Downgrading my 2018 forecast for SD RE to 6%

[gzz]

I still think it will be a solid year of gains. And a 6% gain on a 700k house in dollar terms (42k) would be better than the same house 6 years ago going up 10% from 400 to 440.

But 4.6% 30 year mortgages are going to take a little wind out of our sails.

The wildcard remains the crazy-low inventory levels and time on market.

[spdrun]

Over 5% by the end of this year would be great — force ARM HELOCers to sell.

[FlyerInHi]

6% appreciation sounds about right to me.
Low inventory and rising rents are key.

Not in San Diego… I am looking at a 4 Plex. 6 cash offers in 1 day on market.

[42nate1]

Currently in Escrow in San Diego

House was on the market for 2 days. The open house was busy when we were there.
We had to offer substantially above list price, and higher than anything sold recently to get the property.

We’ve lost two others in recent months for the same reasons. With the inventory reality in SD, no way do prices only appreciate 6% in 2018.

[gzz]

SPDRUN, i am sure there are a few out there, I never met a long term investor who buys with an ARM. And I think I speak for most of us in saying we now feel like our 3.5% fixed 30-years as assets we are almost as attached to as the appreciated property and locked in low tax valuation.

Nate,

We had these very low inventories and bidding wars in 2017 too, and only came in at 8% gain for the year.

The tax advantage of owning your principal residence is still large and makes owning better than renting, and the tax bill has other new provisions benefiting REITs, who mostly focus on large complexes. But the value proposition we saw 2010-2017 where most San Diego properties outside the very high end made sense as investment rentals to people with access to prime financing and basic property management skills just isn’t there with rates this high.

I hope I am wrong and we go up 20% instead. And in fact San Diego’s price gains have come in well below other major cities, so it is possible we see some of the best price growth in the USA as we get revert to our historic premium or discount to other parts of the Western USA. It is kind of shocking to see how much rent is now in metros that used to be cheaper than here, and now are about the same (e.g., Miami, Denver). Even famously cheap metros like Phoenix and Austin and Dallas are getting expensive.

[flyer]

Have seen quite a few boom and bust cycles in my 25+ years of investing in San Diego as well as real estate in other locations, but the extreme lack of inventory issue does put a different spin on things. Will be interesting to see what the next decade holds.

[Author]

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