from here, etc. However, yesterday a realtor said she was glad I am not buying now. Six months is better and one year from now is even a better due to barrowers having “creative financing” coming due in this timeframe. This matches my personnal view and is similar to the views I have read on this site. That being said, I have not seen any significant downward trends in home prices while reviewing realtor websites the past 3-4 months (concentrating in the 450-600K range in areas covering PUSD). My questions to those much closer to the market are: 1. When will significant price reductions be noticeable (if at all)? 2. What type of price correction percentage should be expected in the next 6-12 months/12-24 months? 3. What do you think will drive the price reductions? Thanks in advance for your insight.

[powayseller]

Prices are dropping in my Poway townhome neighborhood every month. Why do you think prices are not dropping? Check Sold prices, not listings. Ask your realtor to give you the Solds in your price range over the last 4 months, and notice the lower price/sq ft, dropping every month. It’s hard to predict how fast it will decline. I think it depends on several factors: how many people will keep leaving San Diego, the number of listings, the quality of listings (how many are vacant, REO, distress sales, moving), sales… Months supply keeps rising. The longer you wait, the cheaper it gets. I sold my Poway house and am renting; signed a 2 year lease this summer. My 3 kids are very happy in this rental. I suggest you rent for 2-5 years.

[frugle]

Powayseller, that input is what I am looking for. A local view. Good point, my only data is the “listing prices”. I am not currently working with a realtor, can you recommend a site to find “sold prices”? I understand the difficulty in predicting prices, we would all be rich if that were the case. However, you have recommended waiting 2-5 years before purchase. What are you seeing there that helped you form that opinion? BTW, I do think prices are moving lower. But I have not seen significant downward movement in “listing prices” for the areas I have been following.

[PerryChase]

powayseller is right. The right time to buy is at least 2 years away in my view. Don’t bother working working with a realtor for now. She/He will just “pressure” you to buy by showing you listings and telling you about the “good deals.”

Just sign up with zipreaty.com (free) and track the homes that you like on there. Then cross check with zillow.com for sold and comps. Also go to the SD County website to check sold prices if not yet available on Zillow.

http://www.sdarcc.com/arcc/services/propsales_search.aspx

If you do this for 2-3 months. You’ll see that prices are dropping. You’ll notice the following:

1. Houses that you like are not selling.
2. Prices are periodically reduced.
3. Days on Market is stretching longer.
4. More sellers are getting under-water or close to it.
5. People are pulling their homes of the market and relisting to manipulate DOM.

My suggestion is a simple thing to do until you move to San Diego. Then when in SD, rent for a while and continue looking. You’ll know it when it’s the right time for you to buy. Don’t buy until you feel 100% certain.

BTW, zip realty also assigns you a realtor. You can ask that person to provide you sold listings. The nice thing about Zip is that they don’t really bother you as everything is done by email (tell them you’re too busy to be reached by phone).

Of course, there’s also Pigginton as a resource.

[powayseller]

The reason I suggest waiting 2-5 years is the historic housing cycles in San Diego last 5-7 years up, 5-7 years down. Rich’s Bubble Primer is a classic. Look at his charts, and extrapolate 5 years out.

One caution – the rental market is extremely tight right now. Vacancies are low in rentals, and landlords have been able to command big price increases. People are turning to rentals instead of buying, making the rental market squeezed. We haven’t built apartments in a decade, and many apartments were converted to condos for sale, thus reducing apartment rental stock even further. In the long run, reduced population should ease this condition.

[sdcellar]

Perry’s recommended methodology works well. ZipRealty lets you save searches so I keep two versions of each area I’m interested in, one with all properties and the other with reduced prices. I’m interested in the same area you are and I can tell you that half of the properties listed have reduced prices.

This doesn’t help when people relist, but you can see that for yourself as you start tracking properties. And again, listing prices are what they are; what you really need to look at is solds, and solds are down and prices are down.

[sdcellar]

The rental market doesn’t seem tight to me and we just got into a place, so I *think* I’ve got a good feel for the area you’re interested in.

That said, since you’ve got until May, just start following the listings in craigslist:

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/apa

Good searches for you:
poway, penasquitos, 4s, ranch, sur, carmel, torrey

[Anonymous]

Suggest you visit bubbleinfo.com run by Jim the Realtor. He is very well versed in SD real estate and knows the market well. I am in Las Vegas, but if I was interested in SD real estate, he would definitely be at the top of my list. View his videos and read some of the archived articles. I am confident he will give you the straight scoop — and I never met him nor have any connection to him other than reading his blog.

[PerryChase]

I also read Jim the Realtor’s site. He sounds like a person who is well aware of the market. I beleive that he only sells North County Coastal.

The problem with working with a Realtor right now is that the Realtor always has an expectation of making a sale (that’s the only way he gets paid). No one will work with you for a sale in 5 years! They’ll think you’re not serious.

Sure a Realtor will find you a good deal right now. But will that deal remain a good deal if the market continues to decline?

Jim also wrote that “superior” properties will only decline 10%. Will he want to sell you a “superior” property so that you’re insulated from a decline? Can a buyer today be insulated? I don’t think so. I beleive that all properties will decline at least 40%-50%. It’ll happen at different times in different neighborhoods.

[Anonymous]

Anecdote on the rental market: we just signed a two year extension on our lease with no increase in rent. Rent for our small but comfortable 3 BR/1.5 BA here in La Jolla, with a great backyard suitable for pitching and hitting practice (with wiffle balls) was $2,600 in ’05 and is/will be $2,650 over ’06-’08.

[CardiffBaseball]

We soft toss wiffles with a small wooden dowel (broomstick size) into the Stucco. Seems that this stuff is pretty durable. The small bat forces you to find the sweet spot. As a renter I hope we don’t damage the stucco, but my guess is these wiffles won’t because it’s too tough and the balls just bounce off.

Some would say to go to a park for this stuff but good luck finding an open park where you can play a little ball. Be glad you have a place where the kids can play I know I am.

[frugle]

Thanks for all the great info and advice. This site is a great resorce for those of us out of town and your efforts advice and insight are appreciated.

[Anonymous]

Watching housing price change is like watching paint dry.

But believe it, it IS drying.

Patience WILL pay off for you in this market.

Remember, even a half of a percent change in prices is a few thousand bucks.

[Author]

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