Deceiving Data for North County Sales

[powayseller]

The latest data from the NAR seems to indicate that the housing market is robust, but if you look deeper, you find that speculators are fleeing the market.

From the North County Times:
“Detached home prices up 14 percent from year ago

By: BRADLEY J. FIKES – Staff Writer

NORTH COUNTY —- Defying warnings that a real estate bubble is about to deflate, the median price of existing single-family homes in North County rose significantly in November”….

Actually, the bubble is deflating. Later in the article, a realtor is speculating about the reasons for the higher median home price: investors, who buy lower-priced properties to flip, have fled the market.

The numbers show 30% more listings, and 20% fewer sales (compared y-o-y). Put that together, and you have a much smaller percentage of available homes sold: 50% of listings sold this year, vs. almost 100% last year.

If we look around at signs and talk to friends, we find out that houses are on the market much longer, with multiple reductions.

Does anyone have data on the sales price/original list price, or the # of reductions on sales price?

[powayseller]

I told my realtor about the 14% increase in prices, and she said, “Where??”. I told her in North County, and she was amazed. She said when you look at the MLS, it’s full of price reductions, and that every house has them. She owns a house plus a rental property, so she does not believe in a long-term decline as I do. She told me my house was unusual in getting 3 showings per week, because of its uniqueness (acreage). Their other listings get 1 showing per week.

[hs]

According to the 4 houses i was interested in buying at scripps ranch area,(I haven’t bought any of them so far.)They all dropped off their prices.
1.10725 wexford st. first listing price was:$529k–549k in Oct. changed to 499k in Nov.(sold)
2.10922 Ivy hill Dr. first listing price was 519k–549k in August
changed to 509k–539k in Nov. Still on the market
3.10918 Ivy Hill 569k–599k in August
changed to 549.9k–569.9k in Dec.Still on the market
4.11053 Caminito Dulce first listing price was 549k–579k in Sept.
changed to 539k–549k in Dec. Still on the market
Is this seasonal?
I am debating if I should buy now.
Any suggestion?

[powayseller]

I suggest you wait a few years, until prices drop by 50%. If you can afford to lose equity, wait less time, but in the spring we will see a significant drop as inventory rises, ARM holders cannot afford higher rates and must sell, lending standards tighten later in the year as foreclosures rise. Be patient, it will be worth the wait. We are in escrow now – we are selling a home we just finished building in September 2005. I am selling my dream home because it is so obvious that this market will correct, and we are at the peak. I am waiting to buy a foreclosure in about 4 or 5 years, but it may be sooner than that. Keep reading this website and the links, and you’ll stay updated on the market. My realtor just sold his $729K listing in Walden (near Carmel Mtn); the buyers offered only $649K and the sellers took it because they needed to sell. His comment to me was the other homeowners in Walden would be mad at him for bringing down everyone’s values. The price reductions are really getting going now. Many people are waiting for January to either list or RElist, and the flood of inventory will further depress prices, and there will be a snowball effect. Patience is your friend.

[hs]

Thank you for your kind suggestion. I definitely will keep your words in mind and try to be patient. Best wishes to you!

[Author]

Posts