Are people already spending their rebate checks?

[Coronita]

I just got back from fashion valley and also the costco around there. The mall was completely packed and traffic was so bad, it took awhile just to get into the parking lot. If one were to look at the mall activity, you would think what recession?

What gives? People already spending their rebate checks?

[davelj]

The vast majority of people won’t even notice a recession. The typical peak-to-trough decline in GDP is about 2%. A year-over-year decline of 3%-4% in traffic at a mall is a financial disaster because retail profit margins are extremely thin. A small change in traffic and spending is the difference between a profit and a loss for many stores. So unless you’re able to monitor changes in traffic/parking/spending using amazing powers of occular regression, you aren’t going to notice when the economy has turned south by spending time at a shopping mall. You might, however, get a feel for things by talking to the managers of the stores because they are seeing a daily P&L.

Yes, the malls are packed. Yes, we’re in a recession. There’s no mystery or contradiction here. It’s the economics of “the margin” which most people can’t grasp.

[davelj]

The vast majority of people won’t even notice a recession. The typical peak-to-trough decline in GDP is about 2%. A year-over-year decline of 3%-4% in traffic at a mall is a financial disaster because retail profit margins are extremely thin. A small change in traffic and spending is the difference between a profit and a loss for many stores. So unless you’re able to monitor changes in traffic/parking/spending using amazing powers of occular regression, you aren’t going to notice when the economy has turned south by spending time at a shopping mall. You might, however, get a feel for things by talking to the managers of the stores because they are seeing a daily P&L.

Yes, the malls are packed. Yes, we’re in a recession. There’s no mystery or contradiction here. It’s the economics of “the margin” which most people can’t grasp.

[davelj]

The vast majority of people won’t even notice a recession. The typical peak-to-trough decline in GDP is about 2%. A year-over-year decline of 3%-4% in traffic at a mall is a financial disaster because retail profit margins are extremely thin. A small change in traffic and spending is the difference between a profit and a loss for many stores. So unless you’re able to monitor changes in traffic/parking/spending using amazing powers of occular regression, you aren’t going to notice when the economy has turned south by spending time at a shopping mall. You might, however, get a feel for things by talking to the managers of the stores because they are seeing a daily P&L.

Yes, the malls are packed. Yes, we’re in a recession. There’s no mystery or contradiction here. It’s the economics of “the margin” which most people can’t grasp.

[davelj]

The vast majority of people won’t even notice a recession. The typical peak-to-trough decline in GDP is about 2%. A year-over-year decline of 3%-4% in traffic at a mall is a financial disaster because retail profit margins are extremely thin. A small change in traffic and spending is the difference between a profit and a loss for many stores. So unless you’re able to monitor changes in traffic/parking/spending using amazing powers of occular regression, you aren’t going to notice when the economy has turned south by spending time at a shopping mall. You might, however, get a feel for things by talking to the managers of the stores because they are seeing a daily P&L.

Yes, the malls are packed. Yes, we’re in a recession. There’s no mystery or contradiction here. It’s the economics of “the margin” which most people can’t grasp.

[davelj]

The vast majority of people won’t even notice a recession. The typical peak-to-trough decline in GDP is about 2%. A year-over-year decline of 3%-4% in traffic at a mall is a financial disaster because retail profit margins are extremely thin. A small change in traffic and spending is the difference between a profit and a loss for many stores. So unless you’re able to monitor changes in traffic/parking/spending using amazing powers of occular regression, you aren’t going to notice when the economy has turned south by spending time at a shopping mall. You might, however, get a feel for things by talking to the managers of the stores because they are seeing a daily P&L.

Yes, the malls are packed. Yes, we’re in a recession. There’s no mystery or contradiction here. It’s the economics of “the margin” which most people can’t grasp.

[TheBreeze]

One theory is that as people walk away from their homes (and mortgage payments) they rent a cheaper place and actually have more money to spend on other stuff. People aren’t losing their jobs yet, they’re just walking away from their mortgages. However, my guess is that this effect will be more than canceled out by the sharp reduction in HELOC money.

[TheBreeze]

One theory is that as people walk away from their homes (and mortgage payments) they rent a cheaper place and actually have more money to spend on other stuff. People aren’t losing their jobs yet, they’re just walking away from their mortgages. However, my guess is that this effect will be more than canceled out by the sharp reduction in HELOC money.

[TheBreeze]

One theory is that as people walk away from their homes (and mortgage payments) they rent a cheaper place and actually have more money to spend on other stuff. People aren’t losing their jobs yet, they’re just walking away from their mortgages. However, my guess is that this effect will be more than canceled out by the sharp reduction in HELOC money.

[TheBreeze]

One theory is that as people walk away from their homes (and mortgage payments) they rent a cheaper place and actually have more money to spend on other stuff. People aren’t losing their jobs yet, they’re just walking away from their mortgages. However, my guess is that this effect will be more than canceled out by the sharp reduction in HELOC money.

[TheBreeze]

One theory is that as people walk away from their homes (and mortgage payments) they rent a cheaper place and actually have more money to spend on other stuff. People aren’t losing their jobs yet, they’re just walking away from their mortgages. However, my guess is that this effect will be more than canceled out by the sharp reduction in HELOC money.

[bsrsharma]

Simpler explanation – Fashion Valley (and even Costco) tends to cater to folks who are not that sensitive to economic cycles. The impact is much more dramatic at lower end first. Try seeing what people are buying at WalMart/KMart etc., My guess is it is mostly consumer staples.

[bsrsharma]

Simpler explanation – Fashion Valley (and even Costco) tends to cater to folks who are not that sensitive to economic cycles. The impact is much more dramatic at lower end first. Try seeing what people are buying at WalMart/KMart etc., My guess is it is mostly consumer staples.

[bsrsharma]

Simpler explanation – Fashion Valley (and even Costco) tends to cater to folks who are not that sensitive to economic cycles. The impact is much more dramatic at lower end first. Try seeing what people are buying at WalMart/KMart etc., My guess is it is mostly consumer staples.

[bsrsharma]

Simpler explanation – Fashion Valley (and even Costco) tends to cater to folks who are not that sensitive to economic cycles. The impact is much more dramatic at lower end first. Try seeing what people are buying at WalMart/KMart etc., My guess is it is mostly consumer staples.

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