Avaron at Del Sur Slashes Prices

[temeculaguy]

You are probably right AN, either that or I’ll just switch to porn and then go to bed, check the score tomorrow. I usually stick it out to see the flop, but not this time, I’m unarmed and Alfred took the flame suit to the cleaners.

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[ocrenter]

[quote=AN]
If my math is wrong, please disprove it. Saying it’s a different league compare to Avaron doesn’t help, especially when I just proved that Avaron does have a premium over Palomino Valley. Which is 5% based on 2007 sold price. Even giving it a generous 10% premium, it would still only put it around $660k 2000 price. Which is much closer to my $670k 2000 price estimate using 9446 Tea Tree Ln and 17235 Tallow Tree Ln as data points.

BTW, Avaron as a whole is better than the area Palomino Valley is in. HOWEVER, 15595 S Rising River Pl is right next to the gate and backs to Camino del Sur, which is very busy (i.e. loud). Palomino Valley house does not have the same issue. That might explain the small premium I calculated based on past sale prices.[/quote]

there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?

[Eugene]

[quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.

[Eugene]

[quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.

[Eugene]

[quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.

[Eugene]

[quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.

[Eugene]

[quote=temeculaguy]
oc, speaking of Eugene, he freaking nailed like three predictions from two years ago that I found on some old threads, I was gonna bump them for fun. Then he nails the stock bottom, and as you pointed out, 2000 pricing, Eugene, you are the new BUGS, “you are my boy, blue.”[/quote]

Ha ha, thanks, but I wasn’t even here two years ago, you must be confusing me with someone else. Also, I missed the stock bottom, but it seems that I was correct when I was telling people to buy in January rather than wait for S&P to hit 600.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?[/quote]
How do you know this home didn’t have any of those upgrades built into the house? I can see landscaping being extra ad on later, but shutters, usually, people get that upgrade from the lender. Especially people in this price range. They don’t have the time and energy to shop around aftermarket. Talking about landscaping, the front hard looks dead and the backyard is just hardscape. So, lets say it cost them $100k to do the backyard hardscape, it would still only give this house ~12-15% premium. So, 12-15% premium would bring the 2000 price to be around $670k-$690k.

This was built as a luxury home, so a lot of upgrades might be built into the house when it was first built, so as you said, some of the best one went for $1.77M. I assume those are the ones w/ 30000 sq-ft lot in the best location. This one has one of the worse location, hence the 2007 sold price. Wasn’t this home sold for $1.21M.

OK, if you’re so adamant about not using Palomino house as referent point, then lets use the Tea Tree house. As you said they’re very similar in built quality. However, the Tea Tree house is not backing up to Camino del Sur. Back in 2007, the Rising River was sold for $1.21M while the Tea Tree house were going for closer to $1.6-1.7M (it already have all the premium built in, since it was resale in 2007). So, add your $170k in upgrades to the Rising River house, 2007 price would be around $1.7M. Which still put it at around 15-20% premium when comparing the 2 properties. So, back in 2000, the Tea Tree sold for $730k, add in landscaping, would put it at around $830k, then subtract 15-20%. We would then have $664k-$705k. That’s where I’d put this house 2000 price to be, not $800k.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?[/quote]
How do you know this home didn’t have any of those upgrades built into the house? I can see landscaping being extra ad on later, but shutters, usually, people get that upgrade from the lender. Especially people in this price range. They don’t have the time and energy to shop around aftermarket. Talking about landscaping, the front hard looks dead and the backyard is just hardscape. So, lets say it cost them $100k to do the backyard hardscape, it would still only give this house ~12-15% premium. So, 12-15% premium would bring the 2000 price to be around $670k-$690k.

This was built as a luxury home, so a lot of upgrades might be built into the house when it was first built, so as you said, some of the best one went for $1.77M. I assume those are the ones w/ 30000 sq-ft lot in the best location. This one has one of the worse location, hence the 2007 sold price. Wasn’t this home sold for $1.21M.

OK, if you’re so adamant about not using Palomino house as referent point, then lets use the Tea Tree house. As you said they’re very similar in built quality. However, the Tea Tree house is not backing up to Camino del Sur. Back in 2007, the Rising River was sold for $1.21M while the Tea Tree house were going for closer to $1.6-1.7M (it already have all the premium built in, since it was resale in 2007). So, add your $170k in upgrades to the Rising River house, 2007 price would be around $1.7M. Which still put it at around 15-20% premium when comparing the 2 properties. So, back in 2000, the Tea Tree sold for $730k, add in landscaping, would put it at around $830k, then subtract 15-20%. We would then have $664k-$705k. That’s where I’d put this house 2000 price to be, not $800k.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?[/quote]
How do you know this home didn’t have any of those upgrades built into the house? I can see landscaping being extra ad on later, but shutters, usually, people get that upgrade from the lender. Especially people in this price range. They don’t have the time and energy to shop around aftermarket. Talking about landscaping, the front hard looks dead and the backyard is just hardscape. So, lets say it cost them $100k to do the backyard hardscape, it would still only give this house ~12-15% premium. So, 12-15% premium would bring the 2000 price to be around $670k-$690k.

This was built as a luxury home, so a lot of upgrades might be built into the house when it was first built, so as you said, some of the best one went for $1.77M. I assume those are the ones w/ 30000 sq-ft lot in the best location. This one has one of the worse location, hence the 2007 sold price. Wasn’t this home sold for $1.21M.

OK, if you’re so adamant about not using Palomino house as referent point, then lets use the Tea Tree house. As you said they’re very similar in built quality. However, the Tea Tree house is not backing up to Camino del Sur. Back in 2007, the Rising River was sold for $1.21M while the Tea Tree house were going for closer to $1.6-1.7M (it already have all the premium built in, since it was resale in 2007). So, add your $170k in upgrades to the Rising River house, 2007 price would be around $1.7M. Which still put it at around 15-20% premium when comparing the 2 properties. So, back in 2000, the Tea Tree sold for $730k, add in landscaping, would put it at around $830k, then subtract 15-20%. We would then have $664k-$705k. That’s where I’d put this house 2000 price to be, not $800k.

[an]

[quote=ocrenter]
there are several problems bringing in Palomino Valley for comparison. #1: Palomino Valley is aimed at a different clientele, #2: average lot size for Palomino Valley is 8500 to 9500, vs 12000 to 30,000 sqft for Avaron, #3: the quality of the homes are night and day. Avaron is luxury based where as Palomino Valley is oversized tract home with typical tract home amenities. #4: you took a resale home fully landscaped and fully upgraded to compare to a new home without the above.

still not convinced that you were comparing apples and oranges?

In 2007 some of the best homes in the Palomino tract overlooking trails and open space went as high as $1.18 million. In 2007 some of the best homes in Avaron went for $1.77 million. But even looking at typical lots, we are looking at $1.4 to $1.5 million average. And remember these are again brand new homes compared to homes fully done. 5% premium would mean average Avaron homes would have been in the 1.2 million range. I just don’t see it.

The Tea Tree and Silver Gum homes are more comparable because they were brand new homes back in 2000. They were build as luxury homes much like Avaron. Some of the lot sizes in Avaron are smaller, but mostly Avaron lots can be comparable to them.

Going back to 15595 S Rising River Pl. The pool, the spa, the hardscape, the flooring, the shutters, we are looking at basically $170k in upgrades. $880k minus $170k gets you $710k. But you are on the hook for $20k of appliances so let’s add that to $710k for final value of $730k. You figure most of the Tea Tree/Silver Gum will have a lot primium to 15595 given the larger lot size. So you add $100k to the $730k and you get into the $800k range. So how is this NOT at 2000 pricing?[/quote]
How do you know this home didn’t have any of those upgrades built into the house? I can see landscaping being extra ad on later, but shutters, usually, people get that upgrade from the lender. Especially people in this price range. They don’t have the time and energy to shop around aftermarket. Talking about landscaping, the front hard looks dead and the backyard is just hardscape. So, lets say it cost them $100k to do the backyard hardscape, it would still only give this house ~12-15% premium. So, 12-15% premium would bring the 2000 price to be around $670k-$690k.

This was built as a luxury home, so a lot of upgrades might be built into the house when it was first built, so as you said, some of the best one went for $1.77M. I assume those are the ones w/ 30000 sq-ft lot in the best location. This one has one of the worse location, hence the 2007 sold price. Wasn’t this home sold for $1.21M.

OK, if you’re so adamant about not using Palomino house as referent point, then lets use the Tea Tree house. As you said they’re very similar in built quality. However, the Tea Tree house is not backing up to Camino del Sur. Back in 2007, the Rising River was sold for $1.21M while the Tea Tree house were going for closer to $1.6-1.7M (it already have all the premium built in, since it was resale in 2007). So, add your $170k in upgrades to the Rising River house, 2007 price would be around $1.7M. Which still put it at around 15-20% premium when comparing the 2 properties. So, back in 2000, the Tea Tree sold for $730k, add in landscaping, would put it at around $830k, then subtract 15-20%. We would then have $664k-$705k. That’s where I’d put this house 2000 price to be, not $800k.

[Author]

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