Deadly New Mexican Flu Virus Sparks Global Pandemic Fear

[nostradamus]

Interesting flu. Thanks for the on-the-ground report!

Pig flu, equine virus, SARS bird flu, mad cow BSE… Any pattern emerging?

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=10932|title=Spanish Flu|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1170|height=600]

Here is a chart of deaths per 1,000 people during the Spanish flu, by time (I think for the UK). Note that the maximum death rate was the Fall of 1918.

Looking at past pandemics suggests that influenza follows a wave pattern. The first wave shows low lethality and that is followed a few months later by a much more lethal strain of the same virus.

Influenza has great capacity to adapt to its host and this need for an adaptation period is what gives rise to a change in lethality.

The evidence form the 1918 pandemic is that those exposed in the first wave built resistance and were not affected by the second more lethal wave. So getting infected during this first wave my not be the worst thing in the world.

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=10932|title=Spanish Flu|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1170|height=600]

Here is a chart of deaths per 1,000 people during the Spanish flu, by time (I think for the UK). Note that the maximum death rate was the Fall of 1918.

Looking at past pandemics suggests that influenza follows a wave pattern. The first wave shows low lethality and that is followed a few months later by a much more lethal strain of the same virus.

Influenza has great capacity to adapt to its host and this need for an adaptation period is what gives rise to a change in lethality.

The evidence form the 1918 pandemic is that those exposed in the first wave built resistance and were not affected by the second more lethal wave. So getting infected during this first wave my not be the worst thing in the world.

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=10932|title=Spanish Flu|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1170|height=600]

Here is a chart of deaths per 1,000 people during the Spanish flu, by time (I think for the UK). Note that the maximum death rate was the Fall of 1918.

Looking at past pandemics suggests that influenza follows a wave pattern. The first wave shows low lethality and that is followed a few months later by a much more lethal strain of the same virus.

Influenza has great capacity to adapt to its host and this need for an adaptation period is what gives rise to a change in lethality.

The evidence form the 1918 pandemic is that those exposed in the first wave built resistance and were not affected by the second more lethal wave. So getting infected during this first wave my not be the worst thing in the world.

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=10932|title=Spanish Flu|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1170|height=600]

Here is a chart of deaths per 1,000 people during the Spanish flu, by time (I think for the UK). Note that the maximum death rate was the Fall of 1918.

Looking at past pandemics suggests that influenza follows a wave pattern. The first wave shows low lethality and that is followed a few months later by a much more lethal strain of the same virus.

Influenza has great capacity to adapt to its host and this need for an adaptation period is what gives rise to a change in lethality.

The evidence form the 1918 pandemic is that those exposed in the first wave built resistance and were not affected by the second more lethal wave. So getting infected during this first wave my not be the worst thing in the world.

[Arraya]

[img_assist|nid=10932|title=Spanish Flu|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=1170|height=600]

Here is a chart of deaths per 1,000 people during the Spanish flu, by time (I think for the UK). Note that the maximum death rate was the Fall of 1918.

Looking at past pandemics suggests that influenza follows a wave pattern. The first wave shows low lethality and that is followed a few months later by a much more lethal strain of the same virus.

Influenza has great capacity to adapt to its host and this need for an adaptation period is what gives rise to a change in lethality.

The evidence form the 1918 pandemic is that those exposed in the first wave built resistance and were not affected by the second more lethal wave. So getting infected during this first wave my not be the worst thing in the world.

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]Interesting flu. Thanks for the on-the-ground report!

Pig flu, equine virus, SARS bird flu, mad cow BSE… Any pattern emerging?[/quote]

Mother nature striking back? Where was that thread about population control?

….I was going to say, well just be a vegetarian…Then you’ll get sick from all that genetically modified veggie/pesticides….

….Then I’d recommend go organic…Except, you’ll probably get sick from salmonella like the time with the spinach.

….You could grow your own food, but we have a water shortage…You could use gray water, but that would cause possibly a bacteria concern…

What to do what to do…

Regarding the other comments about corporations. Well, apparently it’s working. Notice that the stock of those alcohol based hand sanitizers went down in your local drug stores?

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]Interesting flu. Thanks for the on-the-ground report!

Pig flu, equine virus, SARS bird flu, mad cow BSE… Any pattern emerging?[/quote]

Mother nature striking back? Where was that thread about population control?

….I was going to say, well just be a vegetarian…Then you’ll get sick from all that genetically modified veggie/pesticides….

….Then I’d recommend go organic…Except, you’ll probably get sick from salmonella like the time with the spinach.

….You could grow your own food, but we have a water shortage…You could use gray water, but that would cause possibly a bacteria concern…

What to do what to do…

Regarding the other comments about corporations. Well, apparently it’s working. Notice that the stock of those alcohol based hand sanitizers went down in your local drug stores?

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]Interesting flu. Thanks for the on-the-ground report!

Pig flu, equine virus, SARS bird flu, mad cow BSE… Any pattern emerging?[/quote]

Mother nature striking back? Where was that thread about population control?

….I was going to say, well just be a vegetarian…Then you’ll get sick from all that genetically modified veggie/pesticides….

….Then I’d recommend go organic…Except, you’ll probably get sick from salmonella like the time with the spinach.

….You could grow your own food, but we have a water shortage…You could use gray water, but that would cause possibly a bacteria concern…

What to do what to do…

Regarding the other comments about corporations. Well, apparently it’s working. Notice that the stock of those alcohol based hand sanitizers went down in your local drug stores?

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]Interesting flu. Thanks for the on-the-ground report!

Pig flu, equine virus, SARS bird flu, mad cow BSE… Any pattern emerging?[/quote]

Mother nature striking back? Where was that thread about population control?

….I was going to say, well just be a vegetarian…Then you’ll get sick from all that genetically modified veggie/pesticides….

….Then I’d recommend go organic…Except, you’ll probably get sick from salmonella like the time with the spinach.

….You could grow your own food, but we have a water shortage…You could use gray water, but that would cause possibly a bacteria concern…

What to do what to do…

Regarding the other comments about corporations. Well, apparently it’s working. Notice that the stock of those alcohol based hand sanitizers went down in your local drug stores?

[Coronita]

[quote=nostradamus]Interesting flu. Thanks for the on-the-ground report!

Pig flu, equine virus, SARS bird flu, mad cow BSE… Any pattern emerging?[/quote]

Mother nature striking back? Where was that thread about population control?

….I was going to say, well just be a vegetarian…Then you’ll get sick from all that genetically modified veggie/pesticides….

….Then I’d recommend go organic…Except, you’ll probably get sick from salmonella like the time with the spinach.

….You could grow your own food, but we have a water shortage…You could use gray water, but that would cause possibly a bacteria concern…

What to do what to do…

Regarding the other comments about corporations. Well, apparently it’s working. Notice that the stock of those alcohol based hand sanitizers went down in your local drug stores?

[partypup]

[quote=nostradamus]I think you misunderstood me completely. My point was, IMO you act almost prophetic but then change your prophecies retroactively to match the facts as they arrive.

At least you didn’t come back with any ostrich head-in-the-sand analogies about how I’m not thinking because I’m not as schizophrenic as some. I would have bet on this response.

Anyhow, take care of that sweet baby! Don’t make him too nervous in life or too sheltered.[/quote]

Thanks for the good advice, Nost. I’ll certainly do my best to make sure he’s not too nervous or too sheltered 🙂

As for prophecies, I just want to clarify something: my commentary to my original post was pretty brief. But it seemed to spark debate about whether this outbreak will, in fact, exacerbate the economic downturn. I think we can all agree that it’s still too soon to know whether my comment was “prophetic” or not (and bear in mind, I said “I hope[d] that this doesn’t turn out to be something that threatens an already dying U.S. economy” – no prediction whatsoever was made). But the responses I got seemed to pretty much assume that it was premature to even raise the issue, and that the chances of economic fallout were about as likely as the sun exploding.

I actually don’t recall making any prophecies in that post. I remember using the words “would”, “may” and “hope” – hardly words of prophecy. My intent – and clearly some on this board did not welcome it – was simply to advise people to take extra precautions unless they didn’t mind getting sick with a new flu strain. It just seemed like common sense to me at the time, since so little was known about this very new virus when I made my original post. Are there any facts that have surfaced that contradict what I wrote in my original post? Has the incidence of infections in the U.S. dropped dramatically? Are we back down to Alert Level 2? What prophecies did I change retroactively in my second post? To my knowledge, the only thing I addressed in my second post was the media frenzy being created – which, incidentally, was NOT occurring when I first made my post, and in fact, I didn’t even address the media response in that post.

I’m not trying to be flippant. But I do take your comments seriously, and I just want to be cognizant of anything I’m writing that might be misleading anyone.

I consider boards, and this one in particular, to be an especially helpful and effective way of sharing information before it becomes common knowledge. But I do worry that the desire to share information among us may be chilled if everything we share is held to some prophetic standard: “I thought you said x was going to happen, and it didn’t, so who cares what you have to say?” I think it’s more productive, especially in circumstances like these, to pull together and share as much information, analysis and thoughts as possible, and focus less on finger-pointing. This scenario – as is the case with most scenarios – is fluid and constantly evolving. I will admit right now that I don’t know WHAT the hell is going to happen with this virus, okay? I’m not Nostradamus – you are 😉 But I still have every right to share my opinion and voice my concerns, as you and all others on this board do. And as more information comes to light, we all reserve the right for further comment. I’ve never said that this virus is going to kill every living person, and I made no prediction as to the number of infected we would eventually see. I am merely intaking information, processing it and offering my thoughts. Do you see my point? I’m offering an olive branch of understanding here 🙂

Also, as to the post that you responded to, I once again ask for your response to the open question presented, which was actually the point of the post: will you be taking a swine vaccine, if offered? Will you have any reservations in doing so?

[quote=nostradamus]You’d make an excellent lawyer-cum-politician.[/quote]

LOL. Speaking as someone who swims in the darkest waters with the former, I can honestly say that the only thing more dangerous than a lawyer is a lawyer who makes a career in politics. I knew this country was seriously screwed when it became apparent that the only three (3) viable Democratic presidential candidates were all lawyers – cum politicians.

[partypup]

[quote=nostradamus]I think you misunderstood me completely. My point was, IMO you act almost prophetic but then change your prophecies retroactively to match the facts as they arrive.

At least you didn’t come back with any ostrich head-in-the-sand analogies about how I’m not thinking because I’m not as schizophrenic as some. I would have bet on this response.

Anyhow, take care of that sweet baby! Don’t make him too nervous in life or too sheltered.[/quote]

Thanks for the good advice, Nost. I’ll certainly do my best to make sure he’s not too nervous or too sheltered 🙂

As for prophecies, I just want to clarify something: my commentary to my original post was pretty brief. But it seemed to spark debate about whether this outbreak will, in fact, exacerbate the economic downturn. I think we can all agree that it’s still too soon to know whether my comment was “prophetic” or not (and bear in mind, I said “I hope[d] that this doesn’t turn out to be something that threatens an already dying U.S. economy” – no prediction whatsoever was made). But the responses I got seemed to pretty much assume that it was premature to even raise the issue, and that the chances of economic fallout were about as likely as the sun exploding.

I actually don’t recall making any prophecies in that post. I remember using the words “would”, “may” and “hope” – hardly words of prophecy. My intent – and clearly some on this board did not welcome it – was simply to advise people to take extra precautions unless they didn’t mind getting sick with a new flu strain. It just seemed like common sense to me at the time, since so little was known about this very new virus when I made my original post. Are there any facts that have surfaced that contradict what I wrote in my original post? Has the incidence of infections in the U.S. dropped dramatically? Are we back down to Alert Level 2? What prophecies did I change retroactively in my second post? To my knowledge, the only thing I addressed in my second post was the media frenzy being created – which, incidentally, was NOT occurring when I first made my post, and in fact, I didn’t even address the media response in that post.

I’m not trying to be flippant. But I do take your comments seriously, and I just want to be cognizant of anything I’m writing that might be misleading anyone.

I consider boards, and this one in particular, to be an especially helpful and effective way of sharing information before it becomes common knowledge. But I do worry that the desire to share information among us may be chilled if everything we share is held to some prophetic standard: “I thought you said x was going to happen, and it didn’t, so who cares what you have to say?” I think it’s more productive, especially in circumstances like these, to pull together and share as much information, analysis and thoughts as possible, and focus less on finger-pointing. This scenario – as is the case with most scenarios – is fluid and constantly evolving. I will admit right now that I don’t know WHAT the hell is going to happen with this virus, okay? I’m not Nostradamus – you are 😉 But I still have every right to share my opinion and voice my concerns, as you and all others on this board do. And as more information comes to light, we all reserve the right for further comment. I’ve never said that this virus is going to kill every living person, and I made no prediction as to the number of infected we would eventually see. I am merely intaking information, processing it and offering my thoughts. Do you see my point? I’m offering an olive branch of understanding here 🙂

Also, as to the post that you responded to, I once again ask for your response to the open question presented, which was actually the point of the post: will you be taking a swine vaccine, if offered? Will you have any reservations in doing so?

[quote=nostradamus]You’d make an excellent lawyer-cum-politician.[/quote]

LOL. Speaking as someone who swims in the darkest waters with the former, I can honestly say that the only thing more dangerous than a lawyer is a lawyer who makes a career in politics. I knew this country was seriously screwed when it became apparent that the only three (3) viable Democratic presidential candidates were all lawyers – cum politicians.

[partypup]

[quote=nostradamus]I think you misunderstood me completely. My point was, IMO you act almost prophetic but then change your prophecies retroactively to match the facts as they arrive.

At least you didn’t come back with any ostrich head-in-the-sand analogies about how I’m not thinking because I’m not as schizophrenic as some. I would have bet on this response.

Anyhow, take care of that sweet baby! Don’t make him too nervous in life or too sheltered.[/quote]

Thanks for the good advice, Nost. I’ll certainly do my best to make sure he’s not too nervous or too sheltered 🙂

As for prophecies, I just want to clarify something: my commentary to my original post was pretty brief. But it seemed to spark debate about whether this outbreak will, in fact, exacerbate the economic downturn. I think we can all agree that it’s still too soon to know whether my comment was “prophetic” or not (and bear in mind, I said “I hope[d] that this doesn’t turn out to be something that threatens an already dying U.S. economy” – no prediction whatsoever was made). But the responses I got seemed to pretty much assume that it was premature to even raise the issue, and that the chances of economic fallout were about as likely as the sun exploding.

I actually don’t recall making any prophecies in that post. I remember using the words “would”, “may” and “hope” – hardly words of prophecy. My intent – and clearly some on this board did not welcome it – was simply to advise people to take extra precautions unless they didn’t mind getting sick with a new flu strain. It just seemed like common sense to me at the time, since so little was known about this very new virus when I made my original post. Are there any facts that have surfaced that contradict what I wrote in my original post? Has the incidence of infections in the U.S. dropped dramatically? Are we back down to Alert Level 2? What prophecies did I change retroactively in my second post? To my knowledge, the only thing I addressed in my second post was the media frenzy being created – which, incidentally, was NOT occurring when I first made my post, and in fact, I didn’t even address the media response in that post.

I’m not trying to be flippant. But I do take your comments seriously, and I just want to be cognizant of anything I’m writing that might be misleading anyone.

I consider boards, and this one in particular, to be an especially helpful and effective way of sharing information before it becomes common knowledge. But I do worry that the desire to share information among us may be chilled if everything we share is held to some prophetic standard: “I thought you said x was going to happen, and it didn’t, so who cares what you have to say?” I think it’s more productive, especially in circumstances like these, to pull together and share as much information, analysis and thoughts as possible, and focus less on finger-pointing. This scenario – as is the case with most scenarios – is fluid and constantly evolving. I will admit right now that I don’t know WHAT the hell is going to happen with this virus, okay? I’m not Nostradamus – you are 😉 But I still have every right to share my opinion and voice my concerns, as you and all others on this board do. And as more information comes to light, we all reserve the right for further comment. I’ve never said that this virus is going to kill every living person, and I made no prediction as to the number of infected we would eventually see. I am merely intaking information, processing it and offering my thoughts. Do you see my point? I’m offering an olive branch of understanding here 🙂

Also, as to the post that you responded to, I once again ask for your response to the open question presented, which was actually the point of the post: will you be taking a swine vaccine, if offered? Will you have any reservations in doing so?

[quote=nostradamus]You’d make an excellent lawyer-cum-politician.[/quote]

LOL. Speaking as someone who swims in the darkest waters with the former, I can honestly say that the only thing more dangerous than a lawyer is a lawyer who makes a career in politics. I knew this country was seriously screwed when it became apparent that the only three (3) viable Democratic presidential candidates were all lawyers – cum politicians.

[partypup]

[quote=nostradamus]I think you misunderstood me completely. My point was, IMO you act almost prophetic but then change your prophecies retroactively to match the facts as they arrive.

At least you didn’t come back with any ostrich head-in-the-sand analogies about how I’m not thinking because I’m not as schizophrenic as some. I would have bet on this response.

Anyhow, take care of that sweet baby! Don’t make him too nervous in life or too sheltered.[/quote]

Thanks for the good advice, Nost. I’ll certainly do my best to make sure he’s not too nervous or too sheltered 🙂

As for prophecies, I just want to clarify something: my commentary to my original post was pretty brief. But it seemed to spark debate about whether this outbreak will, in fact, exacerbate the economic downturn. I think we can all agree that it’s still too soon to know whether my comment was “prophetic” or not (and bear in mind, I said “I hope[d] that this doesn’t turn out to be something that threatens an already dying U.S. economy” – no prediction whatsoever was made). But the responses I got seemed to pretty much assume that it was premature to even raise the issue, and that the chances of economic fallout were about as likely as the sun exploding.

I actually don’t recall making any prophecies in that post. I remember using the words “would”, “may” and “hope” – hardly words of prophecy. My intent – and clearly some on this board did not welcome it – was simply to advise people to take extra precautions unless they didn’t mind getting sick with a new flu strain. It just seemed like common sense to me at the time, since so little was known about this very new virus when I made my original post. Are there any facts that have surfaced that contradict what I wrote in my original post? Has the incidence of infections in the U.S. dropped dramatically? Are we back down to Alert Level 2? What prophecies did I change retroactively in my second post? To my knowledge, the only thing I addressed in my second post was the media frenzy being created – which, incidentally, was NOT occurring when I first made my post, and in fact, I didn’t even address the media response in that post.

I’m not trying to be flippant. But I do take your comments seriously, and I just want to be cognizant of anything I’m writing that might be misleading anyone.

I consider boards, and this one in particular, to be an especially helpful and effective way of sharing information before it becomes common knowledge. But I do worry that the desire to share information among us may be chilled if everything we share is held to some prophetic standard: “I thought you said x was going to happen, and it didn’t, so who cares what you have to say?” I think it’s more productive, especially in circumstances like these, to pull together and share as much information, analysis and thoughts as possible, and focus less on finger-pointing. This scenario – as is the case with most scenarios – is fluid and constantly evolving. I will admit right now that I don’t know WHAT the hell is going to happen with this virus, okay? I’m not Nostradamus – you are 😉 But I still have every right to share my opinion and voice my concerns, as you and all others on this board do. And as more information comes to light, we all reserve the right for further comment. I’ve never said that this virus is going to kill every living person, and I made no prediction as to the number of infected we would eventually see. I am merely intaking information, processing it and offering my thoughts. Do you see my point? I’m offering an olive branch of understanding here 🙂

Also, as to the post that you responded to, I once again ask for your response to the open question presented, which was actually the point of the post: will you be taking a swine vaccine, if offered? Will you have any reservations in doing so?

[quote=nostradamus]You’d make an excellent lawyer-cum-politician.[/quote]

LOL. Speaking as someone who swims in the darkest waters with the former, I can honestly say that the only thing more dangerous than a lawyer is a lawyer who makes a career in politics. I knew this country was seriously screwed when it became apparent that the only three (3) viable Democratic presidential candidates were all lawyers – cum politicians.

[Author]

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