Just got a flyer on median sales prices by ZIP code and region for April. Prices are flat to slightly down Y-O-Y just about everywhere. The only exception was North Inland which was up 5% and is likely due to the first batch of bigger/better new tract homes like 4S Ranch resales clearing the market. Bear in mind that April closings were February and March sales. Prices definitely feel lower since them as sellers realize the prime selling season is upon them and rapidly disapating. I’d expect to hear about 5% drops in median across the board when May/June sales close in July/August and are reported in September.
If there’s a rush to the door, expect it to start around October 1st. Right now, well priced listings are selling very well. At that point, selling prices wont necessarily drop but inflated asking prices will have no choice but to come down to more reasonable levels. Not sure what will happen, but if something does happen that is when you can expect to start seeing it in earnest.
Thanks for the inside info. This makes total sense. Like you, no one else really know for sure what will happen. We’ll just have to wait and see. Hopefully by then, the prime selling season is over and people who are just testing the market will go away and the one that’s left needs to sell. Hopefully, they’ll readjust their listing price to it’s true price and volume will pick up and DOM will go down. Low volume flattening price = top, volume pick up and decreasing price = going down the back side of the curve.
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