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livinincali.
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February 24, 2012 at 12:50 PM #738634February 24, 2012 at 1:27 PM #738639
Anonymous
Guest[quote]Anybody got thoughts on investment strategies to exploit the oil situation?[/quote]
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/
Good luck swimming with the sharks.
February 24, 2012 at 1:32 PM #738640briansd1
Guest[quote=Bubblesitter] I put the odds of Isreali attack on Iran at 50% this year. [/quote]
I put the odds of Israel attacking Iran close to 0%.
Israel is bluffing and we need to call their bluff.
one fact is often overlooked: U.S. intelligence agencies don’t believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb.
A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-intel-20120224,0,5827032.storyIt’s pretty sad that a small country like Israel is dictating so much of our foreign policy. After all, aren’t we the super power, and not Israel?
It seems like the welfare of Israel trumps the welfare of everybody else in the region and the world.
February 24, 2012 at 2:41 PM #738643Bubblesitter
ParticipantI bet Isreal is hoping US gets pulled into it.
They may be bluffing as they probably don’t have capability to do it alone.
Here’s scenario…
US and Iran have Strait of Hormuz Naval incident. Iranian vessal sinks.
Israel launches airstrike against Iranian Nuke facilities.Iran lashes out and strikes some US assets. Pressure will be intense for US to finish the job with our newly acquired super bunker busting MOP, massive ordinance penetrator.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE80B22020120112?irpc=932
I’m sure the pentagon scenario planners are looking into this.
February 24, 2012 at 3:37 PM #738646Guest[quote=Bubblesitter]I bet Isreal is hoping US gets pulled into it.
They may be bluffing as they probably don’t have capability to do it alone.
[/quote]That’s the thing, Israel is hoping that we do their dirty work, then we own the whole shebang.
Iran does not threaten us in any way… We’d be stupid to get pulled into the conflict, then we have to fight the war and pay for it. Great deal for Israel, but bad deal for us and the rest of the world.
I believe that Israel, as it currently stands, is demographically in an untenable position. My feeling is that we’ve done enough for Israel over decades. It’s time that Israel takes care of itself and makes the necessary adjustments to live peacefully with its neighbors. We should make friends and do business with everybody in region equally and let them sort out their own problems.
The Arab world is experiencing tremendous population growth. It represents growth opportunity for the world and a big market for our corporations. By siding with Israel we are damaging our own reputation and brand.
February 24, 2012 at 5:15 PM #738652ucodegen
Participant[quote briansd1]Iran does not threaten us in any way… We’d be stupid to get pulled into the conflict, then we have to fight the war and pay for it. Great deal for Israel, but bad deal for us and the rest of the world.[/quote] The true answer is ‘yes and no’. They would be stupid to face us directly. They may try behind the scenes to cause damage and make it look like someone else(check recent events – nobody gets C4 easily without military access). But if you consider Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s background, don’t bet against him doing something stupid, really stupid. Also note that the true force ‘behind the presidency’ is “Supreme Leader of Iran”(Ali Khamenei). He is the one to really watch. The question is, will Ali Khamenei decide to rein in Ahmadinejad before he does something really stupid, or will Ali Khamenei operate through Ahmadinejad letting him be the fall guy.
I place most of the recent Iranian events as saber rattling to distract from issues within Iranian borders. Saber rattling is a stupid thing to do because it relies on the other party thinking that your ‘threats’ are not real… which then sort of defeats the whole point of the saber rattling.
February 24, 2012 at 8:00 PM #738650Participant[quote briansd1]
A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003.
[/quote]You mean the same intelligence agency that fumbled 9/11?
What may have actually set Iran back is the STUXNET worm. Very interesting and targeted piece of coding. I find it interesting compairing the claims of the intelligence assessment against the statements of Gary Samore, White House Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction. (see PBS “Need to Know” – May 2011)
February 25, 2012 at 5:17 AM #738673ParticipantWow, the more I read about the MOP Massive Ordnance Penetrator the more I’m impressed. This is one mean mother. I bet 2 successive MOPs can clean up any hardened underground nuke site. This new weapon is now in a strange way part of the oil price equation.
http://www.gizmag.com/massive-ordnance-penetrator-mop-gbu-57ab/20538/
February 25, 2012 at 5:38 AM #738675ParticipantObama administration already sold Isrealis bunker busting bomb, an older variety than MOP. Isrealis done have the aircraft anyway to deliver a MOP.
All the above reasons along with an increasingly strident Iran is reason I pegged the odds of a conflict induced oil shock uncomfortably high this year.
February 26, 2012 at 2:15 PM #738721Participant[quote=Bubblesitter]Wow, the more I read about the MOP Massive Ordnance Penetrator the more I’m impressed. This is one mean mother. I bet 2 successive MOPs can clean up any hardened underground nuke site. This new weapon is now in a strange way part of the oil price equation.
http://www.gizmag.com/massive-ordnance-penetrator-mop-gbu-57ab/20538/ [/quote]
The background on image 31, “GBU-57A/B without its fins” looks interesting. Looks like a certain special place, photog’d NNW.February 26, 2012 at 4:20 PM #738741Arraya
ParticipantPeak oil dynamics peppered with a little geopolitical tension and speculators that bet on it.
It looks to be about $120 per barrel that puts a break on growth and throws us into recession.
Hey Brian, this is for you:
March 6, 2012 at 4:21 AM #739343ParticipantThe drumbeats of war are getting louder. I was watching Netenyahu’s AIPAC speech last night on fox. It was a bit chilling. Congress has essentially given Isreal green light. Ron Paul aside, all the Republican candidates are saying go attack. Obama is softening opposition to Isreali attack despite recent furious efforts to convince them otherwise.
I’m sticking with current odds putting Isreali attack at 50%. If this happens it is likely we will get sucked in. Here comes recession and who knows wha
Hopefully the brinkmanship will bring credible Iranian concessions on nuclear program, but I have a sinking feeling it is already too late.
August 5, 2012 at 4:05 AM #749496ParticipantThe pressure on Iran seems to be ratcheting up in recent weeks, even tighter sanctions. Bad cop Obama trying to be bested by even Badder cop Romney. Romney essentially giving Isreal the green light to go after Iranian nukes.
All this may induce Iran back to the bargaining table, but with all the military hardware now in the Persian Gulf, the chances of rapid escalation is higher now.
Still holding on to bunch of non-mideast oil, and oil services companies as a hedge.
If shit hits the fan, at least these may rise as rest of portfolio tanks as we head into oil shock induced recession.
Bubblesitter
August 5, 2012 at 4:37 AM #749497ParticipantSanctions are taking a bite already will big drop in Iranian oil exports, they are filling up all their storage capacity. They have to continue to pump because oil rigs are damaged if you stop production.
[quote=Bubblesitter]The geopolitical oil wildcard is now in play this year.
US just signed into law very tough sanctions targeting the Iranian Central bank, making it much more difficult for Iran to sell oil.
Last week the EU also imposed tough sanctions, curtailing Iranian Oil purchases.
Iran is threating US Navy in Straits of Hormuz, and warning Arab nations not to “fill the gap” in reduced global supplies. Charges and counter charges of covert war, assasinations and assasination attempts.
The EU and US sanctions really start taking a bite in about 6 months, during peak summer driving season.
Iranians may not have much to lose by trying to block Strait of Hormuz, if they can’t sell much oil anyway.
Will an oil shock put US in recession? How will it ripple thru economy? Housing impact?
It will be an interesting year in Oil geopolitics, may impact us all.
Bubblesitter[/quote]
August 5, 2012 at 5:18 PM #749517CA renter
ParticipantGood posts, Bubblesitter. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Lot’s of “stuff” going on these days.
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