Dow Drops to 13042 at week’s end. Let’s make bets and discuss at next meet up…

[CAwireman]

Will it go to down to 12000? 11000?

What’s your guess?

http://money.aol.com/marketnews

[drunkle]

s&p 500 at 700 by end of summer.

[drunkle]

s&p 500 at 700 by end of summer.

[drunkle]

s&p 500 at 700 by end of summer.

[drunkle]

s&p 500 at 700 by end of summer.

[stockstradr]

I placed my bets (on the downside of market) many months ago, and everything is proceeding perfectly on plan and that is a wonderful feeling.

I view it as inevitable we’ll see 1300 on S&P 500 within six months.

I see 1300 before the year’s end as distinct possibility, but I’m not counting on it happening.

My portfolio:
20% GLD
The rest is a mixture of very aggressively bearish put option positions on indexes, some 2X leveraged bear funds, some 1X leveraged bear funds, and a few puts on oil. Yes that is an insanely risky portfolio, but it IS paying off.

Everything is sunny except those oil puts, and those will turn around during the next twelve months as the unfolding global recession reduces demand for oil.

[stockstradr]

I placed my bets (on the downside of market) many months ago, and everything is proceeding perfectly on plan and that is a wonderful feeling.

I view it as inevitable we’ll see 1300 on S&P 500 within six months.

I see 1300 before the year’s end as distinct possibility, but I’m not counting on it happening.

My portfolio:
20% GLD
The rest is a mixture of very aggressively bearish put option positions on indexes, some 2X leveraged bear funds, some 1X leveraged bear funds, and a few puts on oil. Yes that is an insanely risky portfolio, but it IS paying off.

Everything is sunny except those oil puts, and those will turn around during the next twelve months as the unfolding global recession reduces demand for oil.

[stockstradr]

I placed my bets (on the downside of market) many months ago, and everything is proceeding perfectly on plan and that is a wonderful feeling.

I view it as inevitable we’ll see 1300 on S&P 500 within six months.

I see 1300 before the year’s end as distinct possibility, but I’m not counting on it happening.

My portfolio:
20% GLD
The rest is a mixture of very aggressively bearish put option positions on indexes, some 2X leveraged bear funds, some 1X leveraged bear funds, and a few puts on oil. Yes that is an insanely risky portfolio, but it IS paying off.

Everything is sunny except those oil puts, and those will turn around during the next twelve months as the unfolding global recession reduces demand for oil.

[stockstradr]

I placed my bets (on the downside of market) many months ago, and everything is proceeding perfectly on plan and that is a wonderful feeling.

I view it as inevitable we’ll see 1300 on S&P 500 within six months.

I see 1300 before the year’s end as distinct possibility, but I’m not counting on it happening.

My portfolio:
20% GLD
The rest is a mixture of very aggressively bearish put option positions on indexes, some 2X leveraged bear funds, some 1X leveraged bear funds, and a few puts on oil. Yes that is an insanely risky portfolio, but it IS paying off.

Everything is sunny except those oil puts, and those will turn around during the next twelve months as the unfolding global recession reduces demand for oil.

[cr]

Who knows in this market anymore. We could rally from here, or not stop until we hit 11,000. It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we’re 1000pts down.

I think Black Friday retail sales results will be viewed as indicative of the consumer’s strength, and IMO it’s not good.

Another rate cut, might produce another one day rally, but year end reporting is probably going to be dismal.

[cr]

Who knows in this market anymore. We could rally from here, or not stop until we hit 11,000. It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we’re 1000pts down.

I think Black Friday retail sales results will be viewed as indicative of the consumer’s strength, and IMO it’s not good.

Another rate cut, might produce another one day rally, but year end reporting is probably going to be dismal.

[cr]

Who knows in this market anymore. We could rally from here, or not stop until we hit 11,000. It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we’re 1000pts down.

I think Black Friday retail sales results will be viewed as indicative of the consumer’s strength, and IMO it’s not good.

Another rate cut, might produce another one day rally, but year end reporting is probably going to be dismal.

[cr]

Who knows in this market anymore. We could rally from here, or not stop until we hit 11,000. It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we’re 1000pts down.

I think Black Friday retail sales results will be viewed as indicative of the consumer’s strength, and IMO it’s not good.

Another rate cut, might produce another one day rally, but year end reporting is probably going to be dismal.

[LA_Renter]

“It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we’re 1000pts down.”

That high of 14,164 occurred after the summer credit crunch sent the Dow to about 12,500 in mid August. Some reasons we saw the rally to over 14k is that the Fed began easing starting with a 50 bps cut and the street made the assumption that the Financials threw the kitchen sink into third quarter earnings thus the worst of the credit crunch had passed (and we all lived happily ever after). The true reality of the credit crisis is beginning to set in and it is far from over. The Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah in London has one of the most bearish views and IMO probably the most accurate.

“This credit crisis, when all is out, will see $250bn to $500bn of losses. The heat is on and it is inevitable that more players will have to revalue at least a decent portion” of assets they currently value “using ‘mark-to-make believe'”.

So far there have been about $50B in losses reported. The market has not priced in Mr. Janjuah’s assumptions. Of course there is also the global growth story that clouds how the markets will react among a myriad of other factors. In other words I have no idea where the market is heading IMHO but this credit crisis thing ain’t over.

[LA_Renter]

“It was exactly a month ago yesterday that we hit the all time high of 14,164, now we’re 1000pts down.”

That high of 14,164 occurred after the summer credit crunch sent the Dow to about 12,500 in mid August. Some reasons we saw the rally to over 14k is that the Fed began easing starting with a 50 bps cut and the street made the assumption that the Financials threw the kitchen sink into third quarter earnings thus the worst of the credit crunch had passed (and we all lived happily ever after). The true reality of the credit crisis is beginning to set in and it is far from over. The Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah in London has one of the most bearish views and IMO probably the most accurate.

“This credit crisis, when all is out, will see $250bn to $500bn of losses. The heat is on and it is inevitable that more players will have to revalue at least a decent portion” of assets they currently value “using ‘mark-to-make believe'”.

So far there have been about $50B in losses reported. The market has not priced in Mr. Janjuah’s assumptions. Of course there is also the global growth story that clouds how the markets will react among a myriad of other factors. In other words I have no idea where the market is heading IMHO but this credit crisis thing ain’t over.

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