Cielo in Ranch Santa Fe

[gn]

I’m trying to learn more about Cielo in RSF.

There are 2 properties:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071034419-7746_Calle_Amanacer_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076010173-17836_Avenida_Amatista_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067

Relative to the current market prices (realizing that everything is currently way too high), are these 2 homes “reasonably priced” ? Is Cielo one of the least expensive parts of RSF ?

[gn]

SD Realtor & sdrealtor,

I was wondering if you can provide your opinion on the following property:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-061058403-7819_Camino_De_La_Dora_Rancho_Santa_Fe_CA_92067

It’s been on the market for a long time. In January, it was reduced to $1.8M. What would be a fair price for it ?

[Ozzie]

Cielo was really Escondido, but they successfully were able to get a RSF zip code. You get RSF schools, but you’re probably 15 minutes to downtown RSF unless there is a big delay on Del Dios Highway which there is quite often. I couldn’t deal with the hassle of possibly getting caught in traffic every time you want to go to the store or out to eat. If you want a nice place with a lot of land, you might do better in Olivenhain where you can get 1/2 acre or more and a newer house for about $1.3mm – $1.6mm

[gn]

Ozzie,

Do you know the traffic pattern on Del Dios ? As in, which direction (east or west) is the traffic heavy in the morning & afternoon on a weekday ?

[SD Realtor]

Without getting into to much detail, yes Cielo is one of the lesser expensive areas. Currently there are 208 active listings and 28 pendings in 92067. There was a sale on 7761 Calle Amancer that closed in November of 06 for 1.8M even. Couldnt see if there were any credits. In the 1148 B7 mapcode which is where Amancer is there are currently 3 actives, no pendings and there were 2 solds since 8/1/06.

Avenida Amatista is in 1148 J7 and it is the least expensive of a total of 4 active listings in that mapcode. The other 3 active listings are considerably larger homes. There is one sold at 1.85M that closed on 4/16/07 on Camino De La Dora, 4535 sqft. Also the neighbor 17835 Avenida Amatista expired on 12/29/06 but that was a monster, 6234 sq ft for 3.4M… no buyers.

I have not had any listings in Cielo. I am a bit more familiar with Fairbanks Ranch and have had a listing there. So yes these two are relatively reasonably priced against the current Active homes.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I would agree with what Ozzie said. The pattern on Del Dios is more east to west. Getting to Del Dios from Via De La Valle is more of a pain in the butt then anything else.

I also did a more thorough look at Cielo by doing a search only on that subdivision. Since 6/1/06 there were 14 solds, 32 expireds, 20 cancelled and 1 withdrawn. Of the sales, the price ranges from 1.7M to 3.3M.

So to be honest the 1.895 for Amancer is a little rich for me. I think you could negotiate the price down a little bit and they would bite. The only thing is that they just came on the market so they will be reluctant… looks like they need a bit of seasoning. Still they are technically the cheapest home that is active on the MLS in Cielo right now.

Amatista has been on the market since 2/1/07 and they are looking ripe for a reduction.

Let me know if you want me to send you all of the MLS details on the area. I can shoot them over to ya.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Camino De La Dora are some stubborn sellers! They have been on the market since 7/7/06. Now they tried to get 2.3M back then and have moved the price down to what you see today. They are the 3rd cheapest home in Cielo besides Amancer and Amatista.

On a price per sq foot it is a much better deal as it is 1000 sq feet bigger.

Now, what would a fair price be? hehehehe… well the other two sales on the street, 7879 and 7992 were for 1.85M and 1.85M respectively. Get this though, 7879 sold for 1.85 back in 7/31/06 and is 3719 sq ft. 7992 sold for 1.85 back on 4/16/07 and was 4535 sq ft!! So you can see the value on a sq ft basis has gone way down. It is arguable that 7819 does compare with 7992. Now without really doing a more thorough analysis and going out to look at the property, you could give them a lowball offer at 1.55-1.6 to see if they would respond.

Now I am sure everyone here will tell you how they wouldn’t pay nearly this or that for these homes. My advice is based on the reality of the situation… if you do really want this home and you are a serious buyer then you need to tread lightly, you want to get a good deal but not piss them off. Also it is not know how motivated they are. We would need to study more about how long they have been there and such. Actually they should be motivated as they bought in 05 for 1.8M. They have refinanced and are pretty much up to their nose in debt. A first mtg for 1.44M and a second for 180k back in 2/4/05. Then a refi on 10/18/05 for 1.65M then a second for 200k on 3/20/06.

Unless they have cash to come in at closing this will be a short sale. So they may not even be able to negotiate under a certain level as they will need authorization from the lender to sell short… Since they don’t have much equity in the home, they may be content to let it foreclose.

gn if you want to put your email on the post I will send you more info about this place.

SD Realtor

[gn]

SD Realtor,

Thank you very much for the information.

The information you came up explains why 7819 Camino De La Dora is not selling.

Is Cielo the least expensive part of RSF b/c it’s on the eastern most part of RSF ?

I looked up 7992 Camino De La Dora on Zillow. Zillow showed the house being situated behind another house (7976). From the front door of 7992, you look directly into the back yard of 7976. Isn’t that odd ? Why would anyone want to buy a luxury house that is situated behind another house ?

[SD Realtor]

On the MLS for 92067 there are several active listings that are lower price then Cielo. The lowest price detached home that is fee simple ownership is on the west side in Senterra. It is a 3k sf home listed at 1.399-1.475. Personally I like the west side better simply for convenience. Then there are several other listings in the 1.5M and up range in Del Rayo Downs. Also Hacienda Santa Fe out near Crosby has one less then Cielo. These are also on the east side. So yeah the east side (with the one exception seems to dominate the cheaper homes in RSF)

So there are a few scatterings of listings in 92067 that are less then Cielo.

SD Realtor

[Ozzie]

I don’t travel that way too often, but I think it’s heavier going East in the PM and West in the AM. There’s a traffic light which (I think) is just East of Cielo and I’ve seen it backed up for almost a mile so it can take 15 minutes to get through it. Not sure if that is an everyday thing or not.

[Bugs]

Remember when I was making references to “RSF wannabes”? Cielo is one of those wannabes. Yes, it’s in the 92067 zip area, but it doesn’t have much else in common with the rest of RSF other than the fact there’s a golf course.

There are two sides to the project, a north side and a south side; the latter being the “low end” with lots as small as 1/2 acre. The north side is much larger and has a lot more lots, and for the most part those lots are larger.

One of the factors that detracts a bit from the appeal is that relative to the sizes and prices of the homes the usable lot areas are very small. On most of those lots you can squeeze in a pool and deck but that’s about it. We’re not talking about a lot of separation between the homes or natural features that provide any illusion of privacy like you’d find in the flatter areas.

So it would generally be a big mistake to compare 7,500 SqFt of new house in Cielo to most of the other neighborhoods in RSF, except for maybe a couple of the projects east of the Covenant area. A couple projects in the Del Mar Heights area or the upper end of Santaluz (also RSF pretenders) would probably be a more direct comparison.

If a new home of similar quality in the Covenant area on a similar or slightly larger lot would sell at $3mil, then that home in Cielo might reasonably sell for $2mil. The difference is that great.

At any rate, when looking at all the RSF wannabes, they’re all hurting for sales right now, and it’s only going to get worse from here. These spec builders have built a lot more McMansions than our market can support, and more are in process as we speak. The last time I looked we had almost a 2-year supply of listings of these homes on tap relative to the closed sales.

[gn]

“These spec builders have built a lot more McMansions than our market can support, and more are in process as we speak”

Currently, where are they building in 92067 ?

[Bugs]

They’re still building in Cielo, and there’s still a lot going on over in The Bridges (even though that place technically has its own Zip). The Crosby, which is located directly across the intersection from Cielo (albeit in 92127’s zip) is also going string, although those homes are mostly production homes, not customs. Then of course, there’s Santaluz, about 1/3 of which are customs. Then there are all the wannabe projects in the Del Mar Heights area (Rancho Del Mar, The Preserve, Duck Pond, Meadows Del Mar), as well as Wildflower in Olivenhain.

There are no shortage of McMansions in North Central. And most of them have easier access to the I-5 corridor. Cielo seems to be more proximate to the I-15 corridor.

[Author]

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