Coronavirus Endgame

[teaboy]

it’s kinda frustrating seeing the same bullsh*t case numbers reported ad nauseum.
I just found this interesting article in the NYT looking at total deaths from all causes in 2020, which seems a much better indicator than the COVID-19 specific figures constantly referred to elsewhere.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

Would love to know if these total death numbers are available real-time anywhere, like these here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

tb

[FlyerInHi]

This is what Larry Brilliant says about a vaccine.
That’s a long time to wait for a functional world economy.

Plus in USA, lots of folk won’t be able to afford the vaccine and will refuse the “Bill Gates” vaccine.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO Lock-downs in SD will likely be over before June.

[utcsox]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO Lock-downs in SD will likely be over before June.[/quote]

do you think Comic-Con will resume?

[The-Shoveler]

hmmm maybe not Comic-Con but you never know.

I would not be too surprised to see this just disappear as fast as it came and never return or just become a common cold/flu.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=The-Shoveler]hmmm maybe not Comic-Con but you never know.

I would not be too surprised to see this just disappear as fast as it came and never return or just become a common cold/flu.[/quote]

I would not be surprised that my own desires would bias what I think the outcome will be.

Personally, I’m sick of this virus bs, so I’m pretty sure we will just go back to normal soon.

I also wouldnt be surprised to see trump have a stroke, pence embroiled in a gay sex scandal, gold hit 3,000, the meat industry collapse [wait, I think that’s happening! Yay!] and car usage go down 75 % permanently.

On the other hand I also wouldnt be too surprised if I got cv and dropped dead. And I’m definitely pro-life (mine, not strangers). Not sure if that also means I’m biased.

[The-Shoveler]

It pays to be an optimist at least most of the time anyway.

Well maybe more people will just continue to work from home so maybe car usage will go down a little.

I am fairly sure most would wish this virus never happened. Especially a lot of small biz owners that are losing everything.

And these guys
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/106…

[FlyerInHi]

This NYTimes article says a year to 18 months.
Personally I believe that the US economy is all about cash flow. When cash flow gets hit, there will be bankruptcy galore. It takes time to dig out.

I am optimistic in the long run in that life goes on. But there are winners and losers.
Just think of a dual income family in San Diego that qualified for a home based on both salaries. Maybe they felt good and invested in a rental that generates $200 positive cash flow. A job loss for 6 months and maybe a relocation may put them under. Not good.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO Lock-downs in SD will likely be over before June.[/quote]

San Diego County Clears Way for Beaches to Reopen as Soon as Monday at Cities’ Discretion

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/county-clears-way-for-beaches-to-reopen-at-cities-discretion/2312616/

[svelte]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=The-Shoveler]IMO Lock-downs in SD will likely be over before June.[/quote]

San Diego County Clears Way for Beaches to Reopen as Soon as Monday at Cities’ Discretion

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/county-clears-way-for-beaches-to-reopen-at-cities-discretion/2312616/%5B/quote%5D

Totally agree that total lockdown over by June.

The question is – what happens then?

What will the limitations be?

Will restaurants have to sit every other table?

Will that give them enough business to make a profit?

How long do we all wear face masks?

When does school reopen?

what about sporting events and concerts?

How will employers react?

When will employers bring folks back on-site?

All unclear at this point.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO it will mostly be biz as usually except large public gatherings.

Wife is a little hesitant to go out dinning, me I am just dumb enough to want to go.

[FlyerInHi]

Anthony Fauci said he’s confident we will have Covid in the fall.

I don’t know how parents will return to work if the schools are closed. Babysitters may have Covid and spread it around.

I want the economy reopened, but there will be a cost. And that cost needs to be explained to the American public. It we reopen too soon, then we might as well not have closed down to begin with.

[joec]

[quote=FlyerInHi]This NYTimes article says a year to 18 months.
Personally I believe that the US economy is all about cash flow. When cash flow gets hit, there will be bankruptcy galore. It takes time to dig out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/podcasts/the-daily/coronavirus-how-long-lockdowns.html

I am optimistic in the long run in that life goes on. But there are winners and losers.
Just think of a dual income family in San Diego that qualified for a home based on both salaries. Maybe they felt good and invested in a rental that generates $200 positive cash flow. A job loss for 6 months and maybe a relocation may put them under. Not good.[/quote]

I have a family member where they have a rental which isn’t paying rent now since tenants got laidoff/etc, but they have very high paying job, even qualified for PPP for another biz and suspended their own mortgage because they can for a year so they aren’t going under anytime soon. Also tons of 0% CC offers to hoard cash in case of further problems.

For prime areas in SD, I’m guessing if someone bought at a good time like a lot of the folks here, their mortgages are quite low due to refinancing and lots of home equity built up due to ~50% asset appreciation so if 1 person still has a job of the 2, they can probably keep their home without issue. Assuming they also have a HEL and decent credit, can stretch this for a long time.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Anthony Fauci said he’s confident we will have Covid in the fall.

I don’t know how parents will return to work if the schools are closed. Babysitters may have Covid and spread it around.

I want the economy reopened, but there will be a cost. And that cost needs to be explained to the American public. It we reopen too soon, then we might as well not have closed down to begin with.[/quote]

Netherlands is going for herd immunity like Sweden.

Maybe that will pay off big next year IMO.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]
Netherlands is going for herd immunity like Sweden.

Maybe that will pay off big next year IMO.[/quote]

I like it. The Northern Europeans are more rational than we are. They don’t try to achieve perfection in one area, instead they focus their policies on aggregate health.

Their populations are more educated and they are willing to accept the pros and cons.

In USA, we are so proud of our #1 health technologies, but for forget that only very few get it while our aggregate health sucks. We deserve what we have because what we have is self-induced and not for lack of resources.

[Author]

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