could it be …

[mercedes7]

[quote=SD Realtor]We may be reaching an inflection point. This is a very speculative statement and certainly not encompassing for the county but some indicators are starting to go off.

Starting with trustee sales for which we attend alot of them. The bidding is completely out of control. We have been playing our cards tightly and get outbid on most everything we see. So there are alot of flippers now owning homes at what I deem, to be very very slim margins.

The 90 day seasoning rule is sometimes off and sometimes on depending on the day of the week. For FHA it was off as of February but MOST all lenders put an overlay in place and that screws flippers trying to get FHA buyers.

Seller psychology has completely flip flopped. With the press telling us how the housing market has turned around and our govt espousing the economy has turned the corner, sellers are now pricing with fairly unrealistic expectations. Indeed someone posted a few weeks back about inventory growth and I am seeing it. The telltale signs of active/pending ratios that we saw in 06 are indeed starting to grow FOR CERTAIN AREAS. Mainly though I am seeing very unrealistic pricing and those homes will not sell and no way do I see them appraising.

So don’t all do cartwheels yet. In many many many submarkets the craziness does indeed persist. It is a tough call at the moment. The derivative is definitely decreasing so we need to sit and wait. I think we will have a more definitive picture come July/Augus.

Still this is worth noting. Of course for high end stuff nothing has changed. However for mid range and starter stuff I think pricing is starting to hurt buyers as rich pointed out in his latest post.[/quote]

Thanks for this info. SD Realtor. I actually posted about the inventory because I began seeing a real change, albeit I don’t have access to the ratio of pendings vs actives. It is nice to hear that someone else is noticing a change. Check out the bond market – 10 year yield nearly at 4% now. If this sell off continues in the bond market, likely to have an effect on housing. Keep the “inside” info coming.

[CA renter]

Yes, SDR, I believe you are absolutely right.

I’ve posted lately about my observation that 2009 was very much like 2004, right before the inventory began to explode. There has been so much speculative activity (IMHO, about 30-40% of the activity in 2009 was speculative, including MLS and non-MLS transactions), and this never leads to good things.

One of the other posters and I were discussing what feels like a possible slowdown in the past couple of months — very subtle, so far. A bit like the calm before the storm. Everybody seems to think *something* is about to happen, but nobody really knows what that something will be.

Personally, we are still sitting tight and staying in cash. I would NOT be flipping right now, BTW.

[CA renter]

Yes, SDR, I believe you are absolutely right.

I’ve posted lately about my observation that 2009 was very much like 2004, right before the inventory began to explode. There has been so much speculative activity (IMHO, about 30-40% of the activity in 2009 was speculative, including MLS and non-MLS transactions), and this never leads to good things.

One of the other posters and I were discussing what feels like a possible slowdown in the past couple of months — very subtle, so far. A bit like the calm before the storm. Everybody seems to think *something* is about to happen, but nobody really knows what that something will be.

Personally, we are still sitting tight and staying in cash. I would NOT be flipping right now, BTW.

[CA renter]

Yes, SDR, I believe you are absolutely right.

I’ve posted lately about my observation that 2009 was very much like 2004, right before the inventory began to explode. There has been so much speculative activity (IMHO, about 30-40% of the activity in 2009 was speculative, including MLS and non-MLS transactions), and this never leads to good things.

One of the other posters and I were discussing what feels like a possible slowdown in the past couple of months — very subtle, so far. A bit like the calm before the storm. Everybody seems to think *something* is about to happen, but nobody really knows what that something will be.

Personally, we are still sitting tight and staying in cash. I would NOT be flipping right now, BTW.

[CA renter]

Yes, SDR, I believe you are absolutely right.

I’ve posted lately about my observation that 2009 was very much like 2004, right before the inventory began to explode. There has been so much speculative activity (IMHO, about 30-40% of the activity in 2009 was speculative, including MLS and non-MLS transactions), and this never leads to good things.

One of the other posters and I were discussing what feels like a possible slowdown in the past couple of months — very subtle, so far. A bit like the calm before the storm. Everybody seems to think *something* is about to happen, but nobody really knows what that something will be.

Personally, we are still sitting tight and staying in cash. I would NOT be flipping right now, BTW.

[CA renter]

Yes, SDR, I believe you are absolutely right.

I’ve posted lately about my observation that 2009 was very much like 2004, right before the inventory began to explode. There has been so much speculative activity (IMHO, about 30-40% of the activity in 2009 was speculative, including MLS and non-MLS transactions), and this never leads to good things.

One of the other posters and I were discussing what feels like a possible slowdown in the past couple of months — very subtle, so far. A bit like the calm before the storm. Everybody seems to think *something* is about to happen, but nobody really knows what that something will be.

Personally, we are still sitting tight and staying in cash. I would NOT be flipping right now, BTW.

[mercedes7]

Agreed. There is still too much speculation out there for this to be a true bottom. When the last flipper is burned so bad that they vow to never flip again…when the masses finally acknowledge that 2004-2006 was an “aberration” and not “the new normal”…that is when THE bottom will finally arrive. When this happens is anyone’s guess, but I would venture to say it will probably be closer to 2011-2012.

[mercedes7]

Agreed. There is still too much speculation out there for this to be a true bottom. When the last flipper is burned so bad that they vow to never flip again…when the masses finally acknowledge that 2004-2006 was an “aberration” and not “the new normal”…that is when THE bottom will finally arrive. When this happens is anyone’s guess, but I would venture to say it will probably be closer to 2011-2012.

[mercedes7]

Agreed. There is still too much speculation out there for this to be a true bottom. When the last flipper is burned so bad that they vow to never flip again…when the masses finally acknowledge that 2004-2006 was an “aberration” and not “the new normal”…that is when THE bottom will finally arrive. When this happens is anyone’s guess, but I would venture to say it will probably be closer to 2011-2012.

[mercedes7]

Agreed. There is still too much speculation out there for this to be a true bottom. When the last flipper is burned so bad that they vow to never flip again…when the masses finally acknowledge that 2004-2006 was an “aberration” and not “the new normal”…that is when THE bottom will finally arrive. When this happens is anyone’s guess, but I would venture to say it will probably be closer to 2011-2012.

[mercedes7]

Agreed. There is still too much speculation out there for this to be a true bottom. When the last flipper is burned so bad that they vow to never flip again…when the masses finally acknowledge that 2004-2006 was an “aberration” and not “the new normal”…that is when THE bottom will finally arrive. When this happens is anyone’s guess, but I would venture to say it will probably be closer to 2011-2012.

[sdrealtor]

The flippers doing the vast majority of the transactions have made so much money they cant possibly be burned so bad they wil never flip again. These groups have done hundreds of transactions and made tens of millions in profits. When and if the tide turns they can easily afford to take the loss on their last round and retire very comfortably until they see the chance to play again.

[sdrealtor]

The flippers doing the vast majority of the transactions have made so much money they cant possibly be burned so bad they wil never flip again. These groups have done hundreds of transactions and made tens of millions in profits. When and if the tide turns they can easily afford to take the loss on their last round and retire very comfortably until they see the chance to play again.

[sdrealtor]

The flippers doing the vast majority of the transactions have made so much money they cant possibly be burned so bad they wil never flip again. These groups have done hundreds of transactions and made tens of millions in profits. When and if the tide turns they can easily afford to take the loss on their last round and retire very comfortably until they see the chance to play again.

[sdrealtor]

The flippers doing the vast majority of the transactions have made so much money they cant possibly be burned so bad they wil never flip again. These groups have done hundreds of transactions and made tens of millions in profits. When and if the tide turns they can easily afford to take the loss on their last round and retire very comfortably until they see the chance to play again.

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