China

[Coronita]

Adios Huawei. Meet your cousin ZTE and its similar fate.

[The-Shoveler]

The Silk road thing was probably never really going to happen anyway but seems all but doomed now.

They are going (or were) going to have a hard enough time just keeping the in country infrastructure projects going and maintained even without the trade war.

It was unlikely to be sustainable over the long term anyway.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]The Silk road thing was probably never really going to happen anyway but seems all but doomed now.

They are going (or were) going to have a hard enough time just keeping the in country infrastructure projects going and maintained even without the trade war.

It was unlikely to be sustainable over the long term anyway.[/quote]

Unsustainable? If you’re in business and your competitor’s model is unsustainable, would you be concerned?

Why is the US going around the world telling people not to take infrastructure investments from China.

Mike Pence made a very nice speech at APEC saying that America offers real help without debt traps. Really? Just empty words. What this shows is that my country, the USA, sucks and isn’t concerned about development for the world and is only concerned about containing China. Where is the new, no-strings-attached new Marshall plan for the world?

[The-Shoveler]

The thing about building expensive infrastructure is that it is then expensive to maintain, it is a task that can never stop once it is put into use.

Building it would be extremely expensive,

IMO the more interesting thing is if this Huawei issue is not resolved, who is going to build the 5G phones?
QCOM still owns the chip sets.

Seems there has been a 90 day reprieve on Huawei ban. don’t know if this applies to QCOM or not.

Maybe just a negotiating tactic, we will see.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]
Maybe just a negotiating tactic, we will see.[/quote]

Not a good thing. Certain things should be based on objective criteria.

The Obama administration had an gentlemen’s agreement for China to adopt US 4G standards with 5G up for play. At the time, nobody thought that China would innovate so fast. The assumption that that China was a laggard copycat export economy that would stay behind forever. Innovation would not be possible because of corruption. Infrastructure would collapse because contractors would substitute bad concrete so they could siphon off cash, etc…

In sports, you support your team but you honor the winner for their hard word. I am afraid that we have become a country of sore losers — a country of Trump supporters.

Take the Philippines, our former colony. They need infrastructure to alleviate congestion. It’s only after they started talking to China that Japan said they would finance some work. In Panama, they needed a need bridge so China built it for them so they dumped Taiwan. Why didn’t we proactively help with development in our own sphere of influence. We suck and now we are also-ran and people know it.

My friend from Panama tells me about her brothers and sisters back home (who are doing better than her own low-ambition military husband). They love the USA, holiday here and embrace American culture. But they invest in land along the HSR that China is planning and they are making money thanks to China. China is building a new middle-class around the world and improving living conditions. We should celebrate that, if not join China and try to do better than them.

[The-Shoveler]

Yes- I agree,
We should encourage IP theft, Demand that everything sold here be made here and that all technology used be shared.
Engage in corporate espionage.

Only give/help others if there is something in it for us.

We should subsidize some critical industries more to eliminate any foreign competition.
We should target all the industries they are.

Solar should be required to made here, batteries etc..

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]
We should subsidize some critical industries more to eliminate any foreign competition.
We should target all the industries they are.
[/quote]

Remember that’s against the laws of economics. The Soviets did it, the French, the Mexicans, and Venezuelans too. Government picking winners and losers is a huge waste of money and bound to fail.

When I hear about China creating corporate champions and unleashing them onto the world, I have to wonder about the superpowers of their bureaucrats.

[The-Shoveler]

It’s called dumping to kill competition and yes it works if that is what you are fighting.

[The-Shoveler]

Delete

[Myriad]

There are many benefits and flaws with each system.
Maybe our leaders will be smart enough to resolve this without a new version of the Cold War.
Past history isn’t so optimistic – though China’s rise isn’t guaranteed, especially on a GDP/per capital level. 12 out of 16 historical scenarios resulted in war.

https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap/case-file

[Coronita]

Huawei mobile is definitely dead.

It’s not just hardware supplier are cutting them off that’s the problem…. It’s all the software that’s also being cut off.

Google cutting them out of Android was already pretty bad, but at least they could substitute their O/S, even though it would be drastically inferior to Android….

But ARM, a British company, cutting them off is really bad, because it basically means they are completely on their own to design processors….They can’t simply leverage ARM, which is what ever other company that wants to do their own silicon uses. it would take years for them to do this

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-chip-designer-arm-says-103257632.html

[The-Shoveler]

I truly hope we can get some type of deal, but anyway
XI said to prepare for hard times (they now have a generation that has never known hard times – 30+ years)

I doubt the regime can survive if there is any prolonged downturn.

We will see I guess.

[Coronita]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I truly hope we can get some type of deal, but anyway
XI said to prepare for hard times (they now have a generation that has never known hard times – 30+ years)

I doubt the regime can survive if there is any prolonged downturn.

We will see I guess.[/quote]

The Chinese have a lot more staying power to withstand economic adversity as the majority of the people in China are still poor and are use to being poor. Then again in America, the way you get around economic adversity (at least temporarily) is to relax borrowing standards, borrow or print more more money, give out more free public subsidies, and kick the can down the road….So it’s a stalemate. Different ways for two different worlds to cope with economic calamity

[The-Shoveler]

I don’t know, seems (at least in the major cities) the retirement age is between 50-60 years old.

These people (the majority) get more money now than when they were working, they are used to traveling the world etc.. (touring in motorhomes around china etc…).

It is much different than it was 20 or even 10 years ago.

The Kids get spoiled LOL, they are used to expect more opportunity.

Anyway hopefully some deal can be reached

LOL maybe they will end up with a China-Trump like leader (make China great again).

Or Mao-2.0

[Coronita]

MSM really got the message wrong… It’s not the US government underestimated the power of Huawei.. Huawei totally underestimated the reach of the US government and US tech contributions… Cutting off chip design technology and software design/egosystems is far more detrimental that just cutting off hardware supplies… People who don’t understand this were saying that Chinese companies could simply replace US suppliers with Chinese suppliers. It’s not so simple.. If they could, they would have already done so because it certainly would have cost less to use a Chinese supplier versus an American one, if that option existed…

We knew it was going to be this part of the ban that would put the nail on the coffin.
China can’t retaliate this… Drastically, what if US bans every chinese cell phone/tablet maker for using ARM… China will need to start with china design from scratch.. No x86, not ARM based processor (even if they designed it in house)… Nothing…

Checkmate.

Huawei will concede.. That would survive if they don’t.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/arm-huawei-chips-ban-us,39404.html

There’s a difference between setbacks and catastrophes. Huawei losing Google, Intel, and Qualcomm as suppliers is a setback. ARM reportedly cutting ties with the company, on the other hand, could be a bona fide catastrophe.

The BBC today reported that ARM told employees to suspend “all active contracts, support entitlements, and any pending engagements” with Huawei because of the company’s addition to a blacklist by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

It might seem weird for a Japanese-owned company based in the UK to cut ties with a Chinese firm because of U.S. trade restrictions. But ARM said its products rely on tech from the U.S., so it has to abide by its regulations.

ARM didn’t send a new memo in response to the 90-day temporary license the U.S. issued to let Huawei suppliers do business with the company. Instead, ARM warned its employees not to even talk to their counterparts at Huawei unofficially.

Huawei remained hopeful as more and more American companies, ya know, planned to follow U.S. law by no longer working with it. Components? Huawei’s said to have three months’ worth. Operating systems? Huawei’s covered.

But losing ARM (no word on LEG) effectively scuttles Huawei’s plans to design its own chips, because those processors would almost certainly rely on ARM designs, just like pretty much every smartphone and tablet on the market.

China’s semiconductor industry simply isn’t prepared to design and manufacture chips that aren’t based on American tech. Huawei would have to work a miracle to be unaffected by losing the ability to build on top of ARM’s foundation.

With the way things are going, though, we wouldn’t be as surprised as we should be if a report claimed Huawei had been working on wholly original chip designs for a while. This should be a catastrophe; let’s see if Huawei can avert it.

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