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FlyerInHi.
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May 18, 2015 at 5:47 PM #786425May 19, 2015 at 5:01 AM #786432
flyer
Participant[quote=flu][quote=rockingtime]If they want to contain cost, they’d need to reduce their headcount in SD and increase # in low cost places like India/China
They can still keep their chip biz running with few k less engineers in sd.A simple engineer in SD is no less/more than an engineer in China/India although a lot of folks here may argue against it[/quote]
The said focused group that are buying in said area I mentioned aren’t aren’t necessarily the local enginerd worker bees salary workerbees. In fact, if we haven’t already been priced out, a lot of us are going to get priced out really soon if this trend continues…
The bulk these 1:3 make up the 0.1% wealthy overseas, or if they are enginerd types, they are kids of parents overseas with sufficient cash reserves. To put the that in perspective… 0.1% of 1 billion people is still 1 million people…And when the economy does turn south overseas, those folks are going to have a pretty big target on their back…So I’m wondering if this trend is a flight to safety for them.
That’s why I’m considering the worst case scenario wrto what may happen to RE prices in certain areas/demographics, similar to what sort of happened in Vancouver, pockets in NorCal, and pockets in L.A. Up until recently, San Diego was under the radar so to speak. I’m not so sure now. I will say one thing though. I doubt these people will be looking in the low end. Maybe, North County is their definition of low end. Prices won’t go up forever. Where it stops though, that’s to be determined. And I’m not so sure it has anything to do with what us worker bees make here. It will be interesting to see what happens when interest rates go up. Though, I have some suspicion it won’t do that much in this group.[/quote]
Should be interesting to see if this plays out–making San Diego more and more unaffordable for more and more people.
May 19, 2015 at 6:19 AM #786435The-Shoveler
ParticipantThey will just do what they have done for the last 50-100 or so years.
Sprawl further north and east until that becomes the new Jobs center(s), then repeat.
May 19, 2015 at 8:28 AM #786438spdrun
ParticipantDidn’t they say that about the Japanese and others in the 1980s? It never played out the way it was expected.
Ha. Ha. Ha. Dollar just got more expensive again today. Should make buying more expensive for the epicanthic crowd 😉
May 19, 2015 at 9:07 AM #786439
CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]Didn’t they say that about the Japanese and others in the 1980s? It never played out the way it was expected.
Ha. Ha. Ha. Dollar just got more expensive again today. Should make buying more expensive for the epicanthic crowd ;)[/quote]
Sure chief. If you say so.
Japan didn’t have 1 billion people. And a close second would be another billion or so from india. 0.1% of 1 billion is still a lot of wealthy people. Don’t worry though. They won’t be fishing for rentals in the markets you are looking at, especially Jersey.
May 19, 2015 at 9:21 AM #786440ParticipantJapan had a higher percentage of comparatively well-off people than China or India does today. Japan was a much wealthier country on average by the 80s than China or India are today.
(Actually, parts of NJ are heavily Indian — around Edison. But fortunately, that hasn’t helped prices recover very well so far.)
May 19, 2015 at 9:25 AM #786441CoronitaParticipant[quote=spdrun]Japan had a higher percentage of comparatively well-off people than China or India does today. Japan was a much wealthier country on average by the 80s than China or India are today.
(Actually, parts of NJ are heavily Indian — around Edison. But fortunately, that hasn’t helped prices recover very well so far.)[/quote]
If you say so…
May 19, 2015 at 10:59 AM #786444an
Participant[quote=spdrun]Japan had a higher percentage of comparatively well-off people than China or India does today. Japan was a much wealthier country on average by the 80s than China or India are today.
(Actually, parts of NJ are heavily Indian — around Edison. But fortunately, that hasn’t helped prices recover very well so far.)[/quote]
We don’t care about average. We care about total number of rich people. Japanese total population is 127M today. 30-40 years ago, their population is much smaller. So, combining China and India, you have almost 3B people. If you’re counting just 0.1%, that’s 30M people. So there are more people in the top 0.5% of China & India than all of Japan. Also, you’re more likely to see 0.1% of the population in China & India leaving for greener pasture than 25% of Japanese leaving Japan. My bet is, 0.1% of Chinese and Indian are A LOT richer than the top 25% of Japanese.May 19, 2015 at 11:07 AM #786445ParticipantThat’s 3 million people, not 30, only twice as big as the top 1% of Japanese society in the 80s.
May 19, 2015 at 11:12 AM #786446ParticipantAnd extend that to top 1% of China/India and you have 30M people.
Top 0.1% of Chinese/Indian is 2X the top 1% Japanese, but what about the actual total wealth. Not to mention the political climate differences.
May 19, 2015 at 11:45 AM #786447ParticipantIn the 80’s there was a small rise created by emigrating Japanese (I know of several families who became instant millionaires selling their Tokyo properties and moving to L.A. Area).
But I think the Chinese emigration influence still has a long ways to go yet in this cycle IMO.
(plus they were actually building enough homes back in the late 80’s, not the story today).We are building a little more than 250K homes in the west which is a little more than 1/2 what they should be building.
May 19, 2015 at 6:18 PM #786459joec
ParticipantThe Japanese are very different in terms of Chinese or Indians coming to live in America. Outside of Japan, the largest Japanese population is actually in Brazil.
If you look around Asian communities, there are actually very few Japanese people in general compared to the other Asian ethnic races. There is just not a huge desire to “leave” Japan compared to people living in China or India.
There are a fair amount of Japanese in LA, but those tend to be from Hawaii I think so they are already Americanized.
With such a large and upcoming middle class growing in China, and a strong desire to send their kids to the US for college (India too), etc…which in turn allows the kids to get jobs here and and eventually have their parents move over, this will put upward pressure on various communities that these people desire to live in. I think in this type of low interest rate environment, real estate in prime areas seems like a better long term hold just due to the demographics of people buying/moving in certain areas.
Prices sound very silly to us here in SD, but compared to places in metro areas in China, Hong Kong, Europe, and the bay area, it’s still pretty affordable for what you get.
May 19, 2015 at 10:27 PM #786462andymajumder
Participant[quote=AN][quote=spdrun]Japan had a higher percentage of comparatively well-off people than China or India does today. Japan was a much wealthier country on average by the 80s than China or India are today.
(Actually, parts of NJ are heavily Indian — around Edison. But fortunately, that hasn’t helped prices recover very well so far.)[/quote]
We don’t care about average. We care about total number of rich people. Japanese total population is 127M today. 30-40 years ago, their population is much smaller. So, combining China and India, you have almost 3B people. If you’re counting just 0.1%, that’s 30M people. So there are more people in the top 0.5% of China & India than all of Japan. Also, you’re more likely to see 0.1% of the population in China & India leaving for greener pasture than 25% of Japanese leaving Japan. My bet is, 0.1% of Chinese and Indian are A LOT richer than the top 25% of Japanese.[/quote]I am from India and trust me there are lots of really wealthy folks in India. I would say 0.1% of Indians are really wealthy, with net worth at least 10M+, that would be around 1.2M people. After that there would be another 5-7% (60-84M) of the population, urban upper middle class which probably is worth somewhere between 400K – 2M & a lot of their wealth is tied to owning real estate in places in Bombay, Delhi, Bangalore etc. Also these upper middle class folks are willing to spend on their kids education and even help them with their home purchases etc. I have members of extended family in India who downgraded to a smaller house in Mumbai so that they could send their son to a top grad school in US. All in all India would probably have close 80M people who are quite wealthy of which 3-4M would be very wealthy even by global standards. Yes, that’s a small % of India’s overall population but that’s still a lot of wealthy people.
May 20, 2015 at 4:06 AM #786464CoronitaParticipanthttp://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-chinese-homebuyers-20140324-story.html
[quote]
Chinese buyers bought 12% of all U.S. homes purchased by foreign citizens last year, up from 5% in 2007, according to the National Assn. of Realtors. More than half their home purchases were in California. And more than two-thirds of them paid cash, the trade group said.The trend appears unlikely to unwind soon. More than 60% of China’s wealthy have left or plan to leave the country, at least part time, and their No. 1 destination is the United States, according to the Hurun Report, a Shanghai publishing firm focused on recently minted millionaires and billionaires.
[/quote]And here’s what I meant about Arcadia.. It’s not just above peak, it’s well above peak… And that was last year
[quote]
But it’s getting more expensive quickly. Heavy demand pushed the median home sales price past $1.32 million last quarter in Arcadia’s 91007 ZIP Code — 30.5% above its peak in 2007, during the housing bubble, according to researcher DataQuick.Next door in the 91006 ZIP Code, prices are up 23.7%. Other areas with prices exceeding their peaks include Walnut, Temple City, San Marino and parts of San Gabriel and East San Gabriel, all hubs for Chinese investment.
Others want the prestige of a San Marino or Pasadena mansion, even if paying for it means working in China and rarely visiting. One of Ng’s neighbors bought a Pasadena estate, then lived there for just two days out of the two years that followed.
“He was not renting it out,” Ng said. “People have so much money, they just say, ‘What the heck. It’s a nice neighborhood. I might as well just buy one.'”
It’s a story echoed by Patti Hahn of Arcadia, gesturing to the house next door, which sold for $2.45 million last year, up from $1.55 million in 2006, the last time it changed hands.
“No one lives there,” Hahn said.
The buyers pay for twice-weekly maintenance work, she said. They live overseas but plan to start splitting time between the U.S. and China this year, said Johnny Lam, the buyers’ agent.
[/quote]
May 20, 2015 at 4:09 AM #786463CoronitaParticipant[quote=andymajumder][quote=AN][quote=spdrun]Japan had a higher percentage of comparatively well-off people than China or India does today. Japan was a much wealthier country on average by the 80s than China or India are today.
(Actually, parts of NJ are heavily Indian — around Edison. But fortunately, that hasn’t helped prices recover very well so far.)[/quote]
We don’t care about average. We care about total number of rich people. Japanese total population is 127M today. 30-40 years ago, their population is much smaller. So, combining China and India, you have almost 3B people. If you’re counting just 0.1%, that’s 30M people. So there are more people in the top 0.5% of China & India than all of Japan. Also, you’re more likely to see 0.1% of the population in China & India leaving for greener pasture than 25% of Japanese leaving Japan. My bet is, 0.1% of Chinese and Indian are A LOT richer than the top 25% of Japanese.[/quote]I am from India and trust me there are lots of really wealthy folks in India. I would say 0.1% of Indians are really wealthy, with net worth at least 10M+, that would be around 1.2M people. After that there would be another 5-7% (60-84M) of the population, urban upper middle class which probably is worth somewhere between 400K – 2M & a lot of their wealth is tied to owning real estate in places in Bombay, Delhi, Bangalore etc. Also these upper middle class folks are willing to spend on their kids education and even help them with their home purchases etc. I have members of extended family in India who downgraded to a smaller house in Mumbai so that they could send their son to a top grad school in US. All in all India would probably have close 80M people who are quite wealthy of which 3-4M would be very wealthy even by global standards. Yes, that’s a small % of India’s overall population but that’s still a lot of wealthy people.[/quote]
I think the point is, basically regardless of the nationality or country of origin people are from, these wealthy and/or highly educated families all want the same thing.
As screwed up as people here think the U.S. might be, people still want to come here, because things are much more screwed up elsewhere.
The folks from asia/india we see here are the top 1%ers+ from their respective backgrounds. They have the means to come here, either (1) because of their education status or (2) their wealth status or (3) both. And being in that category, they will end up wanting the same thing, more or less. And considering how large and how many people there are there, even a top 0.1% of that population is huge.
2013-2014 foreign purchase stats
Transaction volume leaders: Canadian
Total transaction amount leader: Chinese -
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