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an.
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January 30, 2012 at 3:18 PM #736993January 30, 2012 at 3:51 PM #736995
bearishgurl
Participant[quote=SD Realtor]…What will happen will be that the burden of overall debt will break the back of this camel…[/quote]
How (and when, if you know) do you think this camel’s broken back will ultimately play out, SDR?
January 30, 2012 at 3:52 PM #736996scaredyclassic
ParticipantMy point was my dad thought disaster was around the corner and 30 years went by. And it’s still limping along.
If not by the endvof the tear can you commit to a prediction if 2 years out? 5 years out? Ten?
Without some time line, you sound like my dad. Disasters coming, somewhere out there but it may be do far off, it’s like predictingvrain.
Who cares???
January 30, 2012 at 5:08 PM #736999markmax33
Guest[quote=walterwhite]My point was my dad thought disaster was around the corner and 30 years went by. And it’s still limping along.
If not by the endvof the tear can you commit to a prediction if 2 years out? 5 years out? Ten?
Without some time line, you sound like my dad. Disasters coming, somewhere out there but it may be do far off, it’s like predictingvrain.
Who cares???[/quote]
I understand your point 100% and I was giving you a sarcastic response to your sarcastic comment. There was a housing bubble deflation within 10 years of your father’s prediction. Sounded like a smart guy.
January 30, 2012 at 5:30 PM #737001Guest[quote=sdrealtor]
You can see whatever you like as well but the data tells adifferent story on job/population growth. As for incomes, you can talk all the medians you want. We spent a long time at the birth of this blog explaining how medians are almost useless in analyzing what is really going on at the street level. I see tax returns all the time for ordinary folks making extraordinary incomes that smash any thing related to medians. You do know that those with higher incomes are most likely to underreport their income? Dont you?
[/quote]You put your anecdotal evidence as a Realtor over a measurement that has atleast a small amount of stastical validity? You can not claim the statistical mean has less value than your .0000001 statistcally valid data.
C’Mon Man!
[quote=sdrealtor]
bTW, you didnt refrain you did LOL. I didnt say they dont crash. I said they behaved differently which is not a point you can argue or LOL. They have controlled much of this already. They havent stopped a decline but they have limited it and impacted the timing in a way only an idiot would try to say didnt happen. And who cares what they said about the existence of a bubble. They knew it and we know they knew it. Creating it is just another example of how they can manipulate and control things. Dont you see that side of things?
[/quote]They limited the impact permenantly?
I have a bridge in Brooklyn I can sell you too.C’Mon Man!
[quote=sdrealtor]
As for the corrections, I would think we’ll all agree that the tech and houing bubble corrections were far
from unforeseen.
[/quote]We agree there is huge risk still in the market that isn’t completely contained with no timeframe of when it will hit.
[quote=sdrealtor]
FWIW, my retirement portfolio hasnt had a down year in over a decade. Dont think I didnt see this all coming and position myself properly? How did your investments do over the past 10 years?[/quote]I gaurentee I killed your portfollio. No offense but I bought AAPL at like $25, Chipotle at like $40 shortly after IPO, GOLD at like $25, MA shortly after IPO, and several other stocks that are up 400% over 6 or 7 years. I didn’t understand how to short or take options on the subprime homelenders because I didn’t have the cash at age 24 but I talked about it with my friends for hours.
Don’t sit here and tell me your stock advice or imply you know more than me. I promise you that I dropped in a few of the years but that I’m ahead overall. If you claim you can predict timing that is proof you are full of it. You certianly wouldn’t be slinging houses still.
In your infinite wisdom SDR – were you shorting subprime lenders at the same time you were making subprime home loans? I’m really curious?
January 30, 2012 at 5:31 PM #737002Anonymous
GuestSpeaking of “infinite wisdom” – you do know that realtors aren’t the same thing as mortgage brokers?
mm33, your stock picks remind me of my aunt that likes to go to Pechanga. She must be very wealthy by now, because she always tells me about the times she has won, and has never mentioned a losing day.
January 30, 2012 at 5:38 PM #737003SD Realtor
ParticipantI don’t know BG… I just don’t know.
I think the catalyst will begin with foreign creditors moving out of the auctions. I don’t really know what triggers that and have given up trying to prognosticate on it. It could be when our debt service to gdp ratio hits some trigger point. It could be a geopolitical conflict… It could be a certain low that the dollar hits…
I never really thought that we could fool the world this long. However as pr and even brian have pointed out, there are not many alternatives out there.
There will be someday though.
***********
Lets not forget, some of it is already slowly playing out. Look at prices of food/water/utilities over the past few years.
January 30, 2012 at 5:58 PM #737006desmond
ParticipantHey guys I had a great weekend, anybody else?
January 30, 2012 at 5:59 PM #737005SK in CV
Participant[quote=markmax33]
I gaurentee I killed your portfollio. No offense but I bought AAPL at like $25, Chipotle at like $40 shortly after IPO, GOLD at like $25, MA shortly after IPO, and several other stocks that are up 400% over 6 or 7 years. I didn’t understand how to short or take options on the subprime homelenders because I didn’t have the cash at age 24 but I talked about it with my friends for hours.[/quote]
Gold at $25? Really? When you were like -10 years old?
January 30, 2012 at 6:28 PM #737008Participantjackie mason had a good line, something like, every jew in New York has a story about a building he couldve bought for a nickel. “You see that building? I could’ve bought it for a nickel!”
well, anyway, all the borownstones where I was growing up early on, couldve been bought for a nickel, or a few thousand, and are millions now.
I think what you’re saying if you have a near term real estate crash prediction is US DOLLARS issued by the GOV are about to become extremely valuable. Like you will need much fewer of them to buy bitching real estate.
Jackie Mason, Ron paul and recent history don’t really support this proposition.
January 30, 2012 at 6:38 PM #737009Participantyou couldve easily lost any money you made shorting homebuilders if you were a bit off in your timing.
since you cannot tell when the next crash is coming, why would you ahve been able to predict when to short homebuilders.
January 30, 2012 at 6:39 PM #737010Guest[quote=SK in CV][quote=markmax33]
I gaurentee I killed your portfollio. No offense but I bought AAPL at like $25, Chipotle at like $40 shortly after IPO, GOLD at like $25, MA shortly after IPO, and several other stocks that are up 400% over 6 or 7 years. I didn’t understand how to short or take options on the subprime homelenders because I didn’t have the cash at age 24 but I talked about it with my friends for hours.[/quote]
Gold at $25? Really? When you were like -10 years old?[/quote]
GOLD is a stock. Rangold is a Miner.
January 30, 2012 at 6:41 PM #737011Guest[quote=walterwhite]you couldve easily lost any money you made shorting homebuilders if you were a bit off in your timing.
since you cannot tell when the next crash is coming, why would you ahve been able to predict when to short homebuilders.[/quote]
That’s exactly why I didn’t do it. I wasn’t sure of how to do it properly. I would have taken options spread out over 6 months time frames and stayed diversified in retrospect. I would have spread them over 3 years+.
I was curious is our Boy Wonder Genius predicted everything and never made a bad investment Realtor bet on his prediction.
January 30, 2012 at 7:56 PM #737012Reality
Participant[quote=pri_dk]
mm33, your stock picks remind me of my aunt that likes to go to Pechanga. She must be very wealthy by now, because she always tells me about the times she has won, and has never mentioned a losing day.[/quote]I bet that’s not what she tells the IRS. 🙂
January 30, 2012 at 8:18 PM #737013sdrealtor
ParticipantNow I get to LOL you. We were talking median and then you switched to some argument on the mean. Sorry dude but I know the difference do you?
If you want to talk stock portfolios and put yours up against mine its only fair to let you know that I bought Microsoft in 1987 and have a cost basis of about 20 cents a share. You can have your AAPL 10 to 20 baggers. BTW, I was 24 in 1987 and already had lots of money. Now I have alot more. You’ll never catch me.
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