Do you feel the economy getting better?

[scaredyclassic]

Im not sure what “better” means.

I think the word on the street has been that the revolution will not be televised.

Now I guess the revolution is subject to Nielsen ratings?

[CDMA ENG]

[quote=walterwhite]im feeling pretty bullish. i just bought 300 pounds of weights.

Shipped from china.

you’d think we’d be competitive with weights made in usa.

the shippings gotta cost something.

Bills are strong but bears are Also pretty strong. Maybe weights are bearish and bullish.

i also want to spend some money cause im getting back 5% on my debit card.

now i need a power cage.

and a new car. it dumped a lot of power steerng fluid on my nice driveway.[/quote]

You don’t need power steering if you are power lifting… Wuss! 😛

Also my friend from Denver has a comment about SoCal and ppl driving BMWs/Nice Cars. One. A nice car cost less than a nice house. Two since ppl who commute in SoCal spend more time in the car than they do the house why not buy a nice car. Some truth in that…

But for my two cents I think any uptick is just another tech bubble. I read Mish. I read the economist. Neither have anything rosy to report. Europe is imploding… Orders for durable goods are down… So what is the bright side? Maybe the dollar will get stronger against other currencies but that is the only rallying point.

The only other upside is unemployment is down and that is just a number game anyway!

So there is a lot of people reporting this and ppl reporting that which is some good news on the local level but it is still anetodetal…

As SDDuuuude says “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.”

CE

My Vote is no. Economy is not getting better. Its just getting sunny outside so you all are not as depressing as normal for the last 4 months! :p

[sdduuuude]

Speaking of Mish …

He always looks at things from a different perspective from the rest of the world.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/petroleum-3-month-rolling-average-turns.html

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=CDMA ENG]You don’t need power steering if you are power lifting… Wuss! 😛

Also my friend from Denver has a comment about SoCal and ppl driving BMWs/Nice Cars. One. A nice car cost less than a nice house. Two since ppl who commute in SoCal spend more time in the car than they do the house why not buy a nice car. Some truth in that…

But for my two cents I think any uptick is just another tech bubble. I read Mish. I read the economist. Neither have anything rosy to report. Europe is imploding… Orders for durable goods are down… So what is the bright side? Maybe the dollar will get stronger against other currencies but that is the only rallying point.

The only other upside is unemployment is down and that is just a number game anyway!

So there is a lot of people reporting this and ppl reporting that which is some good news on the local level but it is still anetodetal…

As SDDuuuude says “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.”

CE

My Vote is no. Economy is not getting better. Its just getting sunny outside so you all are not as depressing as normal for the last 4 months! :p[/quote]

OK. I am bringing some data. Chrysler, now part of Italy’s Fiat, just reported its best January sales since 2008, up 44% from a year earlier. And it announced it would hire 1,800 people at a plant in Belvidere, Illinois, to build its new Dodge Dart. And the good news is hardly confined to Chrysler. The auto industry as a whole sold 1.2m vehicles in January, many more than expected, and a 4% increase from December.

Where is your data?

[CDMA ENG]

[quote=carlsbadworker][quote=CDMA ENG]You don’t need power steering if you are power lifting… Wuss! 😛

Also my friend from Denver has a comment about SoCal and ppl driving BMWs/Nice Cars. One. A nice car cost less than a nice house. Two since ppl who commute in SoCal spend more time in the car than they do the house why not buy a nice car. Some truth in that…

But for my two cents I think any uptick is just another tech bubble. I read Mish. I read the economist. Neither have anything rosy to report. Europe is imploding… Orders for durable goods are down… So what is the bright side? Maybe the dollar will get stronger against other currencies but that is the only rallying point.

The only other upside is unemployment is down and that is just a number game anyway!

So there is a lot of people reporting this and ppl reporting that which is some good news on the local level but it is still anetodetal…

As SDDuuuude says “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.”

CE

My Vote is no. Economy is not getting better. Its just getting sunny outside so you all are not as depressing as normal for the last 4 months! :p[/quote]

OK. I am bringing some data. Chrysler, now part of Italy’s Fiat, just reported its best January sales since 2008, up 44% from a year earlier. And it announced it would hire 1,800 people at a plant in Belvidere, Illinois, to build its new Dodge Dart. And the good news is hardly confined to Chrysler. The auto industry as a whole sold 1.2m vehicles in January, many more than expected, and a 4% increase from December.

Where is your data?[/quote]

Well I had written a big drawn out statement and then left this tab only to find that the whole thing some how got erased.

You cherry pick one data point… Woopie! You should join the Obama political team (or whoever is trying to get re-elected to be non partisan).

I am lazy when it comes to writting so I will simply counter with this.

Uemployment numbers remain at record levels when cherry picking accounting standards are discounted.

Our decifeit remains at record levels with no plan for reduction or repayment.

Our Fed still use poor policies to keep banks afloat and to keep my “premium” savings account under 0.5 percent rate of return becasue they are desperate to pump money in the economy…

Real levels of wage has not increased since 96’…

Yeah the economy is getting better… In the same way a poor man doubles his riches by going from 1 dollar in his pocket to two.

You could argue that the above is still “getting better” but this is of such small significance that it hardly be called so.

I am not complaining… I am hunkered down and prepared to deal with whatever comes but I think it is premature to say things are getting better.

That is not much in the way “data” with exacting points that are accurate to 3 decimal points but those are some of the facts…

In light of that…

At least the surfing should be good tomorrow…

CE

[sdrealtor]

Can we at least say things arent getting worse?

[davelj]

I just got back from a small bank conference and just about every banker was saying the same thing (for the first time in several years): non-performing loans are dropping significantly; borrowers look much stronger this year as compared to last year; they’re more optimistic; they’re hiring and drawing down credit lines for the first time in several years, etc. So, for the first time in quite some time most of the bankers were cautiously optimistic.

I’d say there’s little doubt that the economy’s improving, albeit at a very modest clip. The question is whether or not it’s sustainable. The problem, of course, is all of that debt out there.

Everyone – except perhaps the corporate sector – has too much debt; that is, mainly consumers and Uncle Sam. But… debt SERVICE is actually about in the middle of historical range… because of historically low interest rates. Which is why the economy is growing (very modestly) despite the mountain of debt.

Note the debt service ratios (they’re a complete non-event… for now):

Consumers:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/

The Federal Government:
http://www.intellectualtakeout.org/library/chart-graph/us-debt-interest-rate-payments?library_node=69078

So, the logical person queries, “Well, what happens when and if interest rates increase?” The simple answer is that debt service will increase (despite the fact that a pretty large chunk of the total debt is at low fixed rates with long maturities), which will crimp spending, and the economy will slow and possibly go into recession… and rates will come down again (eventually). So, there is a see-saw effect between debt, the servicing thereof, and economic growth. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work as smoothly in reality as it does in theory. We could have stagflation for a few years or a number of other unpleasantries while the see-saw seeks a new equilibrium.

The point, however, is that over the LONG term… we’re likely to muddle along at half (or less) the growth rate of the recent past as the debt gets paid down, or is just stabilized while the economy (slowly) catches up to it. I’d bet on 1%-1.5% real GDP growth over the next 15-20 years (versus 3%+ over the last 60 years). That’s not the end of the world, but it’s going to be unpleasant for a lot of folks for an extended period of time. I suspect we’re going to see a continuation of some recent trends like a declining birth rate and people “simplifying” their lives (fewer mcmansions, smaller cars, less bauble-buying). The money, after all, just ain’t there. (It never was “really” there, of course, but now more people realize it.)

But I could be wrong…

[CDMA ENG]

[quote=sdrealtor]Can we at least say things arent getting worse?[/quote]

Well I am not sure that they aren’t…

I think europe will have some unforseen consequences. Like I said… The dollar may be come stronger and we could potential see some growth from that…

But as long as slave labor rules the production world I am not sure that we will have any growth…

China is cheap… But Vietnam is cheaper…

I bet that even Chinas slows as production moves away from them…

I just think the rest of my career this country will be in a slump without another bubble…

But… Maybe a year from now I will make your economy grow a little and buy a house…

Speaking of which I still owe you for wine!

Lets me you and Duuuude get some lunch together.

CE

[scaredyclassic]

Personally I think I just entered a mini-depression today. Everything seems pointless.

[sdrealtor]

Lunch sounds great.

[paramount]

[quote=walterwhite]Personally I think I just entered a mini-depression today. Everything seems pointless.[/quote]

Consider buying a BMW, that should cheer you up.

We need more BMW’s and less pickup trucks around Temecula.

If I never see another lifted pickup truck again I’ll be forever happy.

[scaredyclassic]

Maybe. I don’t know. Everything feels sad.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=paramount][quote=walterwhite]Personally I think I just entered a mini-depression today. Everything seems pointless.[/quote]

Consider buying a BMW, that should cheer you up.

[/quote]

Good Advice, it certainly has changed the adjective I formerly used for driving. I’ve replaced “have to” with “get to”. For instance I no longer “have to” drive to the store, now I “get to” drive to it. It applies to other makes of cars too, the point is to find something that makes you happy.

5yes, thank you very much and I’m happy for you. I love harveston, I’ll mention it to him and I’ll send you a private message if he’s interested.

I like what davelj said, I think there is merit to that observation. The world won’t end, it will just be different and the consumer mentality of this country may have been permanenetly affected, which isn’t such a bad thing when you put it into perspective.

[scaredyclassic]

I don’t think a car or even a bicycle or more muscle will help. I get very sad every few months. I have to wait. Eventually the cloud will lift.

[CA renter]

More weights, scaredy. And hugs from your family. And red wine…from a box. That’ll make you feel better.

Seriously, I hope you’re not really sad. 🙁

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