Correction?

[Arraya]

[quote=davelj][quote=Arraya]It’s all driven by emotional/irrational behavior which by human nature herds. This next down trend, if it indeed has started, should go throughout 2010 and overcorrect to the downside.[/quote]

“Should” being the operative word. Lots of things that “should” happen in financial markets don’t.

As Grantham has pointed out, the only certainty in all of finance is mean reversion – eventually. The degree to which assets should or shouldn’t over-correct is pure speculation.[/quote]

No doubt, mean reversion is the only certainty. How fast it gets there and how far it overcorrects is another story. Should just indicates the most probabilistic outcome. Mean is another constantly moving target and to make things more complicated, fundamentals are on the subjective side.

The correction phase, however, *will* happen eventually.

he.. It *should* have started in the fall according to me.

IMO, the correction phase is inevitable and people will look for news to justify it, when in reality has little to nothing to do with it except maybe of the turning point but not the actual correction.

Economic fundamentals have been deteriorating and a stock correction will exacerbate the deterioration.

[investor]

I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.

[investor]

I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.

[investor]

I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.

[investor]

I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.

[investor]

I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.

[Eugene]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]I don’t know anymore, I am starting to warm up to the Idea of a double dip recession nowadays.
[/quote]

It’s too early for the second dip, it’s not supposed to come till Q3 or so.

[quote]I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. [/quote]

Valuations should reflect future earnings, not current earnings. It’s only OK to demand 14/1 if you don’t think that the economy is going to recover any time soon.

[quote]Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.[/quote]

Make that one pound and I’ll agree with you.

[Eugene]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]I don’t know anymore, I am starting to warm up to the Idea of a double dip recession nowadays.
[/quote]

It’s too early for the second dip, it’s not supposed to come till Q3 or so.

[quote]I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. [/quote]

Valuations should reflect future earnings, not current earnings. It’s only OK to demand 14/1 if you don’t think that the economy is going to recover any time soon.

[quote]Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.[/quote]

Make that one pound and I’ll agree with you.

[Eugene]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]I don’t know anymore, I am starting to warm up to the Idea of a double dip recession nowadays.
[/quote]

It’s too early for the second dip, it’s not supposed to come till Q3 or so.

[quote]I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. [/quote]

Valuations should reflect future earnings, not current earnings. It’s only OK to demand 14/1 if you don’t think that the economy is going to recover any time soon.

[quote]Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.[/quote]

Make that one pound and I’ll agree with you.

[Eugene]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]I don’t know anymore, I am starting to warm up to the Idea of a double dip recession nowadays.
[/quote]

It’s too early for the second dip, it’s not supposed to come till Q3 or so.

[quote]I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. [/quote]

Valuations should reflect future earnings, not current earnings. It’s only OK to demand 14/1 if you don’t think that the economy is going to recover any time soon.

[quote]Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.[/quote]

Make that one pound and I’ll agree with you.

[Eugene]

[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]I don’t know anymore, I am starting to warm up to the Idea of a double dip recession nowadays.
[/quote]

It’s too early for the second dip, it’s not supposed to come till Q3 or so.

[quote]I think that current P/E is around 28/1. And this is in a poor business environment. Should be around 10-14/1 at best. [/quote]

Valuations should reflect future earnings, not current earnings. It’s only OK to demand 14/1 if you don’t think that the economy is going to recover any time soon.

[quote]Look to one ounce of gold to buy the dow.[/quote]

Make that one pound and I’ll agree with you.

[Coronita]

Lol…

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

$70 oil here we come…

[Coronita]

Lol…

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

$70 oil here we come…

[Coronita]

Lol…

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

$70 oil here we come…

[Coronita]

Lol…

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

$70 oil here we come…

[Author]

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