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  • January 23, 2008 at 11:57 PM #142134
    Eugene
    Participant

    Your argument was that if owning would cost you the same as rent, then why not buy? Well, my argument to that was if you buy today when prices are steadily dropping rather than waiting a year (or more) that second year and thereafter, you’re gonna lose money. Period.

    The argument is this. If we’re back to fundamentals, prices may continue dropping but only at the expense of rising interest rates. You can buy a house today for $500k, agree to pay $3000/month, and live in it for 20 years, and sell it for (let’s say)$1 mil. Alternatively, you can rent for two more years, buy the same house for $400k, end up paying the same $3000/month, live in it for 18 years, and sell it for $1 mil. Net result is the same.

    And if you think that you may have to sell after a few years, you should not buy a house in the first place.

    January 23, 2008 at 11:57 PM #141812
    drunkle
    Participant

    asian:

    but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

    consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

    January 23, 2008 at 11:57 PM #142038
    drunkle
    Participant

    asian:

    but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

    consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

    January 23, 2008 at 11:57 PM #142052
    drunkle
    Participant

    asian:

    but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

    consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

    January 23, 2008 at 11:57 PM #142075
    drunkle
    Participant

    asian:

    but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

    consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

    January 23, 2008 at 11:57 PM #142139
    drunkle
    Participant

    asian:

    but that’s my point. right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

    consider as well, the question of rent. many if not most people have mom and pop to fall back on. if they lose their jobs, lose their homes, they move in with the folks. that’s what was happening in the 90’s. if these people all vacate, the fundamentals shift.

    January 24, 2008 at 12:05 AM #141816
    an
    Participant

    drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

    January 24, 2008 at 12:05 AM #142041
    an
    Participant

    drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

    January 24, 2008 at 12:05 AM #142056
    an
    Participant

    drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

    January 24, 2008 at 12:05 AM #142081
    an
    Participant

    drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

    January 24, 2008 at 12:05 AM #142144
    an
    Participant

    drunkle, I think we both agree that fundamental is where it’s at. I agree with you that if fundamental shifts, then we will no longer be at fundamental. I also agree that today, we are not at fundamental. Also, not all jobs will be affected by the bubble melt down. The people with RE related jobs will not support fundamental, but other will. That’s why it’s called fundamental. You can buy a house at fundamental and still double/triple up to afford a place to live, if it’s cheaper to buy than rent. THAT, is fundamental.

    January 24, 2008 at 12:07 AM #141820
    Eugene
    Participant

    right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

    That’s a circular argument … The economy is unstable because housing prices are declining. Therefore, housing prices will keep declining more.

    Conversely, if housing prices rebound this spring because of ultra-low mortgage rates, the economy will get back on track.

    January 24, 2008 at 12:07 AM #142046
    Eugene
    Participant

    right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

    That’s a circular argument … The economy is unstable because housing prices are declining. Therefore, housing prices will keep declining more.

    Conversely, if housing prices rebound this spring because of ultra-low mortgage rates, the economy will get back on track.

    January 24, 2008 at 12:07 AM #142061
    Eugene
    Participant

    right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

    That’s a circular argument … The economy is unstable because housing prices are declining. Therefore, housing prices will keep declining more.

    Conversely, if housing prices rebound this spring because of ultra-low mortgage rates, the economy will get back on track.

    January 24, 2008 at 12:07 AM #142085
    Eugene
    Participant

    right now, the economy is feeling some tremors of instability. all those RE jobs wiped out… those people are not going to be in the mood for supporting fundamentals…

    That’s a circular argument … The economy is unstable because housing prices are declining. Therefore, housing prices will keep declining more.

    Conversely, if housing prices rebound this spring because of ultra-low mortgage rates, the economy will get back on track.

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