Bear Creek and De Luz…

[admin]

I’ll repost this, in case anyone wants to reply. It seems the other thread I put it on the tail end died down. Here goes:

Bunny, Riley sounds like “The Man”! I’ll tell the mice to get ready. 🙂

To the rest of my Temecula neighbors, what do you guys know about Bear Creek and De Luz? I know that you guys would know this, but Bear Creek is where that Jack Nicholaus (sp?) golf course is. I have associates that worked with me while doing my internship that live in both areas. I’ve never been to either area, all I know is that both psychologists (one man, the other woman) have nice, big homes in those places.

I wonder will these areas come down like the rest of temecula/murrieta and are they oh so nice to live in. From the pics I’ve seen of Bear Creek, it looks wonderful. So, are these places worth the money it costs to live there? Will there be any new construction in either area?

I’m not sure I could even get into these areas given my price point, but opinions on both areas still welcome.

[golfproz]

I’m not from down south but I’ve played Bear Creek quite a few times. It’s a great course and has many beautiful homes around it. It’s been there for while, I think it opened in 1983. Most of the homes around the course have been there a while. There are a few newer homes but the course it pretty well built out now. Theres acres of empty land to the north and in the hills to the west but around the actual course its built out. You will pay a hefty premium to live within the gates. Most of those homes are up in the 1 million plus area. I did find this one though for $700K, right on the 11th tee. Price wise this looks like a good deal for Bear Creek.

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

Just remember when looking at homes on golf courses that you want to stay away from home on fairways, especially homes on the right side of fairways. Buy behind a tee box or a near the green.

[bearvine]

Best areas in Mur/Tem…from my post in another thread

Nice day in Temecula…Haven’t been on Piggington in a bit, and thought I’d check it out after spending a nice day in Temecula. Before I become bearish about the area, I will start by saying that we had a nice breakfast at South Coast Winery with some decent vino, played Cross Creek (this course was supposed to be the centerpiece of a housing development on the De Luz side that got squashed, and now remains a gem of a golf course undiscovered by most) and then hit the high limit at Pechanga. Again, there are not many places you can do this, and it is a great benefit of living there. Which I do miss to a degree.

Didn’t have time to visit McMillin in Morgan Hill, or Gallery. No need to get their hopes up that we might buy some homes as “investors” which we’ve been pitched to do by EVERY builder in the area for the last year.

Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.

So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

For a rundown of such areas from North to South:

Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.

La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.

Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.

Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.

Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.

Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.

DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.

Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.

That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.

On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.

In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.

I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.

The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.

[Anonymous]

bearvine, wow! Thanks for the info. on these areas.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there.

Someone finally agrees with me on how long this thing can go. 🙂 If Morgan Hill gets to $75 sq, that means Murrieta will easily hit $65. Those are the prices I want to buy at.

[Anonymous]

bearvine, wow! Thanks for the info. on these areas.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there.

Someone finally agrees with me on how long this thing can go. 🙂 If Morgan Hill gets to $75 sq, that means Murrieta will easily hit $65. Those are the prices I want to buy at.

[Anonymous]

bearvine, wow! Thanks for the info. on these areas.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there.

Someone finally agrees with me on how long this thing can go. 🙂 If Morgan Hill gets to $75 sq, that means Murrieta will easily hit $65. Those are the prices I want to buy at.

[Anonymous]

bearvine, wow! Thanks for the info. on these areas.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there.

Someone finally agrees with me on how long this thing can go. 🙂 If Morgan Hill gets to $75 sq, that means Murrieta will easily hit $65. Those are the prices I want to buy at.

[Anonymous]

bearvine, wow! Thanks for the info. on these areas.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there.

Someone finally agrees with me on how long this thing can go. 🙂 If Morgan Hill gets to $75 sq, that means Murrieta will easily hit $65. Those are the prices I want to buy at.

[temeculaguy]

Bear, clearly your best post to date, bravo. I can offer no argument to any of your comments, accurate as anything I’ve ever read on the area.

[temeculaguy]

Bear, clearly your best post to date, bravo. I can offer no argument to any of your comments, accurate as anything I’ve ever read on the area.

[temeculaguy]

Bear, clearly your best post to date, bravo. I can offer no argument to any of your comments, accurate as anything I’ve ever read on the area.

[temeculaguy]

Bear, clearly your best post to date, bravo. I can offer no argument to any of your comments, accurate as anything I’ve ever read on the area.

[temeculaguy]

Bear, clearly your best post to date, bravo. I can offer no argument to any of your comments, accurate as anything I’ve ever read on the area.

[Anonymous]

You know, I didn’t even know about La Cresta. Actually, I think La Cresta is the area one of my colleagues bought in instead of Bear Creek-though I do know someone who bought in Bear Creek before the run-up started.

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=T07153549&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=mwg8m815&source=MRMLS

Look at this one, guys. It’s to die for! Only thing, you’d probably kill yourself taking care of it.

🙂

[Bunny Meadows]

Marion, I checked out the La Cresta place on redfin…it says the original sale was for $165K in 2003??? can that be possible?

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1228783

I wonder if that price only refers to the land – and not the house? Otherwise, that seller has got a LOT of equity.

I think its’ gonna be interesting to see what happens with the many $1 mil+ properites on the market…there simply cant be that many would-be buyers out there these days….

Marion, you sound cool btw! 🙂

[bearvine]

Redfin and Zillow’s sale histories aren’t always accurate. Even for just the lot that would’ve been too low in 2003. That may have been a new loan.

If they bought in 2003 they probably paid somewhere between 700k to 1m, and then add on their improvements.

Just look at how long La Cresta listings over $1m have been on the market. NO ONE is interested in these. Better off buying a home in Bear Creek for 700k to live in, and two in Redhawk for $300k each to rent out. That’s if you really had to spend the money, say for 1031 reasons.

About Bear Creek, this home is on the wrong side of Bear Creek near the empty home sites, and was part of the same development:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

He just dropped $100k to $699k, I am sure his neighbor here asking $979 in the same court is really happy about that.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1066541

Again, they are all into the homes for between 500-600k before hardscape, so there’s room for decline.

Here’s a 2br in Bear Creek back to 2003 pricing at 299k
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1238662

[bearvine]

Even if I had to do a 1031 exchange, I still might not buy, and just take the tax hit to have liquidity instead.

That condo above in Bear Creek for $299k, I might pay $200.

[bearvine]

Even if I had to do a 1031 exchange, I still might not buy, and just take the tax hit to have liquidity instead.

That condo above in Bear Creek for $299k, I might pay $200.

[bearvine]

Even if I had to do a 1031 exchange, I still might not buy, and just take the tax hit to have liquidity instead.

That condo above in Bear Creek for $299k, I might pay $200.

[bearvine]

Even if I had to do a 1031 exchange, I still might not buy, and just take the tax hit to have liquidity instead.

That condo above in Bear Creek for $299k, I might pay $200.

[bearvine]

Even if I had to do a 1031 exchange, I still might not buy, and just take the tax hit to have liquidity instead.

That condo above in Bear Creek for $299k, I might pay $200.

[temeculaguy]

In the early or mid 1990’s I looked at the condo’s/duplexes at bear creek (actually some were sfr’s), just like your third link, but I couldn’t get over the lack of fencing. I remember they were very nice and priced about 150k at the bottom of the last cycle but there was no back fence, the back of the house just opened up to the golf course. I took one look at that and thought “this is beautiful, but the dog won’t last a week and even if I figured out where to put the jacuzzi how am I going to get in and out of it naked?”

[temeculaguy]

In the early or mid 1990’s I looked at the condo’s/duplexes at bear creek (actually some were sfr’s), just like your third link, but I couldn’t get over the lack of fencing. I remember they were very nice and priced about 150k at the bottom of the last cycle but there was no back fence, the back of the house just opened up to the golf course. I took one look at that and thought “this is beautiful, but the dog won’t last a week and even if I figured out where to put the jacuzzi how am I going to get in and out of it naked?”

[temeculaguy]

In the early or mid 1990’s I looked at the condo’s/duplexes at bear creek (actually some were sfr’s), just like your third link, but I couldn’t get over the lack of fencing. I remember they were very nice and priced about 150k at the bottom of the last cycle but there was no back fence, the back of the house just opened up to the golf course. I took one look at that and thought “this is beautiful, but the dog won’t last a week and even if I figured out where to put the jacuzzi how am I going to get in and out of it naked?”

[temeculaguy]

In the early or mid 1990’s I looked at the condo’s/duplexes at bear creek (actually some were sfr’s), just like your third link, but I couldn’t get over the lack of fencing. I remember they were very nice and priced about 150k at the bottom of the last cycle but there was no back fence, the back of the house just opened up to the golf course. I took one look at that and thought “this is beautiful, but the dog won’t last a week and even if I figured out where to put the jacuzzi how am I going to get in and out of it naked?”

[temeculaguy]

In the early or mid 1990’s I looked at the condo’s/duplexes at bear creek (actually some were sfr’s), just like your third link, but I couldn’t get over the lack of fencing. I remember they were very nice and priced about 150k at the bottom of the last cycle but there was no back fence, the back of the house just opened up to the golf course. I took one look at that and thought “this is beautiful, but the dog won’t last a week and even if I figured out where to put the jacuzzi how am I going to get in and out of it naked?”

[bearvine]

Redfin and Zillow’s sale histories aren’t always accurate. Even for just the lot that would’ve been too low in 2003. That may have been a new loan.

If they bought in 2003 they probably paid somewhere between 700k to 1m, and then add on their improvements.

Just look at how long La Cresta listings over $1m have been on the market. NO ONE is interested in these. Better off buying a home in Bear Creek for 700k to live in, and two in Redhawk for $300k each to rent out. That’s if you really had to spend the money, say for 1031 reasons.

About Bear Creek, this home is on the wrong side of Bear Creek near the empty home sites, and was part of the same development:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

He just dropped $100k to $699k, I am sure his neighbor here asking $979 in the same court is really happy about that.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1066541

Again, they are all into the homes for between 500-600k before hardscape, so there’s room for decline.

Here’s a 2br in Bear Creek back to 2003 pricing at 299k
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1238662

[bearvine]

Redfin and Zillow’s sale histories aren’t always accurate. Even for just the lot that would’ve been too low in 2003. That may have been a new loan.

If they bought in 2003 they probably paid somewhere between 700k to 1m, and then add on their improvements.

Just look at how long La Cresta listings over $1m have been on the market. NO ONE is interested in these. Better off buying a home in Bear Creek for 700k to live in, and two in Redhawk for $300k each to rent out. That’s if you really had to spend the money, say for 1031 reasons.

About Bear Creek, this home is on the wrong side of Bear Creek near the empty home sites, and was part of the same development:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

He just dropped $100k to $699k, I am sure his neighbor here asking $979 in the same court is really happy about that.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1066541

Again, they are all into the homes for between 500-600k before hardscape, so there’s room for decline.

Here’s a 2br in Bear Creek back to 2003 pricing at 299k
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1238662

[bearvine]

Redfin and Zillow’s sale histories aren’t always accurate. Even for just the lot that would’ve been too low in 2003. That may have been a new loan.

If they bought in 2003 they probably paid somewhere between 700k to 1m, and then add on their improvements.

Just look at how long La Cresta listings over $1m have been on the market. NO ONE is interested in these. Better off buying a home in Bear Creek for 700k to live in, and two in Redhawk for $300k each to rent out. That’s if you really had to spend the money, say for 1031 reasons.

About Bear Creek, this home is on the wrong side of Bear Creek near the empty home sites, and was part of the same development:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

He just dropped $100k to $699k, I am sure his neighbor here asking $979 in the same court is really happy about that.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1066541

Again, they are all into the homes for between 500-600k before hardscape, so there’s room for decline.

Here’s a 2br in Bear Creek back to 2003 pricing at 299k
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1238662

[bearvine]

Redfin and Zillow’s sale histories aren’t always accurate. Even for just the lot that would’ve been too low in 2003. That may have been a new loan.

If they bought in 2003 they probably paid somewhere between 700k to 1m, and then add on their improvements.

Just look at how long La Cresta listings over $1m have been on the market. NO ONE is interested in these. Better off buying a home in Bear Creek for 700k to live in, and two in Redhawk for $300k each to rent out. That’s if you really had to spend the money, say for 1031 reasons.

About Bear Creek, this home is on the wrong side of Bear Creek near the empty home sites, and was part of the same development:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

He just dropped $100k to $699k, I am sure his neighbor here asking $979 in the same court is really happy about that.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1066541

Again, they are all into the homes for between 500-600k before hardscape, so there’s room for decline.

Here’s a 2br in Bear Creek back to 2003 pricing at 299k
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1238662

[Bunny Meadows]

Marion, I checked out the La Cresta place on redfin…it says the original sale was for $165K in 2003??? can that be possible?

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1228783

I wonder if that price only refers to the land – and not the house? Otherwise, that seller has got a LOT of equity.

I think its’ gonna be interesting to see what happens with the many $1 mil+ properites on the market…there simply cant be that many would-be buyers out there these days….

Marion, you sound cool btw! 🙂

[Bunny Meadows]

Marion, I checked out the La Cresta place on redfin…it says the original sale was for $165K in 2003??? can that be possible?

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1228783

I wonder if that price only refers to the land – and not the house? Otherwise, that seller has got a LOT of equity.

I think its’ gonna be interesting to see what happens with the many $1 mil+ properites on the market…there simply cant be that many would-be buyers out there these days….

Marion, you sound cool btw! 🙂

[Bunny Meadows]

Marion, I checked out the La Cresta place on redfin…it says the original sale was for $165K in 2003??? can that be possible?

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1228783

I wonder if that price only refers to the land – and not the house? Otherwise, that seller has got a LOT of equity.

I think its’ gonna be interesting to see what happens with the many $1 mil+ properites on the market…there simply cant be that many would-be buyers out there these days….

Marion, you sound cool btw! 🙂

[Bunny Meadows]

Marion, I checked out the La Cresta place on redfin…it says the original sale was for $165K in 2003??? can that be possible?

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1228783

I wonder if that price only refers to the land – and not the house? Otherwise, that seller has got a LOT of equity.

I think its’ gonna be interesting to see what happens with the many $1 mil+ properites on the market…there simply cant be that many would-be buyers out there these days….

Marion, you sound cool btw! 🙂

[Anonymous]

You know, I didn’t even know about La Cresta. Actually, I think La Cresta is the area one of my colleagues bought in instead of Bear Creek-though I do know someone who bought in Bear Creek before the run-up started.

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=T07153549&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=mwg8m815&source=MRMLS

Look at this one, guys. It’s to die for! Only thing, you’d probably kill yourself taking care of it.

🙂

[Anonymous]

You know, I didn’t even know about La Cresta. Actually, I think La Cresta is the area one of my colleagues bought in instead of Bear Creek-though I do know someone who bought in Bear Creek before the run-up started.

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=T07153549&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=mwg8m815&source=MRMLS

Look at this one, guys. It’s to die for! Only thing, you’d probably kill yourself taking care of it.

🙂

[Anonymous]

You know, I didn’t even know about La Cresta. Actually, I think La Cresta is the area one of my colleagues bought in instead of Bear Creek-though I do know someone who bought in Bear Creek before the run-up started.

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=T07153549&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=mwg8m815&source=MRMLS

Look at this one, guys. It’s to die for! Only thing, you’d probably kill yourself taking care of it.

🙂

[Anonymous]

You know, I didn’t even know about La Cresta. Actually, I think La Cresta is the area one of my colleagues bought in instead of Bear Creek-though I do know someone who bought in Bear Creek before the run-up started.

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=T07153549&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=mwg8m815&source=MRMLS

Look at this one, guys. It’s to die for! Only thing, you’d probably kill yourself taking care of it.

🙂

[bearvine]

Best areas in Mur/Tem…from my post in another thread

Nice day in Temecula…Haven’t been on Piggington in a bit, and thought I’d check it out after spending a nice day in Temecula. Before I become bearish about the area, I will start by saying that we had a nice breakfast at South Coast Winery with some decent vino, played Cross Creek (this course was supposed to be the centerpiece of a housing development on the De Luz side that got squashed, and now remains a gem of a golf course undiscovered by most) and then hit the high limit at Pechanga. Again, there are not many places you can do this, and it is a great benefit of living there. Which I do miss to a degree.

Didn’t have time to visit McMillin in Morgan Hill, or Gallery. No need to get their hopes up that we might buy some homes as “investors” which we’ve been pitched to do by EVERY builder in the area for the last year.

Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.

So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

For a rundown of such areas from North to South:

Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.

La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.

Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.

Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.

Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.

Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.

DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.

Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.

That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.

On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.

In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.

I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.

The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.

[bearvine]

Best areas in Mur/Tem…from my post in another thread

Nice day in Temecula…Haven’t been on Piggington in a bit, and thought I’d check it out after spending a nice day in Temecula. Before I become bearish about the area, I will start by saying that we had a nice breakfast at South Coast Winery with some decent vino, played Cross Creek (this course was supposed to be the centerpiece of a housing development on the De Luz side that got squashed, and now remains a gem of a golf course undiscovered by most) and then hit the high limit at Pechanga. Again, there are not many places you can do this, and it is a great benefit of living there. Which I do miss to a degree.

Didn’t have time to visit McMillin in Morgan Hill, or Gallery. No need to get their hopes up that we might buy some homes as “investors” which we’ve been pitched to do by EVERY builder in the area for the last year.

Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.

So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

For a rundown of such areas from North to South:

Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.

La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.

Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.

Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.

Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.

Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.

DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.

Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.

That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.

On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.

In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.

I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.

The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.

[bearvine]

Best areas in Mur/Tem…from my post in another thread

Nice day in Temecula…Haven’t been on Piggington in a bit, and thought I’d check it out after spending a nice day in Temecula. Before I become bearish about the area, I will start by saying that we had a nice breakfast at South Coast Winery with some decent vino, played Cross Creek (this course was supposed to be the centerpiece of a housing development on the De Luz side that got squashed, and now remains a gem of a golf course undiscovered by most) and then hit the high limit at Pechanga. Again, there are not many places you can do this, and it is a great benefit of living there. Which I do miss to a degree.

Didn’t have time to visit McMillin in Morgan Hill, or Gallery. No need to get their hopes up that we might buy some homes as “investors” which we’ve been pitched to do by EVERY builder in the area for the last year.

Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.

So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

For a rundown of such areas from North to South:

Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.

La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.

Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.

Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.

Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.

Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.

DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.

Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.

That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.

On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.

In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.

I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.

The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.

[bearvine]

Best areas in Mur/Tem…from my post in another thread

Nice day in Temecula…Haven’t been on Piggington in a bit, and thought I’d check it out after spending a nice day in Temecula. Before I become bearish about the area, I will start by saying that we had a nice breakfast at South Coast Winery with some decent vino, played Cross Creek (this course was supposed to be the centerpiece of a housing development on the De Luz side that got squashed, and now remains a gem of a golf course undiscovered by most) and then hit the high limit at Pechanga. Again, there are not many places you can do this, and it is a great benefit of living there. Which I do miss to a degree.

Didn’t have time to visit McMillin in Morgan Hill, or Gallery. No need to get their hopes up that we might buy some homes as “investors” which we’ve been pitched to do by EVERY builder in the area for the last year.

Changing the name of Hwy 79 to Temecula Parkway was a nice touch, and more places to go on 79 is nice, and good to see the mall expanding.

Still convinced there is gonna be a big hurt coming. I’ll stand by a previous post, $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill, it can get there. 10% drop for 2008 is conservative and misguided. 20% you can count on. As beautiful as Temecula is, it is just to far away, was too reliant on the RE industry as a whole, and the trickle down effect will hit it hard. No need to get into all of this again though, this area has been covered in previous threads, and if you don’t see it you never will until it is to late.

So let’s talk about the higher end areas a bit.
Many of the wealthy in the area who profited on the RE area over the years are obviously quite concerned. We’ve had friends in the area ask us if we would come in and start speculating again. Nope, not yet. All the higher end plans have gone stagnant, and yes the higher end areas will get hit. The higher end areas were reliant on SD, LA, and OC relocates moving into the area, you can’t sell anywhere now, so no more buyers. How does the saying go, the bigger they are, the harder they fall.

For a rundown of such areas from North to South:

Canyon Lake:
Older parts in the gated area have always kept the best properties down, but they still went crazy with the bubble. Even though waterfront is cool, Lake Elsinore as a whole is dragging it down to the depths.

La Cresta (Murietta):
5 acre lots, horse properties, a bit far for many, but a nice area. This area took off with the bubble as OC, SD, and LA folks were able to sell their 2500 sq ft for a mill, and get a 4000sq ft on 5 acres for that same mill. In 2001 we bought a 5 acre lot for 400k and sold for 500k in a matter of months. This area has been struggling with sales for some time, and yes it will drop significantly. That same 5 acre lot and house that sold for a mill in 01, might’ve sold for 2 and a change at peak, and in the late 90’s could’ve been had for 600k tops. Lot’s of room to fall.

Bear Creek:
Love this area. Was a $100,000 away from living there. I know they wished they sold it to me now. Gated with the only private course and country club in the area, this is where many of the elite and power brokers of the area live. Room to fall? oh yeah. On the east side of Bear Creek, a developer went bad years ago, and those half completed homes still sit there, for years now in the same state, right next to the people that did move in. A Resale in that part can be had cheap as it is the least desirable area within Bear Creek. You have townhomes in the area that sold for 400k in 00 and 01, that were resold at a mill during peak, and some misguided sellers still asf 8-900 for. They are about 3000 sq ft and are nice. There are also smaller condos, and then there are the semi customs and customs.

Meadoview:
Not quite as nice as the above, but it does have some nice homes, is in the middle of Temecula, wide variety to choose from. This area was built up in the 80’s and 90’s when Temecula was dirt roads, so you can imagine what the original costs were, and why this area has so much room for depreciation. Beware the need to replace your septic tank in this area, that has been an issue for a number of people there. About a year ago, we went and lowballed about a dozen homes, all said no way, and everyone would sell today at 10-20% less than I offered.

Area between Meadoview and Nicholas (can’t remember the name of it for the life of me):
Was supposed to be semi custom on 1 acre lots. DEAD.

Wine Country:
This is a big area, and is a matter of lifestyle, what you are looking for etc. Rancon was going to build the area of all areas near the entrance of WC, to coincide with 3 new wineries. As far as the wineries go, I believe that is full steam ahead, but have heard nothing of the res project. It is an ambitious plan, and this was my target for permanent residence. If the same plan is in place, I would look forward to still doing it now at a better price. But they may not have enough buyers regardless. The farther out you go, the older the home, the farther the prices will drop. Not to mention all the spec builders stuck with inventory, they may be happy with 50 cents on the dollar.

DeLuz/Rennaisance Estates
They would love to sell to you. Some homes here are super cool as on a clear day you can see the Pacific to one side, and Temecula to the other. Hard to get to.

Rancho Santiago/Santiago Estates:
Right in town, some nice places. Older the home, farther it will drop. Beware bad septic, and stay away from anything near the proposed hospital. Those properties are already on the cheap, and they’ve been trying to sell for a couple of years with no shot. Coincidentally, these residents (NIMBY) are one reason why the hospital hasn’t broken ground.

That’s something that hasn’t been touched as a pro con, is the inadequate hospital facilities in the area. That hospital on 79 is needed in the worst way, but thanks to politics don’t hold your breath for the opening.

On that note, of all these areas one has to think about emergency services. If you have a heart attack in Bear Creek, Meadowview, Rancho Santiago, chances are you’ll be ok. De Luz, Wine Country outskirts, La Cresta, it might take awhile for the ambulance to get there.

In regards to the higher education center which would’ve been a coup for Temecula that was to be built towards Zevo, that’s quashed and is a dead project.

I still think it’s a great area, but if you want to be safe buying, pay no more that 2001 prices. And I still think there is room to fall from there.

The global economy and recession will be worse than you think. The farther away from an economic center, the worse it will be.

[golfproz]

I’m not from down south but I’ve played Bear Creek quite a few times. It’s a great course and has many beautiful homes around it. It’s been there for while, I think it opened in 1983. Most of the homes around the course have been there a while. There are a few newer homes but the course it pretty well built out now. Theres acres of empty land to the north and in the hills to the west but around the actual course its built out. You will pay a hefty premium to live within the gates. Most of those homes are up in the 1 million plus area. I did find this one though for $700K, right on the 11th tee. Price wise this looks like a good deal for Bear Creek.

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

Just remember when looking at homes on golf courses that you want to stay away from home on fairways, especially homes on the right side of fairways. Buy behind a tee box or a near the green.

[golfproz]

I’m not from down south but I’ve played Bear Creek quite a few times. It’s a great course and has many beautiful homes around it. It’s been there for while, I think it opened in 1983. Most of the homes around the course have been there a while. There are a few newer homes but the course it pretty well built out now. Theres acres of empty land to the north and in the hills to the west but around the actual course its built out. You will pay a hefty premium to live within the gates. Most of those homes are up in the 1 million plus area. I did find this one though for $700K, right on the 11th tee. Price wise this looks like a good deal for Bear Creek.

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

Just remember when looking at homes on golf courses that you want to stay away from home on fairways, especially homes on the right side of fairways. Buy behind a tee box or a near the green.

[golfproz]

I’m not from down south but I’ve played Bear Creek quite a few times. It’s a great course and has many beautiful homes around it. It’s been there for while, I think it opened in 1983. Most of the homes around the course have been there a while. There are a few newer homes but the course it pretty well built out now. Theres acres of empty land to the north and in the hills to the west but around the actual course its built out. You will pay a hefty premium to live within the gates. Most of those homes are up in the 1 million plus area. I did find this one though for $700K, right on the 11th tee. Price wise this looks like a good deal for Bear Creek.

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

Just remember when looking at homes on golf courses that you want to stay away from home on fairways, especially homes on the right side of fairways. Buy behind a tee box or a near the green.

[golfproz]

I’m not from down south but I’ve played Bear Creek quite a few times. It’s a great course and has many beautiful homes around it. It’s been there for while, I think it opened in 1983. Most of the homes around the course have been there a while. There are a few newer homes but the course it pretty well built out now. Theres acres of empty land to the north and in the hills to the west but around the actual course its built out. You will pay a hefty premium to live within the gates. Most of those homes are up in the 1 million plus area. I did find this one though for $700K, right on the 11th tee. Price wise this looks like a good deal for Bear Creek.

http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1164396

Just remember when looking at homes on golf courses that you want to stay away from home on fairways, especially homes on the right side of fairways. Buy behind a tee box or a near the green.

[Author]

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