Case of Case Shiller calls the bottom

[sdrealtor]

Just a thought…..

Most of the distress in the North County Coastal markets seem to be in the newer tracts that were built 2003 to 2007 like San Elijo Hills (if you can call it coastal), Bressi Ranch, La Costa Greens, La Costa Oaks and Encinitas Ranch to some extent. It looks like everyone will soon be able to buy those McMansions with sky high Mello Roos and HOA fees on postage stamp sized lots that they so covet around here. (Tongue firmly in cheek).

[Multiplepropertyowner]

EX-SD,
Why be a %$##$*? With comments like that, I stoked you are an ex-San Diegan.
MPO

[Multiplepropertyowner]

EX-SD,
Why be a %$##$*? With comments like that, I stoked you are an ex-San Diegan.
MPO

[Multiplepropertyowner]

EX-SD,
Why be a %$##$*? With comments like that, I stoked you are an ex-San Diegan.
MPO

[Multiplepropertyowner]

EX-SD,
Why be a %$##$*? With comments like that, I stoked you are an ex-San Diegan.
MPO

[Multiplepropertyowner]

EX-SD,
Why be a %$##$*? With comments like that, I stoked you are an ex-San Diegan.
MPO

[Multiplepropertyowner]

“Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V”

I think you are on the right track jpinpb. I am thinking we could be flat for at least 3 years, but that all depends on how many people are sitting on the sideline, and if credit markets loosen up, then there could be a mini buying spree. My call is a possible slight bump of 1% in housing prices in the next 18 months, and then flat for 3 years, but I think the Fed has done a lot to calm the avg. buyer. Tomorrow will be a big day as Paulson speaks on housing and credit markets and March housing starts are released.

[Multiplepropertyowner]

“Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V”

I think you are on the right track jpinpb. I am thinking we could be flat for at least 3 years, but that all depends on how many people are sitting on the sideline, and if credit markets loosen up, then there could be a mini buying spree. My call is a possible slight bump of 1% in housing prices in the next 18 months, and then flat for 3 years, but I think the Fed has done a lot to calm the avg. buyer. Tomorrow will be a big day as Paulson speaks on housing and credit markets and March housing starts are released.

[Multiplepropertyowner]

“Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V”

I think you are on the right track jpinpb. I am thinking we could be flat for at least 3 years, but that all depends on how many people are sitting on the sideline, and if credit markets loosen up, then there could be a mini buying spree. My call is a possible slight bump of 1% in housing prices in the next 18 months, and then flat for 3 years, but I think the Fed has done a lot to calm the avg. buyer. Tomorrow will be a big day as Paulson speaks on housing and credit markets and March housing starts are released.

[Multiplepropertyowner]

“Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V”

I think you are on the right track jpinpb. I am thinking we could be flat for at least 3 years, but that all depends on how many people are sitting on the sideline, and if credit markets loosen up, then there could be a mini buying spree. My call is a possible slight bump of 1% in housing prices in the next 18 months, and then flat for 3 years, but I think the Fed has done a lot to calm the avg. buyer. Tomorrow will be a big day as Paulson speaks on housing and credit markets and March housing starts are released.

[Multiplepropertyowner]

“Even IF the bottom is here, how long of a flatline. I seriously doubt the chart is going to be a V”

I think you are on the right track jpinpb. I am thinking we could be flat for at least 3 years, but that all depends on how many people are sitting on the sideline, and if credit markets loosen up, then there could be a mini buying spree. My call is a possible slight bump of 1% in housing prices in the next 18 months, and then flat for 3 years, but I think the Fed has done a lot to calm the avg. buyer. Tomorrow will be a big day as Paulson speaks on housing and credit markets and March housing starts are released.

[LA_Renter]

“Case is speaking of the national aggregate market.
That is very different scenario than SD, OC, LA, and Miami.”

Bingo, many markets did not see near the appreciation that these areas did. Also keep in mind previous housing downturns were caused by recessions that were the result of some external force outside of housing. This time housing is the CAUSE of the current gloom and really we have just now entered into a recession, we have seen what happens when prices become completely disconnected from fundamentals but we haven’t felt the FULL impact of the economic downturn on housing yet.

[LA_Renter]

“Case is speaking of the national aggregate market.
That is very different scenario than SD, OC, LA, and Miami.”

Bingo, many markets did not see near the appreciation that these areas did. Also keep in mind previous housing downturns were caused by recessions that were the result of some external force outside of housing. This time housing is the CAUSE of the current gloom and really we have just now entered into a recession, we have seen what happens when prices become completely disconnected from fundamentals but we haven’t felt the FULL impact of the economic downturn on housing yet.

[LA_Renter]

“Case is speaking of the national aggregate market.
That is very different scenario than SD, OC, LA, and Miami.”

Bingo, many markets did not see near the appreciation that these areas did. Also keep in mind previous housing downturns were caused by recessions that were the result of some external force outside of housing. This time housing is the CAUSE of the current gloom and really we have just now entered into a recession, we have seen what happens when prices become completely disconnected from fundamentals but we haven’t felt the FULL impact of the economic downturn on housing yet.

[LA_Renter]

“Case is speaking of the national aggregate market.
That is very different scenario than SD, OC, LA, and Miami.”

Bingo, many markets did not see near the appreciation that these areas did. Also keep in mind previous housing downturns were caused by recessions that were the result of some external force outside of housing. This time housing is the CAUSE of the current gloom and really we have just now entered into a recession, we have seen what happens when prices become completely disconnected from fundamentals but we haven’t felt the FULL impact of the economic downturn on housing yet.

[Author]

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