anyone even slightley bullish about RE market?

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=carlsbadworker]The economy will recover one day or another. I believe at least we agree on that, right?
[/quote]

One day, I guess.

What is it about “Japan had 0% rates and still lost a decade” that people don’t understand ?

[/quote]

True. But Japan’s bubble was 3x the size of ours as calculated by the ratio of (total real estate value + stock market value)/GDP. And 95% of the debt related to Japan’s bubble was domestic. 26% of our bubble debt is held by foreigners. Not saying we won’t have an ugly decade – we will – but let’s put the two bubbles in the proper perspective relative to each other before we start predicting comparative futures. We have more debt and lower savings than did Japan, but our bubble was a mere fraction of theirs. Net/net we’re coming out of our bubble with better prospects than Japan – which just means we’ll suck a little less wind than they have, which may not be much consolation for a lot of folks.

[leucadiarenter]

sdr – so you think that 2009 will not be a repeat of 2008? Aka – there will be an approx 10% decline in home prices for 2009 or ?

[leucadiarenter]

sdr – so you think that 2009 will not be a repeat of 2008? Aka – there will be an approx 10% decline in home prices for 2009 or ?

[leucadiarenter]

sdr – so you think that 2009 will not be a repeat of 2008? Aka – there will be an approx 10% decline in home prices for 2009 or ?

[leucadiarenter]

sdr – so you think that 2009 will not be a repeat of 2008? Aka – there will be an approx 10% decline in home prices for 2009 or ?

[leucadiarenter]

sdr – so you think that 2009 will not be a repeat of 2008? Aka – there will be an approx 10% decline in home prices for 2009 or ?

[davelj]

[quote=patientrenter]I’ll piggyback on this thread to ask a question I’ve been mulling for a while:

You’ve all seen the Shiller charts that show this real estate bubble was the biggest in recorded human history. That’s right, what happened to real estate prices in just the last 10 years – in San Diego, in California, in the USA, in much of the rest of the world – was bigger than anything ever recorded.

[/quote]

I haven’t seen Shiller’s charts, but Japan’s real estate and stock market bubbles were both much larger than ours by a factor. In 1989, the grounds surrounding the royal palace in Tokyo were worth more than all of the real estate in the state of California combined.

Comparing our peak with Japan’s peak, Japan’s ratio of (real estate market value + stock market value)/GDP was 3x ours. We had a huge bubble. Perhaps the second largest in history. But Japan’s was in a different ballpark entirely relative to ours.

[davelj]

[quote=patientrenter]I’ll piggyback on this thread to ask a question I’ve been mulling for a while:

You’ve all seen the Shiller charts that show this real estate bubble was the biggest in recorded human history. That’s right, what happened to real estate prices in just the last 10 years – in San Diego, in California, in the USA, in much of the rest of the world – was bigger than anything ever recorded.

[/quote]

I haven’t seen Shiller’s charts, but Japan’s real estate and stock market bubbles were both much larger than ours by a factor. In 1989, the grounds surrounding the royal palace in Tokyo were worth more than all of the real estate in the state of California combined.

Comparing our peak with Japan’s peak, Japan’s ratio of (real estate market value + stock market value)/GDP was 3x ours. We had a huge bubble. Perhaps the second largest in history. But Japan’s was in a different ballpark entirely relative to ours.

[davelj]

[quote=patientrenter]I’ll piggyback on this thread to ask a question I’ve been mulling for a while:

You’ve all seen the Shiller charts that show this real estate bubble was the biggest in recorded human history. That’s right, what happened to real estate prices in just the last 10 years – in San Diego, in California, in the USA, in much of the rest of the world – was bigger than anything ever recorded.

[/quote]

I haven’t seen Shiller’s charts, but Japan’s real estate and stock market bubbles were both much larger than ours by a factor. In 1989, the grounds surrounding the royal palace in Tokyo were worth more than all of the real estate in the state of California combined.

Comparing our peak with Japan’s peak, Japan’s ratio of (real estate market value + stock market value)/GDP was 3x ours. We had a huge bubble. Perhaps the second largest in history. But Japan’s was in a different ballpark entirely relative to ours.

[davelj]

[quote=patientrenter]I’ll piggyback on this thread to ask a question I’ve been mulling for a while:

You’ve all seen the Shiller charts that show this real estate bubble was the biggest in recorded human history. That’s right, what happened to real estate prices in just the last 10 years – in San Diego, in California, in the USA, in much of the rest of the world – was bigger than anything ever recorded.

[/quote]

I haven’t seen Shiller’s charts, but Japan’s real estate and stock market bubbles were both much larger than ours by a factor. In 1989, the grounds surrounding the royal palace in Tokyo were worth more than all of the real estate in the state of California combined.

Comparing our peak with Japan’s peak, Japan’s ratio of (real estate market value + stock market value)/GDP was 3x ours. We had a huge bubble. Perhaps the second largest in history. But Japan’s was in a different ballpark entirely relative to ours.

[davelj]

[quote=patientrenter]I’ll piggyback on this thread to ask a question I’ve been mulling for a while:

You’ve all seen the Shiller charts that show this real estate bubble was the biggest in recorded human history. That’s right, what happened to real estate prices in just the last 10 years – in San Diego, in California, in the USA, in much of the rest of the world – was bigger than anything ever recorded.

[/quote]

I haven’t seen Shiller’s charts, but Japan’s real estate and stock market bubbles were both much larger than ours by a factor. In 1989, the grounds surrounding the royal palace in Tokyo were worth more than all of the real estate in the state of California combined.

Comparing our peak with Japan’s peak, Japan’s ratio of (real estate market value + stock market value)/GDP was 3x ours. We had a huge bubble. Perhaps the second largest in history. But Japan’s was in a different ballpark entirely relative to ours.

[peterb]

I wonder what happens when deflation hits wages?

[peterb]

I wonder what happens when deflation hits wages?

[peterb]

I wonder what happens when deflation hits wages?

[peterb]

I wonder what happens when deflation hits wages?

[Author]

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