4S ranch–Pienza Jan release

[barnaby33]

Barring a nuclear strike on San Diego, a massive earthquake, a melt down at San Onofre, or a meteor strike on Del Mar it won’t happen.

grateful owner . . . .

Ahhh the smug self confidence of someone who hasn’t the slightest notion of what 9%+ interest rates would do to your homes value. There are no guarantees we’ll get there but if we do, look out below.

I noticed you have a 10 year IO loan, are you paying principle? Otherwise there is a good chance that that debt will become more onerous once deflation becomes more evident.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Barring a nuclear strike on San Diego, a massive earthquake, a melt down at San Onofre, or a meteor strike on Del Mar it won’t happen.

grateful owner . . . .

Ahhh the smug self confidence of someone who hasn’t the slightest notion of what 9%+ interest rates would do to your homes value. There are no guarantees we’ll get there but if we do, look out below.

I noticed you have a 10 year IO loan, are you paying principle? Otherwise there is a good chance that that debt will become more onerous once deflation becomes more evident.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Barring a nuclear strike on San Diego, a massive earthquake, a melt down at San Onofre, or a meteor strike on Del Mar it won’t happen.

grateful owner . . . .

Ahhh the smug self confidence of someone who hasn’t the slightest notion of what 9%+ interest rates would do to your homes value. There are no guarantees we’ll get there but if we do, look out below.

I noticed you have a 10 year IO loan, are you paying principle? Otherwise there is a good chance that that debt will become more onerous once deflation becomes more evident.

Josh

[barnaby33]

Barring a nuclear strike on San Diego, a massive earthquake, a melt down at San Onofre, or a meteor strike on Del Mar it won’t happen.

grateful owner . . . .

Ahhh the smug self confidence of someone who hasn’t the slightest notion of what 9%+ interest rates would do to your homes value. There are no guarantees we’ll get there but if we do, look out below.

I noticed you have a 10 year IO loan, are you paying principle? Otherwise there is a good chance that that debt will become more onerous once deflation becomes more evident.

Josh

[NewtoSanDiego]

4Sbuyer2002,

Wow, you sound like a real wildfire expert. Do you have an advanced degree in Fire Science and Meteorology?

By your Monkier, you seem to have a vested interesting in pumping up the wildfire safety of 4S. You own a home there!

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo is in a HIGH Wildfire risk zone. No gettting around it. Other areas in San Diego county have much lower wildfire risk, JUST LOOK AT THE MAPS! You can subscribe to it to get additional details. As noted earlier, new maps are due by summer.

http://www.sanborn.com/solutions/ca_wildfires_2007.asp

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo had a mandatory evacuation order during the 2007 wildfire that clogged exits out of the community.

The whole shelter-in-place concept is controversial. As stated above, SIP puts respiratory sensitivity individuals like children and older adults at high risk smoke inhalation. THIS WAS STATED IN THE RSF LINKS YOU PROVIDED ABOVE!! I suggest you read thru the links fully before posting them next time.

Now what a great choice, stay in place and hope SIP works and smoke doesn’t destroy your lungs, or get trapped on clogged roads, exits blocked by fire!!!

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/04/28/perspective/9_52_414_20_07.txt

2 can tango if you question my credibility. I’m in the insurance business. Not sure your background. You seem to be cherry picking info by some advocates of Shelter-in-place.

I, like many others have exclude 4S Rancho Bernardo, Ramona, and other areas for consideration for place of residence. These areas have a high risk of future wildfires.

Thank you for your vigorous, albeit biased defense of your community.

[NewtoSanDiego]

4Sbuyer2002,

Wow, you sound like a real wildfire expert. Do you have an advanced degree in Fire Science and Meteorology?

By your Monkier, you seem to have a vested interesting in pumping up the wildfire safety of 4S. You own a home there!

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo is in a HIGH Wildfire risk zone. No gettting around it. Other areas in San Diego county have much lower wildfire risk, JUST LOOK AT THE MAPS! You can subscribe to it to get additional details. As noted earlier, new maps are due by summer.

http://www.sanborn.com/solutions/ca_wildfires_2007.asp

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo had a mandatory evacuation order during the 2007 wildfire that clogged exits out of the community.

The whole shelter-in-place concept is controversial. As stated above, SIP puts respiratory sensitivity individuals like children and older adults at high risk smoke inhalation. THIS WAS STATED IN THE RSF LINKS YOU PROVIDED ABOVE!! I suggest you read thru the links fully before posting them next time.

Now what a great choice, stay in place and hope SIP works and smoke doesn’t destroy your lungs, or get trapped on clogged roads, exits blocked by fire!!!

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/04/28/perspective/9_52_414_20_07.txt

2 can tango if you question my credibility. I’m in the insurance business. Not sure your background. You seem to be cherry picking info by some advocates of Shelter-in-place.

I, like many others have exclude 4S Rancho Bernardo, Ramona, and other areas for consideration for place of residence. These areas have a high risk of future wildfires.

Thank you for your vigorous, albeit biased defense of your community.

[NewtoSanDiego]

4Sbuyer2002,

Wow, you sound like a real wildfire expert. Do you have an advanced degree in Fire Science and Meteorology?

By your Monkier, you seem to have a vested interesting in pumping up the wildfire safety of 4S. You own a home there!

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo is in a HIGH Wildfire risk zone. No gettting around it. Other areas in San Diego county have much lower wildfire risk, JUST LOOK AT THE MAPS! You can subscribe to it to get additional details. As noted earlier, new maps are due by summer.

http://www.sanborn.com/solutions/ca_wildfires_2007.asp

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo had a mandatory evacuation order during the 2007 wildfire that clogged exits out of the community.

The whole shelter-in-place concept is controversial. As stated above, SIP puts respiratory sensitivity individuals like children and older adults at high risk smoke inhalation. THIS WAS STATED IN THE RSF LINKS YOU PROVIDED ABOVE!! I suggest you read thru the links fully before posting them next time.

Now what a great choice, stay in place and hope SIP works and smoke doesn’t destroy your lungs, or get trapped on clogged roads, exits blocked by fire!!!

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/04/28/perspective/9_52_414_20_07.txt

2 can tango if you question my credibility. I’m in the insurance business. Not sure your background. You seem to be cherry picking info by some advocates of Shelter-in-place.

I, like many others have exclude 4S Rancho Bernardo, Ramona, and other areas for consideration for place of residence. These areas have a high risk of future wildfires.

Thank you for your vigorous, albeit biased defense of your community.

[NewtoSanDiego]

4Sbuyer2002,

Wow, you sound like a real wildfire expert. Do you have an advanced degree in Fire Science and Meteorology?

By your Monkier, you seem to have a vested interesting in pumping up the wildfire safety of 4S. You own a home there!

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo is in a HIGH Wildfire risk zone. No gettting around it. Other areas in San Diego county have much lower wildfire risk, JUST LOOK AT THE MAPS! You can subscribe to it to get additional details. As noted earlier, new maps are due by summer.

http://www.sanborn.com/solutions/ca_wildfires_2007.asp

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo had a mandatory evacuation order during the 2007 wildfire that clogged exits out of the community.

The whole shelter-in-place concept is controversial. As stated above, SIP puts respiratory sensitivity individuals like children and older adults at high risk smoke inhalation. THIS WAS STATED IN THE RSF LINKS YOU PROVIDED ABOVE!! I suggest you read thru the links fully before posting them next time.

Now what a great choice, stay in place and hope SIP works and smoke doesn’t destroy your lungs, or get trapped on clogged roads, exits blocked by fire!!!

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/04/28/perspective/9_52_414_20_07.txt

2 can tango if you question my credibility. I’m in the insurance business. Not sure your background. You seem to be cherry picking info by some advocates of Shelter-in-place.

I, like many others have exclude 4S Rancho Bernardo, Ramona, and other areas for consideration for place of residence. These areas have a high risk of future wildfires.

Thank you for your vigorous, albeit biased defense of your community.

[NewtoSanDiego]

4Sbuyer2002,

Wow, you sound like a real wildfire expert. Do you have an advanced degree in Fire Science and Meteorology?

By your Monkier, you seem to have a vested interesting in pumping up the wildfire safety of 4S. You own a home there!

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo is in a HIGH Wildfire risk zone. No gettting around it. Other areas in San Diego county have much lower wildfire risk, JUST LOOK AT THE MAPS! You can subscribe to it to get additional details. As noted earlier, new maps are due by summer.

http://www.sanborn.com/solutions/ca_wildfires_2007.asp

Fact: 4S Rancho Bernardo had a mandatory evacuation order during the 2007 wildfire that clogged exits out of the community.

The whole shelter-in-place concept is controversial. As stated above, SIP puts respiratory sensitivity individuals like children and older adults at high risk smoke inhalation. THIS WAS STATED IN THE RSF LINKS YOU PROVIDED ABOVE!! I suggest you read thru the links fully before posting them next time.

Now what a great choice, stay in place and hope SIP works and smoke doesn’t destroy your lungs, or get trapped on clogged roads, exits blocked by fire!!!

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/04/28/perspective/9_52_414_20_07.txt

2 can tango if you question my credibility. I’m in the insurance business. Not sure your background. You seem to be cherry picking info by some advocates of Shelter-in-place.

I, like many others have exclude 4S Rancho Bernardo, Ramona, and other areas for consideration for place of residence. These areas have a high risk of future wildfires.

Thank you for your vigorous, albeit biased defense of your community.

[4Sbuyer2002]

Fact: The entire San Diego area was affected by smoke. Last time I checked smoke is blown by wind to areas not affected by the fire from which the smoke came. This concept is so basic and simplistic that even a child gets it but yet I need to explain it to you.

Fact: “Wild Fire Expert” . . . no I am not. But these people are . . .

Local fire officials say the unscathed homes speak for themselves.

“I believe shelter in place made the difference in this case,” Santa Fe Fire Marshal Cliff Hunter said (uh . . . that would be a loca “Fire” official that knows) “The bottom line is if you build appropriately and place the houses appropriately, and the landscaping and vegetation are appropriate, the homes should still be there.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Another expert . . .

“People do not die in sprinkled homes,” said Samuel Oates, San Diego’s fire marshal.

“Sprinklers could reduce the average cost of fire insurance by about $900 a year, from $1,500 to $600, said Chris Smith, a vice president of Fireman’s Fund, one of the state’s largest business-property insurers.”

“We’re a strong supporter of sprinklers. It’s lifesaving,” Smith said.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20070408-9999-1n8sprinkle.html

Fact: The “fire maps” are outdated and simplistic. The community within this area, 4S, is safe. The surrounding areas outside of 4S are not as safe. You refer to a map of an entire area. I am referring to a specific community in that area. Stare at the map till you blue in the face if you want. But the experts declare it is safe stay put if you live in 4S. Another basic and simple concept (Map of large area vs. community within that area). I guess I need to state the obvious. Here it is.

The five communities, all within the Rancho Santa Fe fire district, are the only ones in the county where the plan has been adopted.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Sure lots of “areas” on a map in San Diego county are at high risk of fire. The point here is that the community of 4S is better protected than the surrounding area.

Insurance Business??? I don’t get your point here. You say “you are in the insurance business.” My agent has a rusty barely working stapler which has been in the “insurance business” business for 15 years sitting on my agents desk stapling paper . . . its still just a damn stapler despite 15 years in the insurance business.

Mandatory Evacuations are triggered via reverse 911 which in turn is triggered via entire “areas” served by a telephone exchange. The computer just loads the numbers in an area and calls. See my previous comment why the area is not the relevant term but the specific community built according to the fire safe standards.

Final Fact: How many homes in 4S Ranch burned in the last wild fire??? Anyone . . . Anyone . . . worst fire in So. Cal history . . . Anyone. Answear is ZERO. This fact more than any other speaks for itself.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Fact: The entire San Diego area was affected by smoke. Last time I checked smoke is blown by wind to areas not affected by the fire from which the smoke came. This concept is so basic and simplistic that even a child gets it but yet I need to explain it to you.

Fact: “Wild Fire Expert” . . . no I am not. But these people are . . .

Local fire officials say the unscathed homes speak for themselves.

“I believe shelter in place made the difference in this case,” Santa Fe Fire Marshal Cliff Hunter said (uh . . . that would be a loca “Fire” official that knows) “The bottom line is if you build appropriately and place the houses appropriately, and the landscaping and vegetation are appropriate, the homes should still be there.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Another expert . . .

“People do not die in sprinkled homes,” said Samuel Oates, San Diego’s fire marshal.

“Sprinklers could reduce the average cost of fire insurance by about $900 a year, from $1,500 to $600, said Chris Smith, a vice president of Fireman’s Fund, one of the state’s largest business-property insurers.”

“We’re a strong supporter of sprinklers. It’s lifesaving,” Smith said.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20070408-9999-1n8sprinkle.html

Fact: The “fire maps” are outdated and simplistic. The community within this area, 4S, is safe. The surrounding areas outside of 4S are not as safe. You refer to a map of an entire area. I am referring to a specific community in that area. Stare at the map till you blue in the face if you want. But the experts declare it is safe stay put if you live in 4S. Another basic and simple concept (Map of large area vs. community within that area). I guess I need to state the obvious. Here it is.

The five communities, all within the Rancho Santa Fe fire district, are the only ones in the county where the plan has been adopted.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Sure lots of “areas” on a map in San Diego county are at high risk of fire. The point here is that the community of 4S is better protected than the surrounding area.

Insurance Business??? I don’t get your point here. You say “you are in the insurance business.” My agent has a rusty barely working stapler which has been in the “insurance business” business for 15 years sitting on my agents desk stapling paper . . . its still just a damn stapler despite 15 years in the insurance business.

Mandatory Evacuations are triggered via reverse 911 which in turn is triggered via entire “areas” served by a telephone exchange. The computer just loads the numbers in an area and calls. See my previous comment why the area is not the relevant term but the specific community built according to the fire safe standards.

Final Fact: How many homes in 4S Ranch burned in the last wild fire??? Anyone . . . Anyone . . . worst fire in So. Cal history . . . Anyone. Answear is ZERO. This fact more than any other speaks for itself.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Fact: The entire San Diego area was affected by smoke. Last time I checked smoke is blown by wind to areas not affected by the fire from which the smoke came. This concept is so basic and simplistic that even a child gets it but yet I need to explain it to you.

Fact: “Wild Fire Expert” . . . no I am not. But these people are . . .

Local fire officials say the unscathed homes speak for themselves.

“I believe shelter in place made the difference in this case,” Santa Fe Fire Marshal Cliff Hunter said (uh . . . that would be a loca “Fire” official that knows) “The bottom line is if you build appropriately and place the houses appropriately, and the landscaping and vegetation are appropriate, the homes should still be there.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Another expert . . .

“People do not die in sprinkled homes,” said Samuel Oates, San Diego’s fire marshal.

“Sprinklers could reduce the average cost of fire insurance by about $900 a year, from $1,500 to $600, said Chris Smith, a vice president of Fireman’s Fund, one of the state’s largest business-property insurers.”

“We’re a strong supporter of sprinklers. It’s lifesaving,” Smith said.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20070408-9999-1n8sprinkle.html

Fact: The “fire maps” are outdated and simplistic. The community within this area, 4S, is safe. The surrounding areas outside of 4S are not as safe. You refer to a map of an entire area. I am referring to a specific community in that area. Stare at the map till you blue in the face if you want. But the experts declare it is safe stay put if you live in 4S. Another basic and simple concept (Map of large area vs. community within that area). I guess I need to state the obvious. Here it is.

The five communities, all within the Rancho Santa Fe fire district, are the only ones in the county where the plan has been adopted.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Sure lots of “areas” on a map in San Diego county are at high risk of fire. The point here is that the community of 4S is better protected than the surrounding area.

Insurance Business??? I don’t get your point here. You say “you are in the insurance business.” My agent has a rusty barely working stapler which has been in the “insurance business” business for 15 years sitting on my agents desk stapling paper . . . its still just a damn stapler despite 15 years in the insurance business.

Mandatory Evacuations are triggered via reverse 911 which in turn is triggered via entire “areas” served by a telephone exchange. The computer just loads the numbers in an area and calls. See my previous comment why the area is not the relevant term but the specific community built according to the fire safe standards.

Final Fact: How many homes in 4S Ranch burned in the last wild fire??? Anyone . . . Anyone . . . worst fire in So. Cal history . . . Anyone. Answear is ZERO. This fact more than any other speaks for itself.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Fact: The entire San Diego area was affected by smoke. Last time I checked smoke is blown by wind to areas not affected by the fire from which the smoke came. This concept is so basic and simplistic that even a child gets it but yet I need to explain it to you.

Fact: “Wild Fire Expert” . . . no I am not. But these people are . . .

Local fire officials say the unscathed homes speak for themselves.

“I believe shelter in place made the difference in this case,” Santa Fe Fire Marshal Cliff Hunter said (uh . . . that would be a loca “Fire” official that knows) “The bottom line is if you build appropriately and place the houses appropriately, and the landscaping and vegetation are appropriate, the homes should still be there.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Another expert . . .

“People do not die in sprinkled homes,” said Samuel Oates, San Diego’s fire marshal.

“Sprinklers could reduce the average cost of fire insurance by about $900 a year, from $1,500 to $600, said Chris Smith, a vice president of Fireman’s Fund, one of the state’s largest business-property insurers.”

“We’re a strong supporter of sprinklers. It’s lifesaving,” Smith said.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20070408-9999-1n8sprinkle.html

Fact: The “fire maps” are outdated and simplistic. The community within this area, 4S, is safe. The surrounding areas outside of 4S are not as safe. You refer to a map of an entire area. I am referring to a specific community in that area. Stare at the map till you blue in the face if you want. But the experts declare it is safe stay put if you live in 4S. Another basic and simple concept (Map of large area vs. community within that area). I guess I need to state the obvious. Here it is.

The five communities, all within the Rancho Santa Fe fire district, are the only ones in the county where the plan has been adopted.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Sure lots of “areas” on a map in San Diego county are at high risk of fire. The point here is that the community of 4S is better protected than the surrounding area.

Insurance Business??? I don’t get your point here. You say “you are in the insurance business.” My agent has a rusty barely working stapler which has been in the “insurance business” business for 15 years sitting on my agents desk stapling paper . . . its still just a damn stapler despite 15 years in the insurance business.

Mandatory Evacuations are triggered via reverse 911 which in turn is triggered via entire “areas” served by a telephone exchange. The computer just loads the numbers in an area and calls. See my previous comment why the area is not the relevant term but the specific community built according to the fire safe standards.

Final Fact: How many homes in 4S Ranch burned in the last wild fire??? Anyone . . . Anyone . . . worst fire in So. Cal history . . . Anyone. Answear is ZERO. This fact more than any other speaks for itself.

grateful owner . . . .

[4Sbuyer2002]

Fact: The entire San Diego area was affected by smoke. Last time I checked smoke is blown by wind to areas not affected by the fire from which the smoke came. This concept is so basic and simplistic that even a child gets it but yet I need to explain it to you.

Fact: “Wild Fire Expert” . . . no I am not. But these people are . . .

Local fire officials say the unscathed homes speak for themselves.

“I believe shelter in place made the difference in this case,” Santa Fe Fire Marshal Cliff Hunter said (uh . . . that would be a loca “Fire” official that knows) “The bottom line is if you build appropriately and place the houses appropriately, and the landscaping and vegetation are appropriate, the homes should still be there.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Another expert . . .

“People do not die in sprinkled homes,” said Samuel Oates, San Diego’s fire marshal.

“Sprinklers could reduce the average cost of fire insurance by about $900 a year, from $1,500 to $600, said Chris Smith, a vice president of Fireman’s Fund, one of the state’s largest business-property insurers.”

“We’re a strong supporter of sprinklers. It’s lifesaving,” Smith said.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20070408-9999-1n8sprinkle.html

Fact: The “fire maps” are outdated and simplistic. The community within this area, 4S, is safe. The surrounding areas outside of 4S are not as safe. You refer to a map of an entire area. I am referring to a specific community in that area. Stare at the map till you blue in the face if you want. But the experts declare it is safe stay put if you live in 4S. Another basic and simple concept (Map of large area vs. community within that area). I guess I need to state the obvious. Here it is.

The five communities, all within the Rancho Santa Fe fire district, are the only ones in the county where the plan has been adopted.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071025/news_1n25stay.html#

Sure lots of “areas” on a map in San Diego county are at high risk of fire. The point here is that the community of 4S is better protected than the surrounding area.

Insurance Business??? I don’t get your point here. You say “you are in the insurance business.” My agent has a rusty barely working stapler which has been in the “insurance business” business for 15 years sitting on my agents desk stapling paper . . . its still just a damn stapler despite 15 years in the insurance business.

Mandatory Evacuations are triggered via reverse 911 which in turn is triggered via entire “areas” served by a telephone exchange. The computer just loads the numbers in an area and calls. See my previous comment why the area is not the relevant term but the specific community built according to the fire safe standards.

Final Fact: How many homes in 4S Ranch burned in the last wild fire??? Anyone . . . Anyone . . . worst fire in So. Cal history . . . Anyone. Answear is ZERO. This fact more than any other speaks for itself.

grateful owner . . . .

[NewtoSanDiego]

When new wildfire maps are updated this summer, I guess we’ll see. I’ll make sure to provide an update to this site.

For those looking into buying property areas of high wildfire risk, please take insurance costs and overall higher risk under consideration.

Overall, I’m not willing to go thru the aggravation, cost, uncertainty of living in an area of high wildfire risk. There are other areas of San Diego county that have much lower wildfire risk.

When I was out in 4S last year, there were vast swaths of burned areas right next to the community. Nearly 1000 homes were destroyed in Rancho Bernardo and only a few have been rebuilt. Rebuilding a home is not something I ever want to go thru.

SHELTER-IN-PLACE IS NOT A SOLUTION TO ELIMINATE WILDFIRE RISK IN HIGH WILDFIRE RISK AREAS.

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/04/28/perspective/9_52_414_20_07.txt

“San Diego County Department of Planning and Land Use calls SIP a “last resort” measure if adequate evacuation routes cannot be built. This is the antithesis of a planned Go Early policy, and imposes SIP on an at-risk population. SIP is apparently gaining traction in the U.S. wildland firefighting community. Stay and Defend or Go Early is a workable policy. However, the San Diego version of SIP as defined by the planning and land use department is incomplete and unsatisfactory.

There are established techniques for planning community evacuation strategies considering population size and distribution, roadway layout, trigger zones, etc. The fire protection codes in San Diego County ignore all of this, requiring only a perfunctory number of roads in and out, regardless the size of the community. The fallacy of this is obvious from a simple example. If 5,000 vehicles are to be evacuated from a community of 2,500 homes at 800 vehicles per hour for each lane of traffic, and there are four outbound lanes, then it would take 5,000/3,200, or a minimum of 1.5 hours to evacuate. A more realistic minimum evacuation time would be under 30 minutes, requiring increasing the number of outbound lanes to at least 12, or reducing the number of homes to at most 800, or something in between. Thus, evacuation planning may influence the very design of a community, and should be an integral part of the Department of Planning and Land Use process.”

[Author]

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