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August 16, 2007 at 9:50 AM #76311August 16, 2007 at 9:50 AM #76431(former)FormerSanDieganParticipant
The CFC situation is too volatile in my mind to take a contrarian view.
I am, however, more optimistic about the large banks (e.g. BofA, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup) I think they will survive and that there will be opportunities through this mess to pick those up on the cheap.August 16, 2007 at 9:50 AM #76456(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantThe CFC situation is too volatile in my mind to take a contrarian view.
I am, however, more optimistic about the large banks (e.g. BofA, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup) I think they will survive and that there will be opportunities through this mess to pick those up on the cheap.August 16, 2007 at 10:08 AM #76326betting on fallParticipantI think the fundamental problem is that with home sales cut in half and higher interest rates eliminating refinancing, demand for loans is probably down 75%.
If we were suddenly buying 75% fewer cars, what would happen to the auto industry?
There are two choices: downscale yourself quickly, or have a bankruptcy judge and your creditors decide how to do it.
August 16, 2007 at 10:08 AM #76446betting on fallParticipantI think the fundamental problem is that with home sales cut in half and higher interest rates eliminating refinancing, demand for loans is probably down 75%.
If we were suddenly buying 75% fewer cars, what would happen to the auto industry?
There are two choices: downscale yourself quickly, or have a bankruptcy judge and your creditors decide how to do it.
August 16, 2007 at 10:08 AM #76471betting on fallParticipantI think the fundamental problem is that with home sales cut in half and higher interest rates eliminating refinancing, demand for loans is probably down 75%.
If we were suddenly buying 75% fewer cars, what would happen to the auto industry?
There are two choices: downscale yourself quickly, or have a bankruptcy judge and your creditors decide how to do it.
August 16, 2007 at 10:19 AM #76332AnonymousGuestGo ahead and take the contrarain view and buy some CFC stock, see how that works out for you..
CFC is finished, it was this viewpoint of their so-called diversity that allowed their share price to weather the initial subprime meltdown in February. That is why it was an enourmous opportunity to short them at that point.
If CFC does under the housing market is officially toast.
August 16, 2007 at 10:19 AM #76452AnonymousGuestGo ahead and take the contrarain view and buy some CFC stock, see how that works out for you..
CFC is finished, it was this viewpoint of their so-called diversity that allowed their share price to weather the initial subprime meltdown in February. That is why it was an enourmous opportunity to short them at that point.
If CFC does under the housing market is officially toast.
August 16, 2007 at 10:19 AM #76477AnonymousGuestGo ahead and take the contrarain view and buy some CFC stock, see how that works out for you..
CFC is finished, it was this viewpoint of their so-called diversity that allowed their share price to weather the initial subprime meltdown in February. That is why it was an enourmous opportunity to short them at that point.
If CFC does under the housing market is officially toast.
August 16, 2007 at 10:40 AM #76362asragovParticipantIt seems like it is “too big to fail.”
Although being somewhat outside the banking system, CFC presents a difficult policy challenge.
You might enjoy this post, from over at Minyanville, “CFC empties out on Widowmaker”:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734
August 16, 2007 at 10:40 AM #76482asragovParticipantIt seems like it is “too big to fail.”
Although being somewhat outside the banking system, CFC presents a difficult policy challenge.
You might enjoy this post, from over at Minyanville, “CFC empties out on Widowmaker”:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734
August 16, 2007 at 10:40 AM #76507asragovParticipantIt seems like it is “too big to fail.”
Although being somewhat outside the banking system, CFC presents a difficult policy challenge.
You might enjoy this post, from over at Minyanville, “CFC empties out on Widowmaker”:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-mortgage-moody%27s-bill+poole-mer/index/a/13734
August 16, 2007 at 12:56 PM #76454lonestar2000ParticipantWith CFC execs cashing out their options, and CFC tapping their entire available credit for the next three months, I hardly think their issues are overblown. Even if they survive they are a huge target for a takeover/buyout. I can think of several Chinese banks with more money collecting dust than they know what to do with.
August 16, 2007 at 12:56 PM #76575lonestar2000ParticipantWith CFC execs cashing out their options, and CFC tapping their entire available credit for the next three months, I hardly think their issues are overblown. Even if they survive they are a huge target for a takeover/buyout. I can think of several Chinese banks with more money collecting dust than they know what to do with.
August 16, 2007 at 12:56 PM #76601lonestar2000ParticipantWith CFC execs cashing out their options, and CFC tapping their entire available credit for the next three months, I hardly think their issues are overblown. Even if they survive they are a huge target for a takeover/buyout. I can think of several Chinese banks with more money collecting dust than they know what to do with.
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