Affordibility Returns

[Ren]

[quote=temeculaguy]I’m not saying that La Jolla or Del Mar wont always be expensive in relative terms but they can’t maintain being out of whack with Del Mar and La Jolla incomes. In past busts they fell similar percentages to the rest of the county, everything is connected but it’s not immediately connected, it takes time to spread. [/quote]

Exactly. The La Jolla median has tanked in the last year. Whether current real-world sale price reductions there are that extreme, I don’t know, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see an end result of 40-50% off the peak in the next few years. That’s in line with the percent drop for inland areas, and will still leave coastal properties much more expensive than inland.

During the boom, the koolaid was that prices would never come down. Then it was that they would come down, but not in the desirable coastal areas. Now it’s that they will come down in the coastal areas, but hardly at all.

Keep drinking.

[peterb]

Anyone who bought in the DM and LJ or any other beach area in the last 4 years is very likely making large mortgage payments. If so, job loss could force them to sell. Unemployment is rising. I wonder how many Alt-A and no-money down loans were used to purchase homes in these areas?
In this market, most people selling are doing so out of duress. That’s what drives prices down.I Wonder what the inventory volume and the sales volume is like for these areas?

[peterb]

Anyone who bought in the DM and LJ or any other beach area in the last 4 years is very likely making large mortgage payments. If so, job loss could force them to sell. Unemployment is rising. I wonder how many Alt-A and no-money down loans were used to purchase homes in these areas?
In this market, most people selling are doing so out of duress. That’s what drives prices down.I Wonder what the inventory volume and the sales volume is like for these areas?

[peterb]

Anyone who bought in the DM and LJ or any other beach area in the last 4 years is very likely making large mortgage payments. If so, job loss could force them to sell. Unemployment is rising. I wonder how many Alt-A and no-money down loans were used to purchase homes in these areas?
In this market, most people selling are doing so out of duress. That’s what drives prices down.I Wonder what the inventory volume and the sales volume is like for these areas?

[peterb]

Anyone who bought in the DM and LJ or any other beach area in the last 4 years is very likely making large mortgage payments. If so, job loss could force them to sell. Unemployment is rising. I wonder how many Alt-A and no-money down loans were used to purchase homes in these areas?
In this market, most people selling are doing so out of duress. That’s what drives prices down.I Wonder what the inventory volume and the sales volume is like for these areas?

[peterb]

Anyone who bought in the DM and LJ or any other beach area in the last 4 years is very likely making large mortgage payments. If so, job loss could force them to sell. Unemployment is rising. I wonder how many Alt-A and no-money down loans were used to purchase homes in these areas?
In this market, most people selling are doing so out of duress. That’s what drives prices down.I Wonder what the inventory volume and the sales volume is like for these areas?

[Huckleberry]

peterb,

I live in PB and can say, it’s difficult to find a block without a place for sale. This last Sat. I drove down a street where there were six houses for sale.

I am pretty sure there are a lot of Alt-A and “creative” loans in that area. I use this website to get a general idea of zip code “distress”. No exact numbers but some sort of idea can be gleaned from it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

[Huckleberry]

peterb,

I live in PB and can say, it’s difficult to find a block without a place for sale. This last Sat. I drove down a street where there were six houses for sale.

I am pretty sure there are a lot of Alt-A and “creative” loans in that area. I use this website to get a general idea of zip code “distress”. No exact numbers but some sort of idea can be gleaned from it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

[Huckleberry]

peterb,

I live in PB and can say, it’s difficult to find a block without a place for sale. This last Sat. I drove down a street where there were six houses for sale.

I am pretty sure there are a lot of Alt-A and “creative” loans in that area. I use this website to get a general idea of zip code “distress”. No exact numbers but some sort of idea can be gleaned from it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

[Huckleberry]

peterb,

I live in PB and can say, it’s difficult to find a block without a place for sale. This last Sat. I drove down a street where there were six houses for sale.

I am pretty sure there are a lot of Alt-A and “creative” loans in that area. I use this website to get a general idea of zip code “distress”. No exact numbers but some sort of idea can be gleaned from it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

[Huckleberry]

peterb,

I live in PB and can say, it’s difficult to find a block without a place for sale. This last Sat. I drove down a street where there were six houses for sale.

I am pretty sure there are a lot of Alt-A and “creative” loans in that area. I use this website to get a general idea of zip code “distress”. No exact numbers but some sort of idea can be gleaned from it.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

[Bugs]

The one thing to remember about the really primo areas of Del Mar and La Jolla is that, relatively speaking, they didn’t enjoy the massive runup in pricing that the lower price ranges did.

The areas on the bottom that are getting hurt the most also increased by the most, percentage wise.

Some of those bottom end neighborhood increased by nearly 400%. In contrast, La Jolla and Del Mar areas increased a lot, but not 400% worth. More like 250% or so.

Unless these areas break the pattern that has prevailed so far in past cycles, they’ll also correct quite a bit, although the percentage corrections won’t be as drastic as the lower priced markets.

If a 1,000 SqFt house in Barrio Logan bottoms out at $120k, the same home in La Jolla won’t be selling for $900k. It’ll end up being a lot closer to $500k because the relationship between Barrio Logan and La Jolla has remained relatively consistent over the years.

[Bugs]

The one thing to remember about the really primo areas of Del Mar and La Jolla is that, relatively speaking, they didn’t enjoy the massive runup in pricing that the lower price ranges did.

The areas on the bottom that are getting hurt the most also increased by the most, percentage wise.

Some of those bottom end neighborhood increased by nearly 400%. In contrast, La Jolla and Del Mar areas increased a lot, but not 400% worth. More like 250% or so.

Unless these areas break the pattern that has prevailed so far in past cycles, they’ll also correct quite a bit, although the percentage corrections won’t be as drastic as the lower priced markets.

If a 1,000 SqFt house in Barrio Logan bottoms out at $120k, the same home in La Jolla won’t be selling for $900k. It’ll end up being a lot closer to $500k because the relationship between Barrio Logan and La Jolla has remained relatively consistent over the years.

[Bugs]

The one thing to remember about the really primo areas of Del Mar and La Jolla is that, relatively speaking, they didn’t enjoy the massive runup in pricing that the lower price ranges did.

The areas on the bottom that are getting hurt the most also increased by the most, percentage wise.

Some of those bottom end neighborhood increased by nearly 400%. In contrast, La Jolla and Del Mar areas increased a lot, but not 400% worth. More like 250% or so.

Unless these areas break the pattern that has prevailed so far in past cycles, they’ll also correct quite a bit, although the percentage corrections won’t be as drastic as the lower priced markets.

If a 1,000 SqFt house in Barrio Logan bottoms out at $120k, the same home in La Jolla won’t be selling for $900k. It’ll end up being a lot closer to $500k because the relationship between Barrio Logan and La Jolla has remained relatively consistent over the years.

[Bugs]

The one thing to remember about the really primo areas of Del Mar and La Jolla is that, relatively speaking, they didn’t enjoy the massive runup in pricing that the lower price ranges did.

The areas on the bottom that are getting hurt the most also increased by the most, percentage wise.

Some of those bottom end neighborhood increased by nearly 400%. In contrast, La Jolla and Del Mar areas increased a lot, but not 400% worth. More like 250% or so.

Unless these areas break the pattern that has prevailed so far in past cycles, they’ll also correct quite a bit, although the percentage corrections won’t be as drastic as the lower priced markets.

If a 1,000 SqFt house in Barrio Logan bottoms out at $120k, the same home in La Jolla won’t be selling for $900k. It’ll end up being a lot closer to $500k because the relationship between Barrio Logan and La Jolla has remained relatively consistent over the years.

[Author]

Posts