8% month over month decline in foreclosure rate

[pertinazzio]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21243821

Realtytrack/cnbc.com have report today that although September figures show a 99% increase in nationwide YOY foreclosures , the figures comparing September to August show an 8% decline, which is being interpreted by some that the crisis is easing – that is how I interpret the following link:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21243821

Is this a statistical fluke? Is this worrisome to us “San Diego real estate bubble bear bloggers” ?

[golfproz]

More media spin.

August had 23 business days while September only had 19. On a “per day” basis foreclosures were up in September.

They are grasping at straws….again.

[golfproz]

More media spin.

August had 23 business days while September only had 19. On a “per day” basis foreclosures were up in September.

They are grasping at straws….again.

[pertinazzio]

Wow! You guys are amazing. I never would have thought of that! Makes sense though.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[pertinazzio]

Wow! You guys are amazing. I never would have thought of that! Makes sense though.

Beatus ille qui procul negotiis … paterna rura bobus exercet suis, solutus omni fenore….. Horace

[snail]

You have to look into the trend. Its an increasing trend line so far, one month drop from prior month doesn’t mean nothing if the trend still facing upward. Also like what Golfpro said less day count in September. Its not statistical fluke its call bull-trap.

[snail]

You have to look into the trend. Its an increasing trend line so far, one month drop from prior month doesn’t mean nothing if the trend still facing upward. Also like what Golfpro said less day count in September. Its not statistical fluke its call bull-trap.

[golfproz]

If you take the numbers and do the math you get…

August 57,875 (23 days) is 2516 per day

Sept 51,259 (19 days) is 2697 per day

That works out to roughly a 7% increase per day from August to September.

[golfproz]

If you take the numbers and do the math you get…

August 57,875 (23 days) is 2516 per day

Sept 51,259 (19 days) is 2697 per day

That works out to roughly a 7% increase per day from August to September.

[HereWeGo]

I’m a little surprised Olick missed that fact (the notices/business day stat.)

[HereWeGo]

I’m a little surprised Olick missed that fact (the notices/business day stat.)

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with the poster about the trend line being more important then any monthly results. It is a marathon not a sprint. Just keep patient and keep your time horizon realistic. Personally I am still irritated that the foreclosures rate for homes in the neighborhoods I want to live in is agonizingly low. I do not believe it will pick up for awhile.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with the poster about the trend line being more important then any monthly results. It is a marathon not a sprint. Just keep patient and keep your time horizon realistic. Personally I am still irritated that the foreclosures rate for homes in the neighborhoods I want to live in is agonizingly low. I do not believe it will pick up for awhile.

SD Realtor

[cr]

Year over Year is better:

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double in September Over Same Month a Year Ago

“California’s foreclosure rate was one filing for every 253 households. The state reported the most foreclosure filings of any single state with 51,259, down 11 percent from August but a fourfold increase from September of last year.”

Anyone still think prices won’t fall? If so, I’ve got some swampland to sell you.

[cr]

Year over Year is better:

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double in September Over Same Month a Year Ago

“California’s foreclosure rate was one filing for every 253 households. The state reported the most foreclosure filings of any single state with 51,259, down 11 percent from August but a fourfold increase from September of last year.”

Anyone still think prices won’t fall? If so, I’ve got some swampland to sell you.

[Author]

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