As a bearish stock market investor during most of 1999, I moved 100% into cash in August 1999. I was surprised–to say the least–when the market tracked directly upward right through the Y2K non-event. By February, no one was talking about “bubbles” anymore and I got back into the market. A quick read of news and editorials from those early months of 2000 shows a mix of opinions, but mostly a sort of defensive optimism: http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan00arc.htm
It seems to me that the “chatter” surrounding the housing bubble peaked this fall, and since then it has been eerily quiet–exactly like early 2000. There are a few signals which spawn opinion articles, but no solid evidence to swing defectors from one side to another. It is precisely at these times, like a crystal-clear blue September morning, when no one is paying attention, that big things happen. And I for one am scared.
The bubble has grown to size where it is hard to imagine the impact crater not decimating anything nearby—jobs, newly-minted neighborhoods, retirements, and the rest of the economy. I am shelving my landed-poor ideals that perhaps I could afford a depreciated home. Housing would need to drop 50% on the coasts to become reasonable again, and this sort of impact on the economy is unimaginable. I fear for the future.
I had signed up for a few new housing developments in San Diego area about a year ago and I never heard from them, not an email, a brochure, nothing.
Guess what? Today I’m driving and they call me on my cell phone and offer me all these incentives if I buy one of their latest developments. Before they used to be all sold out, now they have one of the houses complete and ready to move in and 3 more that I could add my custom finsihing touches on. If I refer a friend, they will pay me $4,500 in cash!! Wow, what a change in attitude.
Here is my favorite prediction from Business Week for the Year 2000:
.
