Considering pulling the trigger

[mercedes7]

[quote=SD Realtor]The choice is a tough one. I think the doomsday people are getting antsy because not only have none of the prophecies come to fruition, but the conditions are actually improving. This is more the result of market manipulation then anything else but the numbers bear this out. As Rich posted in the resale data rodeo there are ALOT of factors in play here. For wannabe buyers the wariness should be with regards to interest rates. Will the bond market fall apart? Yes but not for quite awhile. Will the govt/fed/treasury/(insert your covert organization here) REALLY let the secondary market try to survive on its own? With all that the existing regime has at stake in this election year do you believe that they will let rates fall apart? Honestly? Personally I do not.

Another issue which is important is the type of home you are buying, the where, the size, the amount of existing inventory in that price range. How easy is it or will it be for you to find something like you found now.

What is fundamentally and without a doubt true is that over the past few years many many people who post here have purchased. Similarly those who have waited have indeed not only missed out on lower prices but also selection. Nobody can argue that prices are higher now and selection is worse if we are talking about homes under 700k. The boat is well off shore now. The question is when will it return.

Moral hazard is another issue the most bearish posters seem to ignore. Debt is being rewritten, washed away, worked out, scrubbed out, however you want to put it. Once again, those people who have been responsible, paid their bills, saved money and towed the line are screwed. How are they rewarded? Well, they get horrid rates on CDs and they get to see neighbors bailed out. Similarly they get to see institutionalized corrupted maintained and officers in those BAILED OUT institutions given bonuses.

The issue of standard of living is a personal one. There are those who post who love renting. I rent. I hate it but I do it. I sincerely regret not buying in 2008. There are those who hate renting and enjoy the benefits of owning a home and being able to do whatever they want to a home and not have to answer to a landlord.

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To me there is no doubt the market will come down again but only when the bond market clearly falls apart. I believe we have now grown into a nanny state/nation and that large scale foreclosure numbers will be blunted by “social programs” that will be “good for society”. We may have some minor ups and downs but I do not think you will see a big run downhill due to foreclosures and/or employment. I do believe that at some point in time we will have a fairly severe dislocation in the bond market that will have dire consequences for housing prices. However I think that is quite far off, a few years at least. So for the next couple years I think you are okay. Once bond market fluctuations and inflation kick in, hold on tight.

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Thanks for your thoughts. I have (and still am) of the belief that prices SHOULD correct further, but am beginning to think that the government can and will do everthing in their power to prop housing up. I have waited for this ellusive shadow inventory that never seems to come. I thought of waiting to see what happens when the fed stops purchase of MBS, or when the tax credit expires (if it does), and then to see if the Option ARM recasts have an effect….on and on it goes. I still believe that the RE market has a much greater down side risk ahead. This is exactly what I needed to hear. Will think long and hard before I make the plunge.

[mercedes7]

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[mercedes7]

[quote=socrattt][quote=bob2007]Opinions will vary widely. Stay 5-10 years, probably ok. Have to sell in less than 5 years, maybe a 10%ish type loss. To me, even if it costs me 10%, if my quality of life goes up (meaning I am happier overall), its worth it.[/quote]

Bob, this is speculation at its best. Do yourself a favor and try not to throw numbers out. A higher than 10% decline is much more likely and the chances are if the banks were forced to release inventory there would be a much greater decline in many areas.

I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.

If you are looking at a home purchase at any point as a financial investment do yourself a favor and rent. The market (real estate and economic markets) will change dramatically in the next 12-18 months, so just be weary of the potential issues when contemplating a purchase.[/quote]

Socrattt, thank you for this information. This is the value of this dialogue and this forum. I was beginning to believe that there was no “shadow inventory” and that I had missed the boat and would be sorry one day.

[mercedes7]

[quote=socrattt][quote=bob2007]Opinions will vary widely. Stay 5-10 years, probably ok. Have to sell in less than 5 years, maybe a 10%ish type loss. To me, even if it costs me 10%, if my quality of life goes up (meaning I am happier overall), its worth it.[/quote]

Bob, this is speculation at its best. Do yourself a favor and try not to throw numbers out. A higher than 10% decline is much more likely and the chances are if the banks were forced to release inventory there would be a much greater decline in many areas.

I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.

If you are looking at a home purchase at any point as a financial investment do yourself a favor and rent. The market (real estate and economic markets) will change dramatically in the next 12-18 months, so just be weary of the potential issues when contemplating a purchase.[/quote]

Socrattt, thank you for this information. This is the value of this dialogue and this forum. I was beginning to believe that there was no “shadow inventory” and that I had missed the boat and would be sorry one day.

[mercedes7]

[quote=socrattt][quote=bob2007]Opinions will vary widely. Stay 5-10 years, probably ok. Have to sell in less than 5 years, maybe a 10%ish type loss. To me, even if it costs me 10%, if my quality of life goes up (meaning I am happier overall), its worth it.[/quote]

Bob, this is speculation at its best. Do yourself a favor and try not to throw numbers out. A higher than 10% decline is much more likely and the chances are if the banks were forced to release inventory there would be a much greater decline in many areas.

I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.

If you are looking at a home purchase at any point as a financial investment do yourself a favor and rent. The market (real estate and economic markets) will change dramatically in the next 12-18 months, so just be weary of the potential issues when contemplating a purchase.[/quote]

Socrattt, thank you for this information. This is the value of this dialogue and this forum. I was beginning to believe that there was no “shadow inventory” and that I had missed the boat and would be sorry one day.

[mercedes7]

[quote=socrattt][quote=bob2007]Opinions will vary widely. Stay 5-10 years, probably ok. Have to sell in less than 5 years, maybe a 10%ish type loss. To me, even if it costs me 10%, if my quality of life goes up (meaning I am happier overall), its worth it.[/quote]

Bob, this is speculation at its best. Do yourself a favor and try not to throw numbers out. A higher than 10% decline is much more likely and the chances are if the banks were forced to release inventory there would be a much greater decline in many areas.

I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.

If you are looking at a home purchase at any point as a financial investment do yourself a favor and rent. The market (real estate and economic markets) will change dramatically in the next 12-18 months, so just be weary of the potential issues when contemplating a purchase.[/quote]

Socrattt, thank you for this information. This is the value of this dialogue and this forum. I was beginning to believe that there was no “shadow inventory” and that I had missed the boat and would be sorry one day.

[mercedes7]

[quote=socrattt][quote=bob2007]Opinions will vary widely. Stay 5-10 years, probably ok. Have to sell in less than 5 years, maybe a 10%ish type loss. To me, even if it costs me 10%, if my quality of life goes up (meaning I am happier overall), its worth it.[/quote]

Bob, this is speculation at its best. Do yourself a favor and try not to throw numbers out. A higher than 10% decline is much more likely and the chances are if the banks were forced to release inventory there would be a much greater decline in many areas.

I had a meeting with some bankers at Chase on Friday and we discussed the issue of inventory. Chase alone currently has over 350,000 homes off the market. Sounds like anyone trying to predict the market could be off by a large margin if you ask me.

If you are looking at a home purchase at any point as a financial investment do yourself a favor and rent. The market (real estate and economic markets) will change dramatically in the next 12-18 months, so just be weary of the potential issues when contemplating a purchase.[/quote]

Socrattt, thank you for this information. This is the value of this dialogue and this forum. I was beginning to believe that there was no “shadow inventory” and that I had missed the boat and would be sorry one day.

[EconProf]

Mercedes7 you say you can put 2/3 of the purchase price as a down payment. This suggests you are getting pretty tired of getting 1 – 3% on your savings, right? This is budging you into the category of possible buyers.
I mention this because it strikes me that the puny interest rate that high-liquidity investors are getting on thier money may be pushing a lot more people onto the buy side–both for residential and commercial real estate.
We are seeing more cash buyers out there, who do the pro forma numbers on a possible purchase and discover they can, even with reduced rental income, make a relatively decent rate of return on a purchase. This applies to apartments, and especially CRE for the more adventuresome. Adds up to one more factor suggesting we are at the bottom of the cycle.

[EconProf]

Mercedes7 you say you can put 2/3 of the purchase price as a down payment. This suggests you are getting pretty tired of getting 1 – 3% on your savings, right? This is budging you into the category of possible buyers.
I mention this because it strikes me that the puny interest rate that high-liquidity investors are getting on thier money may be pushing a lot more people onto the buy side–both for residential and commercial real estate.
We are seeing more cash buyers out there, who do the pro forma numbers on a possible purchase and discover they can, even with reduced rental income, make a relatively decent rate of return on a purchase. This applies to apartments, and especially CRE for the more adventuresome. Adds up to one more factor suggesting we are at the bottom of the cycle.

[EconProf]

Mercedes7 you say you can put 2/3 of the purchase price as a down payment. This suggests you are getting pretty tired of getting 1 – 3% on your savings, right? This is budging you into the category of possible buyers.
I mention this because it strikes me that the puny interest rate that high-liquidity investors are getting on thier money may be pushing a lot more people onto the buy side–both for residential and commercial real estate.
We are seeing more cash buyers out there, who do the pro forma numbers on a possible purchase and discover they can, even with reduced rental income, make a relatively decent rate of return on a purchase. This applies to apartments, and especially CRE for the more adventuresome. Adds up to one more factor suggesting we are at the bottom of the cycle.

[EconProf]

Mercedes7 you say you can put 2/3 of the purchase price as a down payment. This suggests you are getting pretty tired of getting 1 – 3% on your savings, right? This is budging you into the category of possible buyers.
I mention this because it strikes me that the puny interest rate that high-liquidity investors are getting on thier money may be pushing a lot more people onto the buy side–both for residential and commercial real estate.
We are seeing more cash buyers out there, who do the pro forma numbers on a possible purchase and discover they can, even with reduced rental income, make a relatively decent rate of return on a purchase. This applies to apartments, and especially CRE for the more adventuresome. Adds up to one more factor suggesting we are at the bottom of the cycle.

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