Coronavirus Endgame

[sdduuuude]

[quote=phaster]people experiencing homelessness[/quote]

Is this the new politically correct term for “bum” now ? “Homeless person” was just too harsh and mercilessly implies that maybe their own decisions got them in that state ?

[teaboy]

I guess this is obvious to most of us in this thread, but it still boggles my mind how most people I talk to are in blissful denial of the next 12 months of our lives.

“Lockdowns can’t end until Covid-19 vaccine found, study says”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/lockdowns-cant-end-until-covid-19-vaccine-found-study-says

Quote: “Although control policies such as physical distancing and behavioural change are likely to be maintained for some time, proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available,”

tb

[teaboy]

Up-to-the-minute numbers of deaths per country are readily available, but does any have a source with breakdowns by age or other factors?

Tb

[teaboy]

.

[svelte]

[quote=teaboy]Up-to-the-minute numbers of deaths per country are readily available, but does any have a source with breakdowns by age or other factors?

Tb[/quote]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

[spdrun]

teaboy: sane countries and states won’t want to keep the reproductive number below 1. They’ll want to protect the old and ill while keeping the number AT 1.0. Controlled burn = herd immunity sooner.

NYC may already be close to herd immunity, and if so, thank G-d for that.

[phaster]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=phaster]people experiencing homelessness[/quote]

Is this the new politically correct term for “bum” now ? “Homeless person” was just too harsh and mercilessly implies that maybe their own decisions got them in that state ?[/quote]

“people experiencing homelessness,…” actually is a direct quote from US News and World Report (which is as I understanding things a purveyor of left wing fake news and stats)

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/us-news-world-report/

[modest proposal sarcasm ON]

huh,… never thought of it till now but seems I missed that “bum” (i.e. a homeless dude) is indeed a very accurate adjective to describe the male subset of no talent ass clowns

http://www.nypost.com/2020/03/25/influencer-reportedly-hospitalized-with-coronavirus-after-licking-toilet/

and come to think of it,… TANB’s (i.e. Tit Ass No Brain) commonly referred to as sluts,… can also become homeless when they pass their best use date (mid-twenties???)

http://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/woman-licked-toilet-coronavirus-challenge-dr-phil

perhaps the compassionate AND ecologically responsible thing to do (i.e. offer no medical intervention in some cases???),… is let the virus do its natural thing

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/harvey-weinstein-positive-coronavirus

covid-19 making the world a better place by thinning the herd of “dead weight”

[modest proposal sarcasm OFF]

A Modest Proposal
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yeBWvYBqQc

prophetic??? (NYC 2022)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_jGOKYHxaQ

[teaboy]

[quote=svelte][quote=teaboy]Up-to-the-minute numbers of deaths per country are readily available, but does any have a source with breakdowns by age or other factors?

Tb[/quote]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm%5B/quote%5D

Thx, svelte. Although this is only USA data. The only other data I find is 6+ weeks old and mostly from China: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Does anyone know of a more global dataset?

WRT USA data, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm,
can someone help a dumbass like me interpret this data?
1. How do i calculate mortality rate by age group?
2. The “Percent of expected deaths” is less than 100% for most weeks. Does that mean that, even with COVID-19, the USA is experiencing fewer total deaths than previous years?

tb

[FlyerInHi]

I’d love to know the BMI of the deceased. Seems like weight is a big factor.

[teaboy]

“The coronavirus crisis could end in one of these four ways”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/08/how-will-the-coronavirus-crisis-end-lockdown-pandemic

tb

[sdduuuude]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I’d love to know the BMI of the deceased. Seems like weight is a big factor.[/quote]

How politically incorrect – body shaming people like that!

OK. I want to know, too, now.

[phaster]

been thinking about the endgame,… and doubt we’ll ever get back to what was considered the go-go normal for the USA which I consider from reagan’s 1980s election to the start of trumps 2016 election

think most everyone whether they love or hate trump,… would agree its been an odd period since the 2016 election

AND because of covid-19, think going forward there will be lots more sophisticated surveillance technology like in china

[quote]
A special undercover report from China’s secretive Xinjiang region. FRONTLINE investigates the Communist regime’s mass imprisonment of Muslims, and its use and testing of sophisticated surveillance technology against the Uyghur community.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/china-undercover/
[/quote]

and given many were not prepared emotionally, economically or actually (in terms of medical science w/ tests and a vaccine),… sadly pretty sure the waves of infections are going to have many more victims than people want to think about

for example just a few miles south of downtown SD we see,…

[quote]
‘A war zone’: Tijuana hospitals overwhelmed by coronavirus patients

Patients are being treated in receiving areas and lobbies while doctors and nurses say they lack the staffing, ventilators and testing to properly care for them

…At least 14 health care professionals have tested positive for COVID-19 and two are in intensive care across the state, Baja California officials confirmed Thursday.

…President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has conceded that the system does not have the number of doctors and nurses that it needs as the epidemic begins to ramp up in Mexico.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/border-baja-california/story/2020-04-10/a-war-zone-tijuana-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients
[/quote]

then there is the sad fact about long food bank lines all over the SoCal region,…

[quote]
Thousands Line Up For Food, As More San Diegans Lose Their Paychecks Due To Coronavirus

With the rain pounding down, thousands of people lined up in their cars Friday morning at a San Diego Food Bank food distribution pop-up in Chula Vista. Food Bank officials say demand has gone up tremendously as an unprecedented number of people have lost their jobs amid the shutdowns brought on by the pandemic.

“We were feeding about 350,000 people a month before the crisis, we’re projecting we’re gonna start feeding 600,000 people this month,” said Jim Floros, the Food Bank’s CEO.

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/apr/10/thousands-line-food-more-san-diegans-lose-their-pa/
[/quote]

[quote]
Sign of the times: Mile-long line of cars outside California grocery giveaway

VAN NUYS, Calif. (Reuters) – A pop-up food pantry in Southern California on Thursday drew so many people that the line of cars waiting for free groceries stretched about a mile (1.6 km), a haunting sign of how the coronavirus pandemic has hurt the working poor.

…“I have six kids and it’s difficult to eat. My husband was working in construction but now we can’t pay the rent,” said Juana Gomez, 50, of North Hollywood, as she waited for her turn.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shut down nonessential businesses across the United States, with more than 90% of Americans under some kind of stay-at-home order, depriving millions of a paycheck.

The northeast part of Los Angeles, home to many working poor Latino families, has been especially hard hit.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-food/sign-of-the-times-mile-long-line-of-cars-outside-california-grocery-giveaway-idUSKCN21R3N3
[/quote]

then looking at the “medical” trends

Hypertension and Diabetes Prevalence Among U.S. Hispanics by Country of Origin: The National Health Interview Survey 2000-2005
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2896588/

[quote]
How Mexico got so fat and is now more obese than America

Almost 33 percent of Mexicans are now obese and 70 percent overweight

The poor and young are worst affected, often both malnourished and fat

Mexican food is traditionally high in calories, fatty and fried

U.S. restaurant chains opening up in the country aren’t helping the problem

Growth in waistlines is due to increases in income and urban lifestyles

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2358472/How-Mexico-got-fat-obese-America.html
[/quote]

so looking at the trends, sadly pretty certain Hispanics are more likely to fall victim to the covid-19 virus than other ethnic groups,…

comedic prophecy???

day without a mexican (trailer)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfid48rlQoc

[FlyerInHi]

I believe you have it right, Phaster.

Btw, obesity and associated diseases are more related to intergenerational social economics. White people from low social economic backgrounds suffer as well. It depends on what they grew up eating, their food habits and access to health care.

[quote=phaster]been thinking about the endgame,… and doubt we’ll ever get back to what was considered the go-go normal for the USA which I consider from reagan’s 1980s election to the start of trumps 2016 election[/quote]
That’s what I feel as well.
For some reason, people think back nostalgically to the 1950s, or 60s. But the peak of American power was the late Clinton years during the dot com boom, before 9/11. The Berlin Wall had fallen and the American model was a called the end of history.

[sdduuuude]

OK, Piggs, help me understand this one.

[quote=http://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/apr/12/coronavirus-san-diego-live-updates-covid-19/]

KPBS

Officials said Saturday that the number of cases in San Diego had not yet “peaked” in the county”
[/quote]

But, here we see the graph of new cases in San Diego.
https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Bar%20Graph%20of%20New%20and%20Total%20Cases.pdf

Down to 43 as of Saturday, and the 3-day average of about 52.

That is less than the 54 new cases 20 days prior.
In the last 20 days, the only time we had fewer new cases than 46 was 31 – 14 days prior to Saturday.

Seems like from here on out we should be getting more recoveries than new cases.

How can we not have peaked ?
Is recovery time > 3 weeks ?
Anyone ? Anyone?

[spdrun]

“Recovery” can mean two negative tests a week or two apart, so the legal definition of “recovery” can in fact take weeks.

[Author]

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