anyone even slightley bullish about RE market?

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=carlsbadworker]
The reason that Japan had 0% rates but it still has deflation is because the famous phenomenon known as “carry-trade”. The rest of the world’s economy was booming at that time. So naturally, people took money from Japan central bank and invested it elsewhere. So the printing press does not work as a tool to fight deflation over there.
[/quote]

Actually, Japan’s low rates didn’t translate to an increase in the money supply. And they didn’t start quantitative easing (central banker euphemism for money printing) until 2001 — ie a decade after the bust started. So as far as the “printing press” goes, Bernanke and crew have already done what it took Japan over a decade to do.

Rich

[kev374]

bullish? The media is predicting 30% decline for SoCal in the next year, and usually these guys are raving about how real estate is appreciating. That should tell you something!

[kev374]

bullish? The media is predicting 30% decline for SoCal in the next year, and usually these guys are raving about how real estate is appreciating. That should tell you something!

[kev374]

bullish? The media is predicting 30% decline for SoCal in the next year, and usually these guys are raving about how real estate is appreciating. That should tell you something!

[kev374]

bullish? The media is predicting 30% decline for SoCal in the next year, and usually these guys are raving about how real estate is appreciating. That should tell you something!

[kev374]

bullish? The media is predicting 30% decline for SoCal in the next year, and usually these guys are raving about how real estate is appreciating. That should tell you something!

[sdrealtor]

Kev
Most of the decline they predicted has already happened as they are basing it on the median for all of 2008 and we are already down well over 20% from that figure. Oh yeah, they are always wrong and late in their predictions so we are being contrarians.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Kev
Most of the decline they predicted has already happened as they are basing it on the median for all of 2008 and we are already down well over 20% from that figure. Oh yeah, they are always wrong and late in their predictions so we are being contrarians.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Kev
Most of the decline they predicted has already happened as they are basing it on the median for all of 2008 and we are already down well over 20% from that figure. Oh yeah, they are always wrong and late in their predictions so we are being contrarians.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Kev
Most of the decline they predicted has already happened as they are basing it on the median for all of 2008 and we are already down well over 20% from that figure. Oh yeah, they are always wrong and late in their predictions so we are being contrarians.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Kev
Most of the decline they predicted has already happened as they are basing it on the median for all of 2008 and we are already down well over 20% from that figure. Oh yeah, they are always wrong and late in their predictions so we are being contrarians.

sdr

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=carlsbadworker]The economy will recover one day or another. I believe at least we agree on that, right?
[/quote]

One day, I guess.

What is it about “Japan had 0% rates and still lost a decade” that people don’t understand ?

[/quote]

True. But Japan’s bubble was 3x the size of ours as calculated by the ratio of (total real estate value + stock market value)/GDP. And 95% of the debt related to Japan’s bubble was domestic. 26% of our bubble debt is held by foreigners. Not saying we won’t have an ugly decade – we will – but let’s put the two bubbles in the proper perspective relative to each other before we start predicting comparative futures. We have more debt and lower savings than did Japan, but our bubble was a mere fraction of theirs. Net/net we’re coming out of our bubble with better prospects than Japan – which just means we’ll suck a little less wind than they have, which may not be much consolation for a lot of folks.

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=carlsbadworker]The economy will recover one day or another. I believe at least we agree on that, right?
[/quote]

One day, I guess.

What is it about “Japan had 0% rates and still lost a decade” that people don’t understand ?

[/quote]

True. But Japan’s bubble was 3x the size of ours as calculated by the ratio of (total real estate value + stock market value)/GDP. And 95% of the debt related to Japan’s bubble was domestic. 26% of our bubble debt is held by foreigners. Not saying we won’t have an ugly decade – we will – but let’s put the two bubbles in the proper perspective relative to each other before we start predicting comparative futures. We have more debt and lower savings than did Japan, but our bubble was a mere fraction of theirs. Net/net we’re coming out of our bubble with better prospects than Japan – which just means we’ll suck a little less wind than they have, which may not be much consolation for a lot of folks.

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=carlsbadworker]The economy will recover one day or another. I believe at least we agree on that, right?
[/quote]

One day, I guess.

What is it about “Japan had 0% rates and still lost a decade” that people don’t understand ?

[/quote]

True. But Japan’s bubble was 3x the size of ours as calculated by the ratio of (total real estate value + stock market value)/GDP. And 95% of the debt related to Japan’s bubble was domestic. 26% of our bubble debt is held by foreigners. Not saying we won’t have an ugly decade – we will – but let’s put the two bubbles in the proper perspective relative to each other before we start predicting comparative futures. We have more debt and lower savings than did Japan, but our bubble was a mere fraction of theirs. Net/net we’re coming out of our bubble with better prospects than Japan – which just means we’ll suck a little less wind than they have, which may not be much consolation for a lot of folks.

[davelj]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=carlsbadworker]The economy will recover one day or another. I believe at least we agree on that, right?
[/quote]

One day, I guess.

What is it about “Japan had 0% rates and still lost a decade” that people don’t understand ?

[/quote]

True. But Japan’s bubble was 3x the size of ours as calculated by the ratio of (total real estate value + stock market value)/GDP. And 95% of the debt related to Japan’s bubble was domestic. 26% of our bubble debt is held by foreigners. Not saying we won’t have an ugly decade – we will – but let’s put the two bubbles in the proper perspective relative to each other before we start predicting comparative futures. We have more debt and lower savings than did Japan, but our bubble was a mere fraction of theirs. Net/net we’re coming out of our bubble with better prospects than Japan – which just means we’ll suck a little less wind than they have, which may not be much consolation for a lot of folks.

[Author]

Posts