Anyone shorting stocks yet?

[moneymaker]

I’ve never shorted anything before, now seems like a good time to look into doing it. I’m predicting deflationary pressures in the market. Can I short the market as a whole? Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Dow 500, ?

[scaredyclassic]

Yes you can. Direxionfunds.com

Others.

At your own peril.

Timing is everything.

[spdrun]

You can — you can either short an ETF or there are reverse ETFs that essentially do it for you. I personally don’t like the idea of shorting — the whole exposure to unlimited losses thing.

[livinincali]

For the S&P there 3 big ones are
SH – 1x short S&P daily
SDS – 2x short S&P daily
SPXU – 3x short S&P daily

returns for these are generated using derivatives. I.e. short term index puts and calls. They theoretically could go to zero but it’s unlikely. The market as a whole would have to move more than it’s ever done in a single day to the upside.

Basically suppose you had the following scenario in the S&P
day 1 = -1.0%
day 2 = -0.5%
day 3 = +0.7%
day 4 = -1.5%
day 5 = -1.0%

If you used Sh and the shares were $20 when you bought them you would end up with the following.

day 1 = $20.20
day 2 = $20.30
day 3 = $20.16
day 4 = $20.46
day 5 = $20.67

[The-Shoveler]

First, I am really really lousy at the Stock market in general.

But I am kind of reversing course here and think that a stock market crash is a possibility short term.
If the Russia thing gets out of hand, then there is china that looks like it is ready to implode as well.

To me it kind of almost looks like 2000-2003 where stocks imploded and they goosed the economy by dumping gobs of money into the real estate sector.
But I also keep in the back of mind that I almost have absolute faith that the Central bank can pave over any issues with dollars.
I don’t have a clue what will happen.

[spdrun]

I don’t think China will implode. Their growth rate may be cut in half, but they’ll still be doing well by Western standards.

China’s environmental laws and infrastructure need to catch up with its growth rate — any slowdown is basically a necessary breather for them to get their house in order.

[The-Shoveler]

OT, spdrun,

You close to that Building in NY on fire ?

[DataAgent]

Why short stocks? We will see Dow 17,000 by the end of this year. It’s only a 4% move from where we are now.

[The-Shoveler]

To me stocks are kind of like BitCoin, they have no real value, companies can decide to issue new stock at any time and dilute the shares or declare BK without warring.
(people even think they may have a certain value based on assets, tell that to the former owners of Kmart shares).

Well IMO anyway.

[spdrun]

You close to that Building in NY on fire ?

It’s physically about 2 1/2 miles from where I live, but I’m a bit further away right now. They’re saying it was probably a gas explosion — gas company should install detectors in all entrances to multi-family buildings, connected to the dispatch board of the fire dept. Should be relatively easy to do, what with wireless communication being pretty ubiquitous nowadays.

Thankfully this happened on a weekday morning, so there weren’t more people in the building.

[scaredyclassic]

Never invest in anything unless it makes you feel physically sick to purchase it. If it seems like a really bad idea with much further down dude after a big slide you’re probably buying near the bottom.

[spdrun]

^^^
Or you’re just buying a really crummy stock that will go bankrupt tomorrow. Buy what the lemmings are selling, but be comfortable with the business fundamentals (or at least with the quantity of lemmings willing to buy a dip).

[teaboy]

[quote=Niels Bohr]Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.[/quote]

I’ve always wanted to have a go at shorting individual stocks but never had the balls to even bother to look into it.

But given that the Stock Market has historically risen 8% per year or whatever, isn’t shorting the market a mug’s game?

-tb

[moneymaker]

Maybe buying silver would be a better (safer) bet. At least there is something you can touch and caress. I figure with the low bond yields as soon as the market starts going down people will pile into gold/silver.

[spdrun]

But given that the Stock Market has historically risen 8% per year or whatever, isn’t shorting the market a mug’s game?

On average, but it doesn’t mean you can’t make money off if it happens to go down over a given period.

[Author]

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