Coronavirus Endgame

[spdrun]

^^^

What about the 2009-10 H1N1 flu that was supposed to be similar to 1918? Turned out, it infected 25% of the world without us knowing it and ended up being about 20x less lethal than predicted?

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=spdrun]^^^

What about the 2009-10 H1N1 flu that was supposed to be similar to 1918? Turned out, it infected 25% of the world without us knowing it and ended up being about 20x less lethal than predicted?[/quote]

Would be cool if we go for it and nothing bad happens.

I guess possible.

Maybe it’s better to rip the bandaid off and just do the dying upfront, even if it’s really bad.

And if trump died hugging a protestor, man, its be worth it.

Personally, I am going to try not to catch it. I dont even like getting a cold.

I hate a cough. I love sleeping soundly.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=scaredyclassic]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/coronavirus-america-future.html

CV coverage is now free at nytimes.com

Experts discuss next few years.

Sounds to me like we open for business, die a lot, hunker down, open for business and just kinda repeat that until we get a vaccine.

Kinda depressing.[/quote]

Thanks for summarizing, scaredy.

Sounds like our economic sacrifices would have been in vain. Maybe shutting down delayed a few death, but many?

Maybe lettin’ it rip would have been more economical based on your previous assessment of the value of a life. If we’re gonna be capitalist, let’s go for it. Why make the whole country pay dearly for a few deaths delayed? I say “death delayed” because the sick would die sooner rather than later.

[Anonymous]

[quote=spdrun]Italy is showing a death rate of about 0.35% when antibody prevalence is considered in the population. Ours will likely be lower due to a functional medical system, lower average age, lower smoking rates, and better treatment in the future. We’ll need some measures to keep this from spreading too quickly, but if we’re lucky, we’ll end up with a death rate similar to a bad flu year. This is looking less lethal and more contagious rather than vice versa.[/quote]
Where did you find the death rate in Italy?

[svelte]

[quote=spdrun]

What about the 2009-10 H1N1 flu that was supposed to be similar to 1918? Turned out, it infected 25% of the world without us knowing it and ended up being about 20x less lethal than predicted?[/quote]

Could happen. I know they are just anecdotal, but here are the four cases I knew personally (four positive tests):

30s F – No hospitalization
60s M – No hospitalization
60s F – Hospitalized then back home
70s F – Hospitalized then back home

I’ve seen news articles where ER nurses have said that once people are hospitalized, they only leave in a body bag. Well that hasn’t been my experience so far.

[spdrun]

legallyblue: Italian gov’t appears to be claiming 23200 deaths and 10% of their population infected in the past (via antibody survey?) Total pop is 60 million, so 23200 / 6.0 million = about 0.39%.

[ocrenter]

[quote=svelte][quote=spdrun]

What about the 2009-10 H1N1 flu that was supposed to be similar to 1918? Turned out, it infected 25% of the world without us knowing it and ended up being about 20x less lethal than predicted?[/quote]

Could happen. I know they are just anecdotal, but here are the four cases I knew personally (four positive tests):

30s F – No hospitalization
60s M – No hospitalization
60s F – Hospitalized then back home
70s F – Hospitalized then back home

I’ve seen news articles where ER nurses have said that once people are hospitalized, they only leave in a body bag. Well that hasn’t been my experience so far.[/quote]

Those nurses are not wrong. And your observation is not wrong.

Please remember both your observation and the ER nurses’ observation are based on self selection.

Patients are so scared to present to the ER (especially in hotspots in NYC) that only the extremely severe cases are showing up, and those mostly end up dying. So those ER nurses are right.

Your personal anecdote is right too. But realize your cases are also self selected as well. How many of the 4 cases you know are obese and diabetic African Americans living in inner city apartments?

Remember we are all blindfolded people trying to describe an elephant by touch. The NYC ER nurses are describing a snake with two holes for a head, and you are describing a stump like a tree trunk. Both are right!

[outtamojo]

LA area antibody study
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753

I hope these antibody tests everyone rushed to develope aren’t crap.

[outtamojo]

Blood clots?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/blood-clots-coronavirus/index.html

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=outtamojo]LA area antibody study
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753

I hope these antibody tests everyone rushed to develope aren’t crap.[/quote]

So does anyone seriously believe that this thing raced around the world in a month and only infected less that 2% of the population or that china did not achieve heard immunity and that’s (heard immunity) the only reason they don’t continue to have rolling epidemic.

[outtamojo]

[quote=outtamojo]LA area antibody study
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753

I hope these antibody tests everyone rushed to develope aren’t crap.[/quote]

Apparently Stanford and USC studies both used the same fingerstick test kits imported from China.
https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=outtamojo]Blood clots?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/blood-clots-coronavirus/index.html%5B/quote%5D

Interesting. When there is herd immunity, does it mean people will suffer strokes and heart disease more frequently?

[Anonymous]

[quote=outtamojo][quote=outtamojo]LA area antibody study
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753

I hope these antibody tests everyone rushed to develope aren’t crap.[/quote]

Apparently Stanford and USC studies both used the same fingerstick test kits imported from China.
https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/%5B/quote%5D
The problem with the antibody tests is specificity, especially false positive. Even if the test has a specificity of 99.5%, meaning 1 false positive in 200 people, it will have a significant effect on the estimated percentage of infected people in an area with an infection rate of around 1% such as CA. The reliability increases greatly when the infection rate is above 10% in a population, such as in NY.

[outtamojo]

Less automobile injuries/ fatalities during shelter in place https://roadecology.ucdavis.edu/resources/stayathome-crashes

[svelte]

I wonder if the end result of all of this is that people will be less willing to take service industry jobs because they will be viewed as unstable, and more people will seek office jobs because they will be viewed as more stable.

This would push wages for restaurants, hotels, etc up and wages for office jobs down.

This may really happen if folks expect a second virus round to hit in a few months.

[Author]

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