The case for gold

[The-Shoveler]

The united States has more than twice as much Gold in both private and gov holding than any country in the world, put all of it together it is less than 1 trillion Dollars currently.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=The-Shoveler]The united States has more than twice as much Gold in both private and gov holding than any country in the world, put all of it together it is less than 1 trillion Dollars currently.[/quote]

right. currently. just multiply that trillion by 5, 50, 195, 500, make the numbers work.

actually, maybe that’s happening now. who’d have guessed that just printing a trillion here and there when your country gets ill could have unexpected effects?

[The-Shoveler]

LOL not likely IMO, but if we did we would just trounce China’s net worth by say a factor of 20 or something like that so maybe that would be good for the usa.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=The-Shoveler]LOL not likely IMO, but if we did we would just trounce China’s net worth by say a factor of 20 or something like that so maybe that would be good for the usa.[/quote]

it’s a big world and we are now perceived as dumbassses. Other countries can mvoe to make alternatives. bitcoin maybe be just the beginning. digital gold backed chinese currency? why not? do you really have any faith in the ability fo the us dollar to retain value over the next 20 years or to be the world’s reserve currency in 2050? I’d bet, no, no it will not. we are too dumb to be trusted much longer.

The only sure bet is that 1 dollar in 2040 is going to be worth a small fraction of a dollar today.

LOL

[The-Shoveler]

But what if it was backed by Gold, then it would not Matter LOL. we could just be super rich dumb asses

Bits in the air, anyone knows how to do that nowadays.

[scaredyclassic]

question; will physical gold and silver diverge from paper god/silver price?

silver will hit 30$ tonight.

[The-Shoveler]

I was listening to a podcast about just that today,
Dealers want to buy spot, but sell with a 20% (sometimes 30%) premium.

If you can sell private party maybe you could get some of that.

The Guy on podcast was recommending some type of Physical holding type of big banking outfit, IMO you may as well just buy an ETF if not able to hold in your hand LOL.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=The-Shoveler]I was listening to a podcast about just that today,
Dealers want to buy spot, but sell with a 20% (sometimes 30%) premium.

If you can sell private party maybe you could get some of that.

The Guy on podcast was recommending some type of Physical holding type of big banking outfit, IMO you may as well just buy an ETF if not able to hold in your hand LOL.[/quote]

https://sdbullion.com/blog/bullion-direct-owner-faces-50-year-prison-sentence

yep. trust no one. this asshole’s still out after getting convicted witha 10 y sentence. He ran a site sellign metals, “stored” them for you…stole i think 20 million?

[gzz]

Scaredy good guess overnight high was 29.9.

The gap between the physical and paper price already happened. Back in March silver was as low as 14 on the electronic markets, but at least $5 more in physical markets. This gap has declined but still exists.

[The-Shoveler]

Dollar making a comeback today,
Some analysts are saying Gold overvalued here.

IMO Its not really possible to put a hard number on gold as it has not much real piratical value so it is whatever anyone is willing to pay IMO.

Silver has piratical Value IMO but that may actually work against it in terms of how high it can go (and how long it can stay there for any length of time).

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Dollar making a comeback today,
Some analysts are saying Gold overvalued here.

IMO Its not really possible to put a hard number on gold as it has not much real piratical value so it is whatever anyone is willing to pay IMO.

Silver has piratical Value IMO but that may actually work against it in terms of how high it can go (and how long it can stay there for any length of time).[/quote]

The question is, overvalued compared to what?

Tesla?
Cash in bank?
Nasdaq?
Silver?
Bonds?

You gotta put money somewhere. To say something is overvalued requires a specific thing to measure against. so, overvalued against what?

It also requires a time frame. Overavalued against that asset today, or 3 years hence, or 10?

In a world of asset inflation, why is gold not part of that club of assets that can double or triple for no real reason?

Gold is almost like a schoolmarmish scold, a lecturer of limits, of the silliness of so many business ventures and the hubris of great leaders and nations and central banks. we want it not to
exist, because it’s so heavy, slow, incapable of being doubled and redoubled at a moment’s notice. it just is.

but if its just a pretty, useless trinket, why do countries clutter their bank reserves with shitloads of it? It is not a useless trinket.

If anything is true, it is a store of value. how reliable a store is up for question, but it is not a trinket.

I dont know. But it is funny how much trust we have in bits of paper and promises, including gold etfs, and how little faith we in general have for the universal money that will survive the downfall of every current nation on earth.

Personally, the risk of holding a hard asset to me seems greater than the risk of holding paper promises. so i am not contrarian in terms of being a guns, gold and MREs type person.

I believe in the SEC. I believe in financial markets. I believe in vanguard.

And I like having most of my retirement money in the stock market, cause, like, when you live in a society, you’re kind of forced to live within the normal strictures of it all. you cant fight the fed, as they say. the market is the main game in town.

But in times of uncertainty, what is that value of an asset that will always exist and always have value, independent of any nation or its debts or prospects? with extra cash sitting around, what does one do?

And isnt the lesson of the times not to sell when an asset is merely overvalued, but when its in an absurd bubble, given the money sloshing about the system?

I may have no perspectives, but stocks seem like a silly bubble, with no end in sight, and gold seems about fair value.

[gzz]

Ordered my first 40 franc gold coin from a French coin dealer about 12 days ago. It was the last one I needed for a complete set of every ruler and republican government from 1800 to the end of gold currency. All the others are 20 francs.

Most of the rest are from ebay, but the prices on the last and rarest one was just too high on ebay. I figured it might be my last chance to buy under $1900.

There’s still more to buy, as I’d like a French Tunisia 20 Francs, Austrian and Hungarian 20 Florins, and a Spanish 25 Peseta, which are all exactly the same size under the Latin Monetary Union. I already have similar but not identical sized gold coins from England, Holland, and the USA.

The cheapest of my 20 Francs was 8% below spot when gold was at $1200 using a combination of ebay promos and a cash back credit card. I think they are some of the best gold coins to have for investment, as a few of them can be found for no premium above spot and they are incredibly hard to counterfeit due to their small 0.1867 oz size and very elaborate design. Easy to buy and sell too, as a $380 coin is just more liquid than a $2100 1oz bar.

The two most common of the series is the French Rooster 20F and the Swiss Helvetia 20F which was still being made into the 1950s. Unfortunately you can’t find them at melt price, but when the market normalizes they’ll probably go back there.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=gzz]Ordered my first 40 franc gold coin from a French coin dealer about 12 days ago. It was the last one I needed for a complete set of every ruler and republican government from 1800 to the end of gold currency. All the others are 20 francs.

Most of the rest are from ebay, but the prices on the last and rarest one was just too high on ebay. I figured it might be my last chance to buy under $1900.

There’s still more to buy, as I’d like a French Tunisia 20 Francs, Austrian and Hungarian 20 Florins, and a Spanish 25 Peseta, which are all exactly the same size under the Latin Monetary Union. I already have similar but not identical sized gold coins from England, Holland, and the USA.

The cheapest of my 20 Francs was 8% below spot when gold was at $1200 using a combination of ebay promos and a cash back credit card. I think they are some of the best gold coins to have for investment, as a few of them can be found for no premium above spot and they are incredibly hard to counterfeit due to their small 0.1867 oz size and very elaborate design. Easy to buy and sell too, as a $380 coin is just more liquid than a $2100 1oz bar.

The two most common of the series is the French Rooster 20F and the Swiss Helvetia 20F which was still being made into the 1950s. Unfortunately you can’t find them at melt price, but when the market normalizes they’ll probably go back there.[/quote]

Good strategy. I like the low premium idea. It makes sense.I have been going with GLDM lately. But if youre going to hold 20 years, the mgt fee is a killer.

Ive seen the tiny coins. So tiny. .25 oz .1 oz. So tiny.

Watched INDIAN MATCHMAKING last night till 2 a.m. fun. Those indians man, they will need at least some gold to marry

[scaredyclassic]

Largeish decline this morning.

Im not a charts person, at all, generally believe its worthless but the gold chart is interesting imo if viewed over 40 years

the big moves for gold occur very very rarely .
1980ish

2010ish

Now.

https://goldprice.org/goldprice.org

Where does it settle after the volatility? Thats the unknowable question?

If you think its over 2k now might be a good time to make a move?

The trick isnt usually to guess the top. Its to guess the bottom.

Id say low 2319-2475, in 5.1 years, high of 3700, within next 24 m

[gzz]

Ouch! QCOM completely won its antitrust appeal today. Big win for local RE, makes me feel better.

[Author]

Posts