Free Inflection Point Forecasting Model

[citydweller]

jg, there was a link to this thread over at Calculated Risk. Have you updated these charts lately?

[citydweller]

jg, there was a link to this thread over at Calculated Risk. Have you updated these charts lately?

[citydweller]

jg, there was a link to this thread over at Calculated Risk. Have you updated these charts lately?

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

[stansd]

Interesting stuff, JG:

Any chance you could post the latest independent variables for this model-I’m curious to take a peak at sensitivities. For example, is the NOD number for December 2,784 (county number), or a smaller city number?

I’m curious if we see NOD’s rise 1,000 like we have over the last year, if that immplies (very roughly) a decline in median price of 20K 20-30 months from now, ceteris paribus.

Similar, we’ve seen sales decline by around 1,000/mo. over the last year, so I’m trying to figure out if that implies a 15K reduction in price (3*1,000*-5.3).

If I also knew the employment numbers, that would tell me what a 1% change in the unemployment rate would mean.

I’m not sure I’ve got those numbers right, though-my chief conclusion is that a continued rise in NOD’s will fuel some further declines, but fundamentally, we aren’t far from where employment really becomes the chief driver of additional distress (assumption being that NOD’s and Sales will stabilize in the next 6 months)

Stan

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg has not posted here in many months. He provided a lot of data and insight. But, at some point last year he got involved in a lot of politics/religion banter that ended up with him essentially leaving. Hope he still reads this site, though.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg has not posted here in many months. He provided a lot of data and insight. But, at some point last year he got involved in a lot of politics/religion banter that ended up with him essentially leaving. Hope he still reads this site, though.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg has not posted here in many months. He provided a lot of data and insight. But, at some point last year he got involved in a lot of politics/religion banter that ended up with him essentially leaving. Hope he still reads this site, though.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg has not posted here in many months. He provided a lot of data and insight. But, at some point last year he got involved in a lot of politics/religion banter that ended up with him essentially leaving. Hope he still reads this site, though.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

jg has not posted here in many months. He provided a lot of data and insight. But, at some point last year he got involved in a lot of politics/religion banter that ended up with him essentially leaving. Hope he still reads this site, though.

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