Can you feel the shift?

[Rt.66]

[[quote=temeculaguy]Come on Rt.66, take on my fundamentals, take on my data, my math,my examples, something other than plattitudes like “tsuinami is coming,” “the banks are all in a conspiracy,” what else you got, that stuff is tired.[/quote]

Opinions are like something everyone has. From what I’ve read your data is that on your street there are fewer REOs and your friends, neighbors and relatives are buying the foreclosures?

How about some real news and figures from real sources.

http://hotpads.com/search/foreclosure#lat=33.49387988861094&lon=-117.14790344238281&zoom=20&topListingZoom=12&listingTypes=foreclosure&pricingFrequency=once&loan=30,0.0525,0&visible=new,viewed,favorite

Here’s my favorite Temecula Foreclosure search result. I’m sure you have more accurate figures though. You might want to sit down:
http://www.bargain.com/homes/search-results.aspx?zip=92589&city=temecula&state=CA&type=Foreclosure&SearchResultType=cs

Here’s something that’s not exactly shouting “market bottom”:

———————-
In March, housing prices accelerated on the downside, indicating bigger adjustments dead ahead. Trend lines are steeper now than ever before — nearly perpendicular. Housing prices are not falling; they’re crashing and crashing hard.

Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, notices of default (NOD) have spiked to an all-time high. These notices will turn into foreclosures in four to five months’ time, creating another cascade of foreclosures. Market analysts predict there will be 5 million more foreclosures between now and 2011. It’s a disaster bigger than Katrina.

Soaring unemployment and rising foreclosures ensure that hundreds of banks and financial institutions will be forced into bankruptcy. Forty percent of delinquent homeowners have already vacated their homes. There’s nothing Obama can do to make them stay. Worse still, only 30 percent of foreclosures have been relisted for sale, suggesting more hanky-panky at the banks. Where have the houses gone? Have they simply vanished?

600,000 “disappeared homes?”

Here’s am excerpt from the San Francisco Chronicle explaining the mystery: “Lenders nationwide are sitting on hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes that they have not resold or listed for sale, according to numerous data sources. And foreclosures, which banks unload at fire-sale prices, are a major factor driving home values down.
———————-

Here’s a nice chart from the San Fran Chron article and another professional opinion on the shadow inventory your neighbors might have missed when they were on their buying spree:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/130399-shadow-inventory-not-at-the-housing-bottom-yet
——————–

Dude, Temecula is not isolated from this shit storm, its ground ZERO!

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[temeculaguy]

That hotpads link is just realty trac fed data, it’s the same font, same info, same pics, they just cull data from realty trac. Yahoo does the same thing, check their foreclosures and it will look just the same and be just as inaccurate.

The bargains link is worse. I checked five props that I have knowledge of, all five are wrong.

I wont dispute the San Francisco article, I don’t disagree with your overall sentiment and I certainly agree that Temecula is ground zero. I’ve said for years it was the epicenter, I coined the “pain train” phrase/theory because of it. My argument is that because it was the epicenter is reason I’m calling bottom for this town and this town only. Because rent positive rentals appeared first, because prices are below construction cost, because new construction has stopped, because affordability has returned with a vengence, because it is the 3rd hottest market in the nation (according to forbes), because inventory is falling and has been for a few months, because it was so bad the last year or two that many of the homes have already changed hands and there just isn’t enough powder left in the cannon.

I understand that you are reading some websites and think it’s going to go to hell in a handbasket, but my positiopn is that it already did, the pain train came through and is now working it’s way through San Diego, hopefully for the piggies the gov’t wont derail it before it gets to their beloved carmel valley.

Youi sources for specific listings and foreclosures are not good sources, many realtors on these boards can confirm that and other data junkies will tell you that those sources are weak, at best.

The only way to decide this argument is time, so let’s revisit this thread in 3, 4, or 6 months and we will see how far temec goes down from now after the shadow inventory hits. If my tract falls to between $50 and $70 a square ft, you win, you can call me whatever you want, I’ll get a t-shirt that says “chump” and I’ll even look into a personalized license plate bearing the same or similar name. If it holds near the $85 mark that I paid, I win, and all you have to do is is create a thread that says “I should have listend to TG,” Deal?

[Rt.66]

OK so every source shows a shit load of REOs in TV and climbing, but you say every source is wrong because you have personal knowledge and “many realtors on these boards can confirm” this too?

So Realtors can tell me that the Mt. St. Helens of REOs is not real and I should believe them? And not the cold hard, impossible to deny facts? I’ll only believe the realtors it if they throw in a “it’s a great time to buy”.

There are thousands and thousands of REOs in TV right now and climbing. You can argue whether its 2000 or 5000 or the 4000+ RTrac and Hotpads shows; or if the shadow inventory is an additional 2000 or 5000. Either way, even if you go with the low number, even after the pain train made its “first” stop in TV, the numbers right now today are of GD1 proportion and you are calling a bottom?

My sources are excellent sources. They are the industry standard. They are “the” sources. I’m thinking your street and your neighbors and some realtors you know are not as reliable an indicator.

Prices are not below construction costs when you figure in the fast falling value of the lots and building materials. And as for no new construction; go look up on the hills by Red Hawk were the lovely orange groves used to be.
You will find whole neighborhoods abandoned mid-build. Yep, they bulldozed orange groves, divided up lots, put in utes, paved it over with streets and cul-de-sacs, put the first run of block wall in and then just left.

What’s the cost to build on a foreclosed $10k lot with 2x4s ½ the price they were in 2005 and contractors under bidding each other to get what little work is out there?

This is a sign of an epic over-building, housing cratering disaster, not a “bottom”.

The reason they are not building is because there are more homes now than there are people who need or can buy them, especially in places like TV which are out and away from job centers. However, if houses do start to tick back up in 10-20 years they already have infrastructure ready to go in TV to assure that supply keeps pricing low.

3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not.

[Rt.66]

OK so every source shows a shit load of REOs in TV and climbing, but you say every source is wrong because you have personal knowledge and “many realtors on these boards can confirm” this too?

So Realtors can tell me that the Mt. St. Helens of REOs is not real and I should believe them? And not the cold hard, impossible to deny facts? I’ll only believe the realtors it if they throw in a “it’s a great time to buy”.

There are thousands and thousands of REOs in TV right now and climbing. You can argue whether its 2000 or 5000 or the 4000+ RTrac and Hotpads shows; or if the shadow inventory is an additional 2000 or 5000. Either way, even if you go with the low number, even after the pain train made its “first” stop in TV, the numbers right now today are of GD1 proportion and you are calling a bottom?

My sources are excellent sources. They are the industry standard. They are “the” sources. I’m thinking your street and your neighbors and some realtors you know are not as reliable an indicator.

Prices are not below construction costs when you figure in the fast falling value of the lots and building materials. And as for no new construction; go look up on the hills by Red Hawk were the lovely orange groves used to be.
You will find whole neighborhoods abandoned mid-build. Yep, they bulldozed orange groves, divided up lots, put in utes, paved it over with streets and cul-de-sacs, put the first run of block wall in and then just left.

What’s the cost to build on a foreclosed $10k lot with 2x4s ½ the price they were in 2005 and contractors under bidding each other to get what little work is out there?

This is a sign of an epic over-building, housing cratering disaster, not a “bottom”.

The reason they are not building is because there are more homes now than there are people who need or can buy them, especially in places like TV which are out and away from job centers. However, if houses do start to tick back up in 10-20 years they already have infrastructure ready to go in TV to assure that supply keeps pricing low.

3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not.

[Rt.66]

OK so every source shows a shit load of REOs in TV and climbing, but you say every source is wrong because you have personal knowledge and “many realtors on these boards can confirm” this too?

So Realtors can tell me that the Mt. St. Helens of REOs is not real and I should believe them? And not the cold hard, impossible to deny facts? I’ll only believe the realtors it if they throw in a “it’s a great time to buy”.

There are thousands and thousands of REOs in TV right now and climbing. You can argue whether its 2000 or 5000 or the 4000+ RTrac and Hotpads shows; or if the shadow inventory is an additional 2000 or 5000. Either way, even if you go with the low number, even after the pain train made its “first” stop in TV, the numbers right now today are of GD1 proportion and you are calling a bottom?

My sources are excellent sources. They are the industry standard. They are “the” sources. I’m thinking your street and your neighbors and some realtors you know are not as reliable an indicator.

Prices are not below construction costs when you figure in the fast falling value of the lots and building materials. And as for no new construction; go look up on the hills by Red Hawk were the lovely orange groves used to be.
You will find whole neighborhoods abandoned mid-build. Yep, they bulldozed orange groves, divided up lots, put in utes, paved it over with streets and cul-de-sacs, put the first run of block wall in and then just left.

What’s the cost to build on a foreclosed $10k lot with 2x4s ½ the price they were in 2005 and contractors under bidding each other to get what little work is out there?

This is a sign of an epic over-building, housing cratering disaster, not a “bottom”.

The reason they are not building is because there are more homes now than there are people who need or can buy them, especially in places like TV which are out and away from job centers. However, if houses do start to tick back up in 10-20 years they already have infrastructure ready to go in TV to assure that supply keeps pricing low.

3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not.

[Rt.66]

OK so every source shows a shit load of REOs in TV and climbing, but you say every source is wrong because you have personal knowledge and “many realtors on these boards can confirm” this too?

So Realtors can tell me that the Mt. St. Helens of REOs is not real and I should believe them? And not the cold hard, impossible to deny facts? I’ll only believe the realtors it if they throw in a “it’s a great time to buy”.

There are thousands and thousands of REOs in TV right now and climbing. You can argue whether its 2000 or 5000 or the 4000+ RTrac and Hotpads shows; or if the shadow inventory is an additional 2000 or 5000. Either way, even if you go with the low number, even after the pain train made its “first” stop in TV, the numbers right now today are of GD1 proportion and you are calling a bottom?

My sources are excellent sources. They are the industry standard. They are “the” sources. I’m thinking your street and your neighbors and some realtors you know are not as reliable an indicator.

Prices are not below construction costs when you figure in the fast falling value of the lots and building materials. And as for no new construction; go look up on the hills by Red Hawk were the lovely orange groves used to be.
You will find whole neighborhoods abandoned mid-build. Yep, they bulldozed orange groves, divided up lots, put in utes, paved it over with streets and cul-de-sacs, put the first run of block wall in and then just left.

What’s the cost to build on a foreclosed $10k lot with 2x4s ½ the price they were in 2005 and contractors under bidding each other to get what little work is out there?

This is a sign of an epic over-building, housing cratering disaster, not a “bottom”.

The reason they are not building is because there are more homes now than there are people who need or can buy them, especially in places like TV which are out and away from job centers. However, if houses do start to tick back up in 10-20 years they already have infrastructure ready to go in TV to assure that supply keeps pricing low.

3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not.

[Rt.66]

OK so every source shows a shit load of REOs in TV and climbing, but you say every source is wrong because you have personal knowledge and “many realtors on these boards can confirm” this too?

So Realtors can tell me that the Mt. St. Helens of REOs is not real and I should believe them? And not the cold hard, impossible to deny facts? I’ll only believe the realtors it if they throw in a “it’s a great time to buy”.

There are thousands and thousands of REOs in TV right now and climbing. You can argue whether its 2000 or 5000 or the 4000+ RTrac and Hotpads shows; or if the shadow inventory is an additional 2000 or 5000. Either way, even if you go with the low number, even after the pain train made its “first” stop in TV, the numbers right now today are of GD1 proportion and you are calling a bottom?

My sources are excellent sources. They are the industry standard. They are “the” sources. I’m thinking your street and your neighbors and some realtors you know are not as reliable an indicator.

Prices are not below construction costs when you figure in the fast falling value of the lots and building materials. And as for no new construction; go look up on the hills by Red Hawk were the lovely orange groves used to be.
You will find whole neighborhoods abandoned mid-build. Yep, they bulldozed orange groves, divided up lots, put in utes, paved it over with streets and cul-de-sacs, put the first run of block wall in and then just left.

What’s the cost to build on a foreclosed $10k lot with 2x4s ½ the price they were in 2005 and contractors under bidding each other to get what little work is out there?

This is a sign of an epic over-building, housing cratering disaster, not a “bottom”.

The reason they are not building is because there are more homes now than there are people who need or can buy them, especially in places like TV which are out and away from job centers. However, if houses do start to tick back up in 10-20 years they already have infrastructure ready to go in TV to assure that supply keeps pricing low.

3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Gee TG,

Could have maybe picked a little better time for the bottom call with this Swine Flu stuff happening just now, If it gets much worse that could throw a wrench in the machinery everything else being equal.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Gee TG,

Could have maybe picked a little better time for the bottom call with this Swine Flu stuff happening just now, If it gets much worse that could throw a wrench in the machinery everything else being equal.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Gee TG,

Could have maybe picked a little better time for the bottom call with this Swine Flu stuff happening just now, If it gets much worse that could throw a wrench in the machinery everything else being equal.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Gee TG,

Could have maybe picked a little better time for the bottom call with this Swine Flu stuff happening just now, If it gets much worse that could throw a wrench in the machinery everything else being equal.

[Author]

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