Days on market vs. price expectation

[flyer]

Interesting, flu.

Have seen indications in RSF, LJ, and other similar locations that this trend is “spilling over” into San Diego. Should be fun to see if it becomes as “mainstream” here as it has in LA.

[The-Shoveler]

Actually ALL of SoCal is becoming increasingly Asian.

By far not all of the more recent Asian Immigrants are rich (multi-millionaires), far more of them are coming here with just the shirt on their backs and a desire to better themselves.

[an]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Actually ALL of SoCal is becoming increasingly Asian.

By far not all of the more recent Asian Immigrants are rich (multi-millionaires), far more of them are coming here with just the shirt on their backs and a desire to better themselves.[/quote]
That is also true. These two things are not mutually exclusive though.

[FlyerInHi]

There is a combination of factors for higher prices in top cities.

Low rates of course. And not enough building to match population increase.

Plus, recent immigrants just have higher tolerance for higher housing prices as a percentage of income. They also have higher tolerance for smaller, older spaces.

New York is the prime example. Look at the demographics of NY in the 1950s vs. now. Lots of White people from NYC left the city and moved to NJ or even to the South.

Demographic shifts is just the way America works and renews itself.

With globalization and international banking, moving wealth around the globe is just so much easier now.

Immigrants are more likely to settle in big cities. Multi-culturalism is now in. Immigrants search for enclaves in America where they feel safe and have access the food and products they are used to. They watch TV and stay in touch with the home country thanks to the Net.

With more knowledge, thanks to the Internet, there is more desire from professionals and millennials to move to the “glamour” cities. So will see the price gaps between the top cities and the average American city get larger. Housing wise, in past decades, San Diego was maybe 1.5 to 2x more expensive than the average. But we could see 4 to 5x.

The world’s middle class is also a lot more education focused. So places close to universities will do well.

I was just in Hollywood over the weekend. Lots of new condos and apartments being built. There’s renewal with all sorts of people moving in. That’s a truly diverse place with racial as well as income diversity (mansions to riff-raff apartments).

Washington, DC is attracting millenials who are moving into the city. Prices in DC are now easily triple the suburbs whereas in the decades past, people were moving out.

Demographics is destiny.

[FlyerInHi]

There was an article in the NYT about EB-5 visas and how real estate is attracting foreign investors.

Immigration to the US is more a middle-class and lower-class phenomenon.

The term middle-class is confusing, but in this context, it’s not the average person. Middle class refers to the professional and small business owner class. The rich don’t want to get American green cards because they would have to pay US income taxes on their worldwide income.

In America, the term “middle-class” is overly broad. Middle-class in the British sense is more precise.

[The-Shoveler]

Suburbs in SoCal tend to grow into major cities over 10-20 years.

[FlyerInHi]

The Chinese love glamour buildings.
Interestingly, Las Vegas is attracting a lot of EB-5 investments.

Investing in a casino and getting green cards for the whole immediately family is not a bad deal. You can live anywhere in USA and get in-state college tuition. The $500,000 investment likely won’t lose value, so the overall return is pretty good, I would think.

http://lasvegassun.com/news/2014/may/11/why-china-loves-vegas/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/muhammadcohen/2014/10/22/baccarat-to-eb-5-asian-money-bankrolls-las-vegas-revival/

http://www.lvgea.org/key-industries/international-business/eb-5-investment/

[joec]

I know if I owned a lot of real estate in prime areas here in California (Bay Area, LA, SD), I certainly wouldn’t be in a rush to sell. This is why when some folks here say things like a “bubble” is just waiting to pop/collapse, I think that’s very unlikely and it’s more wishful/hopeful thinking since they may have missed out or now have more cash to buy more.

In the short term, Rich has ran the numbers so there isn’t a bubble compared to rents and inventory…

Of course, this doesn’t cover a lot of areas some folks may be looking at (like NJ), but as an asian myself, I don’t think I could ever live in some parts of the country, let alone outside of CA. There’s the food/dining problem, groceries, and certainly discrimination when you live where you are the minority. Just don’t see a lot of the asian FOBs will ever buy in say, East or South county in SD.

Unlike the Japanese from the 80s where they imploded, the Chinese and Indians actually have a desire to leave their country I think so as their kids grow up, they’d want to 1) shelter their assets from their home country and 2) attend college here.

At least my parents have a lot of places so maybe it’ll work out for me in 30 years also.

[njtosd]

[quote=andymajumder]

I am from India and trust me there are lots of really wealthy folks in India. I would say 0.1% of Indians are really wealthy, with net worth at least 10M+, that would be around 1.2M people. [/quote]

I’m not so sure about this, unless things have changed quickly. Last summer there were 14,800 multimillionaires in India (defined as having assets over $10 million U.S.) according to this article: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-08-06/news/52514243_1_millionaires-india-home-russia-and-india

That would result in a rate of multimillionaires in India of .0012% You are off by a factor of 100.

[spdrun]

There’s the food/dining problem, groceries, and certainly discrimination when you live where you are the minority.

There’s no shortage of heavily-Asian areas in and around NJ/NYC.

[flyer]

Agree the “glamour lifestyle” is definitely in vogue among the newly minted “wealthy” in major cities in the US. I would have to say especially among those who have relocated here from other countries. We see a lot of it, especially in LA, and as it relates to the film industry.

In negotiating deals, my wife has found that many major investors in film today are bringing foreign funds to the table. It’s been a great new resource for Hollywood studios and production companies, with a seemingly endless flow of money coming from abroad. She says they are like a bunch of kids who just learned a new candy store opened on their block.

The “glamour lifestyle” is something most born in the US have had access to for most of our lives, but for those who just got to the party, it seems a desirable and accessible way to achieve “perceived status,” (ala Kardashianism) which, imo, along with increased employment opportunities, is another reason why these population centers are booming.

It’s really fascinating to watch this financial and social phenomenon unfold.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=flyer]
The “glamour lifestyle” is something most born in the US have had access to for most of our lives, but for those who just got to the party, it seems a desirable and accessible way to achieve “perceived status,” (ala Kardashianism) which, imo, along with increased employment opportunities, is another reason why these population centers are booming.
[/quote]

I see a renaissance in LA.

Funny you should mention Kardashianism. That lifestyle is being brought to the masses by Rick Caruso with his lifestyle centers.

Also Sam Nazarian (uncle a founder of QUALCOMM and dad and early investors) is having great success in LA with his bars, restaurants, and hotels.

[spdrun]

The problem is that such a renaissance tends to turn cities into theme parks, destroying a lot that’s good and interesting about them. Of course, you’re a fan of Vegas, so maybe you dig that noise.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]The problem is that such a renaissance tends to turn cities into theme parks, destroying a lot that’s good and interesting about them. Of course, you’re a fan of Vegas, so maybe you dig that noise.[/quote]

I’m not a fan of theme parks… but neither am I fan of poverty.

Don’t you think that rich NYC today is better than gritty, grungy NYC of the 1970s/1980s? Same goes for SF.

There is a give and take, and a better economy is always preferable.

[flyer]

FIH, yes, there is a tremendous amount of change going on in LA. I think it’s mostly positive, but, as sp mentioned, it is also a bit of a circus.

Imo, the lifestyle you mentioned which is being brought to the masses is, at it’s core, predicated on “status by association,” and people are buying into this fantasy hook, line and sinker.

These marketing masterminds are employing very interesting techniques which lead people to believe they are “insiders” via living in certain locations, frequenting certain bars, restaurants, hotels, etc., even though there is no basis in reality. Again, I find it fascinating.

[Author]

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