Case of Case Shiller calls the bottom

[sdrealtor]

Thanks for the reality check NSR. His comment was for the US not So cal. Other parts of the country have affordability while we do not. While volume seems to be bottoming out on a Y-O-Y basis to some extent, I dont think anyone around hear is calling for a bottom in prices with a straight face.

Furthermore, if you look at the bottom in 1991 in housing starts, resale prices didnt bottom here until around 1995. Thus the chart may actually support the price bottom between 2010 to 2012 that so many of us have been calling for the last 2 years.

[SDEngineer]

Just looking at the chart surveyor posted. The “V” shaped recovery there (in housing starts) occurred in 1991-1992.

But prices continued to fall (in real – not inflationary adjusted – dollars) until sometime around 1996 or 1997.

As another poster pointed out, the bottom of the housing construction sector (to economists anyway) doesn’t necessarily result in a pricing rebound (and indeed, from previous examples, doesn’t even mean prices will stabilize).

Edit: beaten to the punch by sdrealtor lol

[SDEngineer]

Just looking at the chart surveyor posted. The “V” shaped recovery there (in housing starts) occurred in 1991-1992.

But prices continued to fall (in real – not inflationary adjusted – dollars) until sometime around 1996 or 1997.

As another poster pointed out, the bottom of the housing construction sector (to economists anyway) doesn’t necessarily result in a pricing rebound (and indeed, from previous examples, doesn’t even mean prices will stabilize).

Edit: beaten to the punch by sdrealtor lol

[SDEngineer]

Just looking at the chart surveyor posted. The “V” shaped recovery there (in housing starts) occurred in 1991-1992.

But prices continued to fall (in real – not inflationary adjusted – dollars) until sometime around 1996 or 1997.

As another poster pointed out, the bottom of the housing construction sector (to economists anyway) doesn’t necessarily result in a pricing rebound (and indeed, from previous examples, doesn’t even mean prices will stabilize).

Edit: beaten to the punch by sdrealtor lol

[SDEngineer]

Just looking at the chart surveyor posted. The “V” shaped recovery there (in housing starts) occurred in 1991-1992.

But prices continued to fall (in real – not inflationary adjusted – dollars) until sometime around 1996 or 1997.

As another poster pointed out, the bottom of the housing construction sector (to economists anyway) doesn’t necessarily result in a pricing rebound (and indeed, from previous examples, doesn’t even mean prices will stabilize).

Edit: beaten to the punch by sdrealtor lol

[SDEngineer]

Just looking at the chart surveyor posted. The “V” shaped recovery there (in housing starts) occurred in 1991-1992.

But prices continued to fall (in real – not inflationary adjusted – dollars) until sometime around 1996 or 1997.

As another poster pointed out, the bottom of the housing construction sector (to economists anyway) doesn’t necessarily result in a pricing rebound (and indeed, from previous examples, doesn’t even mean prices will stabilize).

Edit: beaten to the punch by sdrealtor lol

[surveyor]

charts

I don’t interpret the chart to mean that we are at the “cheapest” prices for real estate right now or soon. However, in the larger economic environment, the possibility that housing starts will begin to go up bodes well at least for the economy, because maybe it will start generating more jobs, more jobs means more money, more money means people spending it, etc. etc. Whether the chart indicates higher housing prices in the Scripps Ranch zip code 92131, I doubt it.

I myself am starting to see the beginnings of the housing starts. We are seeing dead projects being bought up and springing back to life. Soon, they will start actually building again, hiring more people.

[surveyor]

charts

I don’t interpret the chart to mean that we are at the “cheapest” prices for real estate right now or soon. However, in the larger economic environment, the possibility that housing starts will begin to go up bodes well at least for the economy, because maybe it will start generating more jobs, more jobs means more money, more money means people spending it, etc. etc. Whether the chart indicates higher housing prices in the Scripps Ranch zip code 92131, I doubt it.

I myself am starting to see the beginnings of the housing starts. We are seeing dead projects being bought up and springing back to life. Soon, they will start actually building again, hiring more people.

[surveyor]

charts

I don’t interpret the chart to mean that we are at the “cheapest” prices for real estate right now or soon. However, in the larger economic environment, the possibility that housing starts will begin to go up bodes well at least for the economy, because maybe it will start generating more jobs, more jobs means more money, more money means people spending it, etc. etc. Whether the chart indicates higher housing prices in the Scripps Ranch zip code 92131, I doubt it.

I myself am starting to see the beginnings of the housing starts. We are seeing dead projects being bought up and springing back to life. Soon, they will start actually building again, hiring more people.

[surveyor]

charts

I don’t interpret the chart to mean that we are at the “cheapest” prices for real estate right now or soon. However, in the larger economic environment, the possibility that housing starts will begin to go up bodes well at least for the economy, because maybe it will start generating more jobs, more jobs means more money, more money means people spending it, etc. etc. Whether the chart indicates higher housing prices in the Scripps Ranch zip code 92131, I doubt it.

I myself am starting to see the beginnings of the housing starts. We are seeing dead projects being bought up and springing back to life. Soon, they will start actually building again, hiring more people.

[surveyor]

charts

I don’t interpret the chart to mean that we are at the “cheapest” prices for real estate right now or soon. However, in the larger economic environment, the possibility that housing starts will begin to go up bodes well at least for the economy, because maybe it will start generating more jobs, more jobs means more money, more money means people spending it, etc. etc. Whether the chart indicates higher housing prices in the Scripps Ranch zip code 92131, I doubt it.

I myself am starting to see the beginnings of the housing starts. We are seeing dead projects being bought up and springing back to life. Soon, they will start actually building again, hiring more people.

[an]

surveyor, can you elaborate more on this?

I myself am starting to see the beginnings of the housing starts. We are seeing dead projects being bought up and springing back to life. Soon, they will start actually building again, hiring more people.

Do you see anything in the North County coming back to life? To me, the only good deals out there are either from builders or REO. Since new housing stock are mostly large SFR or small condo/townhouse, there’s really no option for something who are looking for a modest 1500-2000 sq-ft SFR.

[an]

surveyor, can you elaborate more on this?

I myself am starting to see the beginnings of the housing starts. We are seeing dead projects being bought up and springing back to life. Soon, they will start actually building again, hiring more people.

Do you see anything in the North County coming back to life? To me, the only good deals out there are either from builders or REO. Since new housing stock are mostly large SFR or small condo/townhouse, there’s really no option for something who are looking for a modest 1500-2000 sq-ft SFR.

[an]

surveyor, can you elaborate more on this?

I myself am starting to see the beginnings of the housing starts. We are seeing dead projects being bought up and springing back to life. Soon, they will start actually building again, hiring more people.

Do you see anything in the North County coming back to life? To me, the only good deals out there are either from builders or REO. Since new housing stock are mostly large SFR or small condo/townhouse, there’s really no option for something who are looking for a modest 1500-2000 sq-ft SFR.

[an]

surveyor, can you elaborate more on this?

I myself am starting to see the beginnings of the housing starts. We are seeing dead projects being bought up and springing back to life. Soon, they will start actually building again, hiring more people.

Do you see anything in the North County coming back to life? To me, the only good deals out there are either from builders or REO. Since new housing stock are mostly large SFR or small condo/townhouse, there’s really no option for something who are looking for a modest 1500-2000 sq-ft SFR.

[Author]

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