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Coronita.
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June 26, 2008 at 11:27 AM #228837June 26, 2008 at 11:51 AM #228863
Anonymous
GuestHere is the article I mentioned: article
Here is the SP 500 P/E valuation over time (using 12 months trailing:
sp500-peHere is the SP 500 “corrected” P/E valuation over time (using the past 10 years earnings): sp500-pe-corr
June 26, 2008 at 11:51 AM #228981Anonymous
GuestHere is the article I mentioned: article
Here is the SP 500 P/E valuation over time (using 12 months trailing:
sp500-peHere is the SP 500 “corrected” P/E valuation over time (using the past 10 years earnings): sp500-pe-corr
June 26, 2008 at 11:51 AM #228987Anonymous
GuestHere is the article I mentioned: article
Here is the SP 500 P/E valuation over time (using 12 months trailing:
sp500-peHere is the SP 500 “corrected” P/E valuation over time (using the past 10 years earnings): sp500-pe-corr
June 26, 2008 at 11:51 AM #229024Anonymous
GuestHere is the article I mentioned: article
Here is the SP 500 P/E valuation over time (using 12 months trailing:
sp500-peHere is the SP 500 “corrected” P/E valuation over time (using the past 10 years earnings): sp500-pe-corr
June 26, 2008 at 11:51 AM #229038Anonymous
GuestHere is the article I mentioned: article
Here is the SP 500 P/E valuation over time (using 12 months trailing:
sp500-peHere is the SP 500 “corrected” P/E valuation over time (using the past 10 years earnings): sp500-pe-corr
June 26, 2008 at 12:45 PM #228910Rich Toscano
KeymasterI wrote the article you refer to.
[quote=vkailas]The go on to say we are currently very safely in an expensive valuation so you probably should not invest considering that only rarely when in a expensive valuation do investors get good returns. [/quote]
That’s not what the article says at all… that fact that you come away with that conclusion indicates that you didn’t read it very carefully. (Further proof is found below).
[quote=vkailas]These kind of articles or common in a down market.[/quote]
If you view the articles page on the pca site, you will see that we were putting up bearish articles in early 2007 well before the market peaked. So your implicit accusation that we wait until a down market to put up such articles is incorrect.
[quote=vkailas]Trying to scare investors even more.[/quote]
We truly believe that the market is overvalued, we invest accordingly, and we try to educate people as such. The accusation that we are trying to scare people (with the implication that we don’t even believe what we are writing) is very insulting.
[quote=vkailas]The article however glances over the fact that their valuation is an average of the past 10 years of earnings. And while it’s historically rare to have good returns in markets with similar average valuations over the past 10 years, the tech bubble we experienced is also rare with astronomical valuations that made no sense and lower earnings that other past booms. Using an average of all these lower earnings over the past 10 years leads to a average expensive valuation. [/quote]
The valuation is based on the past 10 years’ earnings, not on the past 10 years’ valuations, so the above is incorrect.
Rich
June 26, 2008 at 12:45 PM #229030Rich Toscano
KeymasterI wrote the article you refer to.
[quote=vkailas]The go on to say we are currently very safely in an expensive valuation so you probably should not invest considering that only rarely when in a expensive valuation do investors get good returns. [/quote]
That’s not what the article says at all… that fact that you come away with that conclusion indicates that you didn’t read it very carefully. (Further proof is found below).
[quote=vkailas]These kind of articles or common in a down market.[/quote]
If you view the articles page on the pca site, you will see that we were putting up bearish articles in early 2007 well before the market peaked. So your implicit accusation that we wait until a down market to put up such articles is incorrect.
[quote=vkailas]Trying to scare investors even more.[/quote]
We truly believe that the market is overvalued, we invest accordingly, and we try to educate people as such. The accusation that we are trying to scare people (with the implication that we don’t even believe what we are writing) is very insulting.
[quote=vkailas]The article however glances over the fact that their valuation is an average of the past 10 years of earnings. And while it’s historically rare to have good returns in markets with similar average valuations over the past 10 years, the tech bubble we experienced is also rare with astronomical valuations that made no sense and lower earnings that other past booms. Using an average of all these lower earnings over the past 10 years leads to a average expensive valuation. [/quote]
The valuation is based on the past 10 years’ earnings, not on the past 10 years’ valuations, so the above is incorrect.
Rich
June 26, 2008 at 12:45 PM #229037Rich Toscano
KeymasterI wrote the article you refer to.
[quote=vkailas]The go on to say we are currently very safely in an expensive valuation so you probably should not invest considering that only rarely when in a expensive valuation do investors get good returns. [/quote]
That’s not what the article says at all… that fact that you come away with that conclusion indicates that you didn’t read it very carefully. (Further proof is found below).
[quote=vkailas]These kind of articles or common in a down market.[/quote]
If you view the articles page on the pca site, you will see that we were putting up bearish articles in early 2007 well before the market peaked. So your implicit accusation that we wait until a down market to put up such articles is incorrect.
[quote=vkailas]Trying to scare investors even more.[/quote]
We truly believe that the market is overvalued, we invest accordingly, and we try to educate people as such. The accusation that we are trying to scare people (with the implication that we don’t even believe what we are writing) is very insulting.
[quote=vkailas]The article however glances over the fact that their valuation is an average of the past 10 years of earnings. And while it’s historically rare to have good returns in markets with similar average valuations over the past 10 years, the tech bubble we experienced is also rare with astronomical valuations that made no sense and lower earnings that other past booms. Using an average of all these lower earnings over the past 10 years leads to a average expensive valuation. [/quote]
The valuation is based on the past 10 years’ earnings, not on the past 10 years’ valuations, so the above is incorrect.
Rich
June 26, 2008 at 12:45 PM #229072Rich Toscano
KeymasterI wrote the article you refer to.
[quote=vkailas]The go on to say we are currently very safely in an expensive valuation so you probably should not invest considering that only rarely when in a expensive valuation do investors get good returns. [/quote]
That’s not what the article says at all… that fact that you come away with that conclusion indicates that you didn’t read it very carefully. (Further proof is found below).
[quote=vkailas]These kind of articles or common in a down market.[/quote]
If you view the articles page on the pca site, you will see that we were putting up bearish articles in early 2007 well before the market peaked. So your implicit accusation that we wait until a down market to put up such articles is incorrect.
[quote=vkailas]Trying to scare investors even more.[/quote]
We truly believe that the market is overvalued, we invest accordingly, and we try to educate people as such. The accusation that we are trying to scare people (with the implication that we don’t even believe what we are writing) is very insulting.
[quote=vkailas]The article however glances over the fact that their valuation is an average of the past 10 years of earnings. And while it’s historically rare to have good returns in markets with similar average valuations over the past 10 years, the tech bubble we experienced is also rare with astronomical valuations that made no sense and lower earnings that other past booms. Using an average of all these lower earnings over the past 10 years leads to a average expensive valuation. [/quote]
The valuation is based on the past 10 years’ earnings, not on the past 10 years’ valuations, so the above is incorrect.
Rich
June 26, 2008 at 12:45 PM #229087Rich Toscano
KeymasterI wrote the article you refer to.
[quote=vkailas]The go on to say we are currently very safely in an expensive valuation so you probably should not invest considering that only rarely when in a expensive valuation do investors get good returns. [/quote]
That’s not what the article says at all… that fact that you come away with that conclusion indicates that you didn’t read it very carefully. (Further proof is found below).
[quote=vkailas]These kind of articles or common in a down market.[/quote]
If you view the articles page on the pca site, you will see that we were putting up bearish articles in early 2007 well before the market peaked. So your implicit accusation that we wait until a down market to put up such articles is incorrect.
[quote=vkailas]Trying to scare investors even more.[/quote]
We truly believe that the market is overvalued, we invest accordingly, and we try to educate people as such. The accusation that we are trying to scare people (with the implication that we don’t even believe what we are writing) is very insulting.
[quote=vkailas]The article however glances over the fact that their valuation is an average of the past 10 years of earnings. And while it’s historically rare to have good returns in markets with similar average valuations over the past 10 years, the tech bubble we experienced is also rare with astronomical valuations that made no sense and lower earnings that other past booms. Using an average of all these lower earnings over the past 10 years leads to a average expensive valuation. [/quote]
The valuation is based on the past 10 years’ earnings, not on the past 10 years’ valuations, so the above is incorrect.
Rich
June 26, 2008 at 2:39 PM #228995Anonymous
GuestThanks for clarifications. I was wondering if you would be so kinds as to voice your opinion for the aforementioned topic of this thread. The woman has a sizable amount of money she wants to keep safe for a 2-3 years.
Sorry for my misunderstanding. I am still learning and thanks for your insights.
June 26, 2008 at 2:39 PM #229115Anonymous
GuestThanks for clarifications. I was wondering if you would be so kinds as to voice your opinion for the aforementioned topic of this thread. The woman has a sizable amount of money she wants to keep safe for a 2-3 years.
Sorry for my misunderstanding. I am still learning and thanks for your insights.
June 26, 2008 at 2:39 PM #229124Anonymous
GuestThanks for clarifications. I was wondering if you would be so kinds as to voice your opinion for the aforementioned topic of this thread. The woman has a sizable amount of money she wants to keep safe for a 2-3 years.
Sorry for my misunderstanding. I am still learning and thanks for your insights.
June 26, 2008 at 2:39 PM #229158Anonymous
GuestThanks for clarifications. I was wondering if you would be so kinds as to voice your opinion for the aforementioned topic of this thread. The woman has a sizable amount of money she wants to keep safe for a 2-3 years.
Sorry for my misunderstanding. I am still learning and thanks for your insights.
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