4.25 Yrs. SoCal RE Inventory – Mr. Mortgage’s New Video on SoCal

[capeman]

45% are cash out refi's meaning what do the borrowers have to gain by staying, they already cashed out.

I think this is going to be a huge driver once market capitulation happens.  Honestly if many of the defaults are not due to resets but people just giving up before the first reset then by EOY these rates should beat the parabolic curve.  You're 4.25 years may be very conservative if this happens and lending dries up even further.

Nice data MM or Hedgie!

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

I agree with Mr. capeman. The 4.25 years could turn out conservative. Many high-income salaried fools in San Diego bought multiple homes at the peak and will help fulfill that inventory statistic in the near future.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

I agree with Mr. capeman. The 4.25 years could turn out conservative. Many high-income salaried fools in San Diego bought multiple homes at the peak and will help fulfill that inventory statistic in the near future.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

I agree with Mr. capeman. The 4.25 years could turn out conservative. Many high-income salaried fools in San Diego bought multiple homes at the peak and will help fulfill that inventory statistic in the near future.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

I agree with Mr. capeman. The 4.25 years could turn out conservative. Many high-income salaried fools in San Diego bought multiple homes at the peak and will help fulfill that inventory statistic in the near future.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

I agree with Mr. capeman. The 4.25 years could turn out conservative. Many high-income salaried fools in San Diego bought multiple homes at the peak and will help fulfill that inventory statistic in the near future.

[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

[temeculaguy]

You win, I read all of the data from the link and couldn’t find any holes to punch in it. I still think the stripper in granny panties joke was funny.

So what now? What is your best guess on timing this, there will be an end date and there will be a floor. In my hood I am already seeing instances of near rent neutral properties, but they sell within a day or two when they pop up, fortunately for me I haven’t liked any of them enough to jump in, I’m a very picky scavenger. I can find half off peak homes all day, I am doubtful I will find then for 25 cents on the dollar, what percentage from peak do you think things will settle at and when?

Here are two case studies and homes that do not have any big detractors for me, homes that I would buy today if I didn’t know what I know, these are for living in and not for investment purposes. Both are in the top 10% as far as neighborhoods go in my area and don’t have as many half off homes as other tracts just a mile or two away.

First one is listed at 440k, bought new for 780k 18 months ago. Bigger than I need but if it were to fall another 140k, it would end up costing me what I pay in rent for something a fraction of the size. Considering that I almost paid 400k for a townhouse in the same zip code two years ago, it has a near bottom feel to it.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45189-Rideau-St-92592/home/12502219

Second one, more along the lines of the size I need, typical 4/3 tract house, listed at 280k, bought new in 2002 for 250k and resold in 2005 for 490k, an offer of 250k today would make this cheaper than my rental. I’ve visited it three times but I believe there is another big drop on the horizon so I’m holding off.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33242-Morning-View-Dr-92592/home/6363263

If that one falls to or below 200k, we will have reached 1998 pricing in real terms, not inflation adjusted. At some point things will have hit “Texas Pricing” and that would be a floor in my opinion.

While I haven’t decided how to take advantage of the current disaster in R/E (more house or lower payment or somewhere in between) I have decided to wait until the summer is over and re-evaluate, but I would like your opinion.

TG

[drunkle]

well done hedgie. you are a powerful and attractive man.

now if only your hrb call would come to pass. note, there was a 2k spike in jan 09 $10 puts last week.

[drunkle]

well done hedgie. you are a powerful and attractive man.

now if only your hrb call would come to pass. note, there was a 2k spike in jan 09 $10 puts last week.

[drunkle]

well done hedgie. you are a powerful and attractive man.

now if only your hrb call would come to pass. note, there was a 2k spike in jan 09 $10 puts last week.

[drunkle]

well done hedgie. you are a powerful and attractive man.

now if only your hrb call would come to pass. note, there was a 2k spike in jan 09 $10 puts last week.

[Author]

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