Does anyone follow Mission/Fashion Valley condo sales?

[citydweller]

I have a friend back east that is planning to relocate back to San Diego in the next year or two. She wants to buy a condo that is walking distance to Fashion Valley. She has considered buying a condo now and renting it out until she moves here.

I’ve been telling her that prices are unlikely to be going up in the next 2 years, and that she would be better off waiting and not having to deal with being a long distance landlord.

Today though I was looking on SDLookup and noticed that inventory in 92108 has gone from 150 in August down to 102 as of today. So now I’m worried that I may have steered her wrong.

Is anyone familiar with this market? I’m wondering if this is normal seasonal fluctuation in inventory. Some of the prices look like they would at least break even as rentals, so I’m wondering if anyone feels it would be wise for her to buy now?

[SD Realtor]

Mission Valley is for the most part considered rental property and like many other rental stocked areas has long since bottomed out. With few outlets available for decent returns that are fairly low risk there has been a lot of investor activity the past few years in stock like mission valley condos. Expect them the continue to appreciate modestly this year.

[sdduuuude]

Typically, this is a lower inventory month than August. The Q is – what was inventory this month last year. That is more of an indicatory.

Also, look at months of inventory (i.e. inventory / monthly sales) for a better idea of market direction.

[citydweller]

Thanks for the responses. I’ve been getting my info from SDLookup, and their inventory history only goes back 6 months. I assume as spring gets closer there will be more inventory coming onto the market. Using SDLookup, it looks like there were 28 sales in this zip code in December, so the current inventory would be 3.6 months. I realize December and January are probably not good indicator months of market direction.

SDR, when you say modest increases do you think that if she waits another year to buy there won’t be too much of a difference in prices?

I still think she’ll be better off waiting to buy as owner occupied and not as a rental. What do you think?

[SD Realtor]

I think it depends on alot of things. I cannot say how much the prices will have increased by the time she is ready to buy, only that I think they will be higher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 5-7% increase. Another parameter will be what are interest rates when she wants to buy?

As for the rental property aspect of it, that is more of a quandry. If she is looking for cash flow then I am not a big fan of rental property purchases in San Diego. If she is looking for appreciation then yeah I guess it is okay. The only rentals I have left are ones that I bought as owner occupied and lived in and then grew out of but kept. So yes your point may have some merit. However it is hard to say what the landscape will be a year from now.

I think this will be a very interesting year.

[jameswenn]

There’s the Civita development in MV, it’s not that far from Fashion Valley, like half a mile.

I took a look at the first phase in the development about 2 weeks ago, 200 units of townhomes, real pricey and real nice, about 500k plus approx 500 a month which covers 2 HOAs.

I asked the saleswoman and she said there weren’t moving fast, so if she has the cash, she has time.

[markmax33]

[quote=SD Realtor]Mission Valley is for the most part considered rental property and like many other rental stocked areas has long since bottomed out. With few outlets available for decent returns that are fairly low risk there has been a lot of investor activity the past few years in stock like mission valley condos. Expect them the continue to appreciate modestly this year.[/quote]

I don’t know how you can make this prediction with so many condos being held by the banks. It seems irresponsible to me. Show me how many bank owned Condos there are still that haven’t been foreclosed and then make this prediction.

[jameswenn]

[quote=markmax33][quote=SD Realtor]Mission Valley is for the most part considered rental property and like many other rental stocked areas has long since bottomed out. With few outlets available for decent returns that are fairly low risk there has been a lot of investor activity the past few years in stock like mission valley condos. Expect them the continue to appreciate modestly this year.[/quote]

I don’t know how you can make this prediction with so many condos being held by the banks. It seems irresponsible to me. Show me how many bank owned Condos there are still that haven’t been foreclosed and then make this prediction.[/quote]

At the end of the day, he’s a “realtor”.

[outtamojo]

[quote=jameswenn][quote=markmax33][quote=SD Realtor]Mission Valley is for the most part considered rental property and like many other rental stocked areas has long since bottomed out. With few outlets available for decent returns that are fairly low risk there has been a lot of investor activity the past few years in stock like mission valley condos. Expect them the continue to appreciate modestly this year.[/quote]

I don’t know how you can make this prediction with so many condos being held by the banks. It seems irresponsible to me. Show me how many bank owned Condos there are still that haven’t been foreclosed and then make this prediction.[/quote]

At the end of the day, he’s a “realtor”.[/quote]

Have you two even read any of SD Realtor’s other posts??

[markmax33]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=jameswenn][quote=markmax33][quote=SD Realtor]Mission Valley is for the most part considered rental property and like many other rental stocked areas has long since bottomed out. With few outlets available for decent returns that are fairly low risk there has been a lot of investor activity the past few years in stock like mission valley condos. Expect them the continue to appreciate modestly this year.[/quote]

I don’t know how you can make this prediction with so many condos being held by the banks. It seems irresponsible to me. Show me how many bank owned Condos there are still that haven’t been foreclosed and then make this prediction.[/quote]

At the end of the day, he’s a “realtor”.[/quote]

Have you two even read any of SD Realtor’s other posts??[/quote]

I’m just reading this thread but it is well known that there 25%+ of the homes in the country are underwater, and SD is probably worse. People have been living in homes for years and haven’t been kicked out yet all over the place. To consider Mission Valley a “bottomed out market” for any reason in a state with a very unhealthy housing market is ridiculous to me. If the condos could some how pencil out for the rent then I guess you might consider it but I highly doubt there is anything Mission Valley you wouldn’t be taking a huge loss on if you had to move sometime in the next 5 years. I saw his posts about the GOV intervening in the market more this year, but like all GOV intervention it just prolongs the bubble and makes it worse. Even if it went up 3% this because of GOV tinkering with loans it will go back down 10% in the following years as a result. Yes it sounds like Realtor speak to me.

[jameswenn]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=jameswenn][quote=markmax33][quote=SD Realtor]Mission Valley is for the most part considered rental property and like many other rental stocked areas has long since bottomed out. With few outlets available for decent returns that are fairly low risk there has been a lot of investor activity the past few years in stock like mission valley condos. Expect them the continue to appreciate modestly this year.[/quote]

I don’t know how you can make this prediction with so many condos being held by the banks. It seems irresponsible to me. Show me how many bank owned Condos there are still that haven’t been foreclosed and then make this prediction.[/quote]

At the end of the day, he’s a “realtor”.[/quote]

Have you two even read any of SD Realtor’s other posts??[/quote]

Of course, he’s been posting here forever. It’s one his of his avenues for marketing.

[markmax33]

[quote=SD Realtor]I think it depends on alot of things. I cannot say how much the prices will have increased by the time she is ready to buy, only that I think they will be higher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 5-7% increase. Another parameter will be what are interest rates when she wants to buy?

As for the rental property aspect of it, that is more of a quandry. If she is looking for cash flow then I am not a big fan of rental property purchases in San Diego. If she is looking for appreciation then yeah I guess it is okay. The only rentals I have left are ones that I bought as owner occupied and lived in and then grew out of but kept. So yes your point may have some merit. However it is hard to say what the landscape will be a year from now.

I think this will be a very interesting year.[/quote]

I don’t understand this false logic. If interest rates increase and I have been saving money, I am fist pumping to the sky! The increase in interest rates will collapse the market even further. I would much rather pay a higher interest rate with a bigger down payment with the opportunity to refi in 5-10 years. The best time to buy is when everyone is saying don’t buy and they are exiting the market. We haven’t seen that yet. I have patiently saved 150k and counting in the last 5 years and I am very happy to wait! Those $600k homes will be $400k soon enough.

[SD Realtor]

Actually if you read my posts back from when I started which was long before any of you ever joined this board, I was one of the most bearish people here.

Similarly, I regularly receive requests for evaluations of property, for opinions, for thoughts and none of this is solicited and these are not for clients of mine. Also when everyone was gleefully predicting the tsunami and how we would all get great affordable deals I was one of the few who warned about how this would not be the case due to interventions by the govt.

Again, try to read my comments carefully. I have not told anyone to buy. What I have been saying is to look for a continuation of what is a concerted effort to revive the market via good old fashion manipulation. This manipulation will be in the form of pushing further risk onto the taxpayer backed GSEs. Furthermore the timing of this effort is particularly ironic given it is an election year.

Yes a homeowner underwater with a 600k loan and a turd 450k home will soon be able to refi it for the full 600k. That loan will be backed by fannie mae. This is nothing short of fraud. An asset that is not worth 600k will be moved to a GSE and that 600k is insured by your tax dollars in an indirect manner. This also will remove this home from a potential buyers pool as a short sale or reo. This is market manipulation. This will happen on a larger scale. This is not a free market.

This will however goose the market. You can hide your head all you want. You can deny you missed a local bottom, it doesn’t matter to me… If you follow investment property closely you will see it has been moving over the past few years. Similarly where is the tsunami of homes? Markmax where are they at? Have you seen them?

How about you jameswenn? Do you really think the original poster would be idiotic enough to spend 500k on a condo in mission valley? This is not rental stock. Try to understand what rental stock really is ok? Have you been tracking the sales of true rental stock and watching as the prices have been going up?

If you don’t want to use valuable advice to your advantage that is fine. Why don’t we wait a year and look back on what I have said. How does that sound. If you haven’t been reading recommendations that the Fed has been giving regarding the GSEs, and what a hell of alot of other news has been with regards to changing the current model in order to stimulate things, then that is fine, keep your head buried and keep waiting for that mirage of a tsunami. Meanwhile myself and others will continue to purchase rentals and take advantage of the opportunities.

[scaredyclassic]

Fist pumping to the sky?

Friends who had been very bullish in real estate were telling me not to buy at the end of 2010.

I think there was some, maybe not maximum, but some real fear in the real estate market at points over the last few years.

I only bought after conceding To myself that the GOV mainpulation was potentially limitless and that resistance was futile.

[akbarpunjabi]

I live and work in MV I watch the market just to laugh over the years at all the banks and flippers and short sales. My prediction is MV is down another 10% by this time next year.

Redin this one for a good laugh.
2258 Gill Village Way #1014
The realtor owner is an expert!

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