401k advice

[Coronita]

Why would you expect to see a MC simulation?

 

Actually, speaking of which. Does anyone know where I can get an MC simulator for cheap? I suppose I could sort of dig one out of open source, but I've tried a few and they run too slow.

 

[Coronita]

Why would you expect to see a MC simulation?

 

Actually, speaking of which. Does anyone know where I can get an MC simulator for cheap? I suppose I could sort of dig one out of open source, but I've tried a few and they run too slow.

 

[Coronita]

flu:

one of the things, assumptions in this thread has been the ability to sock away that much money. those like yourself who can do that probably are doing the right thing, at least in terms of available options (and like i said, i have no idea what other "conservative" and "safe" options there are). investing in real estate just came off the top of my head as an alternative, i have no idea why (housing blog? what? where am i…)… but with regards to re investing, i was thinking of the income potential and not the bubble potential. with 150k socked away, i would think that you could have qualified to buy investment props back in the day if you had kept liquidity…

you mention your company offerings; that colors my view significantly as my company offerings are slim and none; no co match (anymore) and limited fund option

 

I guess again, here I'm old fashion. I'm a believer that very few people can ever time the market.

Case in point. Back when I first started working. My salary was like $40k. Two-bedroom townhomes in La Jolla were selling for $400k. I had no savings, so $400k was pretty much out of my league. At the same time, by apartment rent was like $660/month. So the entire rent versus buy decision was again rent was so much more favorable than buying. I could have probably asked my parents for a downpayment, but I didn't want to. It was far easier to sock away stuff in a 401k than to put it in a savings waiting to buy. My after tax paycheck already looked pretty pathetic so socking what little I had away after tax was basically like socking away lunch money. Anyway, my 401k funds weren't that grate. As you can see, it only did like 7%, not the 10% or 15% often think they can do. Sometimes having a great 401k plan does not equate to the number of fund options. I had one employer that had only about 6 funds, but they were primarily indexes.That one employer was good. Everyone else does the standard fidelity crap.

 

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I really haven't seen a time when buy really equated to renting in CA. Buying was always more expensive than renting. Just it seems like lately, that difference has gotten significantly out of hands. I'm not convinced I'll ever see when in a specific location property will go with a conventional 30year mortgage at the same cost as rent. It seems like the perception is that all else being the same, buying would be more desirable that renting. So to me, it seems like there is some inherent "value" associated with buying which would put a slight premium on owning.Then again, I'm too young and only lived through 1 recession, 1 stock market crash, and never lived through a depression, so I wouldn't know.

 

There's the other extreme side of me. Which is saying, perhaps real estate is not going to be a good investment for the next 15-20 years. Perhaps this time it is different. The world has changed. U.S. isn't growing anymore, and with that, why would RE in U.S. ever appreciate in the next 15-20 years, until we get back on track? Well, if that's the case. If I have to wait 15-20 years to recoup some decent returns on an investment, it's not much of an investment to me.

Let's say that real estate doesn't appreciate in the next 15-20 years?  I'll be over 50 years old by then. 50 YEARS OLD. I'm not going to hold by breath on that one asset class for financial stability. So again, while I'd love to by investment property if it makes sense, I'm not holding my breathe.

Sorry, I'm a believer that some people who are just born at a certain time just aren't born at the right time. And there's nothing you can do about it. I feel sorry for folks like me from Gen X. I think we got accustomed to all the life luxuries without really having to work hard for it. But if you take a step back, you'll see that we had pretty bad timing at everything. We graduated at a time near the end of a recession when finding a job wasn't easy. We get caught up in the end of a tech boom at at a time when we are actually useful labor in the workforce. And then when we turn into are late twenties and can just afford  RE, the market goes up insane, making affordability an issue. And some of us make even worse decisions by participating in the RE madness. Oh well.

 

 

[Coronita]

flu:

one of the things, assumptions in this thread has been the ability to sock away that much money. those like yourself who can do that probably are doing the right thing, at least in terms of available options (and like i said, i have no idea what other "conservative" and "safe" options there are). investing in real estate just came off the top of my head as an alternative, i have no idea why (housing blog? what? where am i…)… but with regards to re investing, i was thinking of the income potential and not the bubble potential. with 150k socked away, i would think that you could have qualified to buy investment props back in the day if you had kept liquidity…

you mention your company offerings; that colors my view significantly as my company offerings are slim and none; no co match (anymore) and limited fund option

 

I guess again, here I'm old fashion. I'm a believer that very few people can ever time the market.

Case in point. Back when I first started working. My salary was like $40k. Two-bedroom townhomes in La Jolla were selling for $400k. I had no savings, so $400k was pretty much out of my league. At the same time, by apartment rent was like $660/month. So the entire rent versus buy decision was again rent was so much more favorable than buying. I could have probably asked my parents for a downpayment, but I didn't want to. It was far easier to sock away stuff in a 401k than to put it in a savings waiting to buy. My after tax paycheck already looked pretty pathetic so socking what little I had away after tax was basically like socking away lunch money. Anyway, my 401k funds weren't that grate. As you can see, it only did like 7%, not the 10% or 15% often think they can do. Sometimes having a great 401k plan does not equate to the number of fund options. I had one employer that had only about 6 funds, but they were primarily indexes.That one employer was good. Everyone else does the standard fidelity crap.

 

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I really haven't seen a time when buy really equated to renting in CA. Buying was always more expensive than renting. Just it seems like lately, that difference has gotten significantly out of hands. I'm not convinced I'll ever see when in a specific location property will go with a conventional 30year mortgage at the same cost as rent. It seems like the perception is that all else being the same, buying would be more desirable that renting. So to me, it seems like there is some inherent "value" associated with buying which would put a slight premium on owning.Then again, I'm too young and only lived through 1 recession, 1 stock market crash, and never lived through a depression, so I wouldn't know.

 

There's the other extreme side of me. Which is saying, perhaps real estate is not going to be a good investment for the next 15-20 years. Perhaps this time it is different. The world has changed. U.S. isn't growing anymore, and with that, why would RE in U.S. ever appreciate in the next 15-20 years, until we get back on track? Well, if that's the case. If I have to wait 15-20 years to recoup some decent returns on an investment, it's not much of an investment to me.

Let's say that real estate doesn't appreciate in the next 15-20 years?  I'll be over 50 years old by then. 50 YEARS OLD. I'm not going to hold by breath on that one asset class for financial stability. So again, while I'd love to by investment property if it makes sense, I'm not holding my breathe.

Sorry, I'm a believer that some people who are just born at a certain time just aren't born at the right time. And there's nothing you can do about it. I feel sorry for folks like me from Gen X. I think we got accustomed to all the life luxuries without really having to work hard for it. But if you take a step back, you'll see that we had pretty bad timing at everything. We graduated at a time near the end of a recession when finding a job wasn't easy. We get caught up in the end of a tech boom at at a time when we are actually useful labor in the workforce. And then when we turn into are late twenties and can just afford  RE, the market goes up insane, making affordability an issue. And some of us make even worse decisions by participating in the RE madness. Oh well.

 

 

[Coronita]

flu:

one of the things, assumptions in this thread has been the ability to sock away that much money. those like yourself who can do that probably are doing the right thing, at least in terms of available options (and like i said, i have no idea what other "conservative" and "safe" options there are). investing in real estate just came off the top of my head as an alternative, i have no idea why (housing blog? what? where am i…)… but with regards to re investing, i was thinking of the income potential and not the bubble potential. with 150k socked away, i would think that you could have qualified to buy investment props back in the day if you had kept liquidity…

you mention your company offerings; that colors my view significantly as my company offerings are slim and none; no co match (anymore) and limited fund option

 

I guess again, here I'm old fashion. I'm a believer that very few people can ever time the market.

Case in point. Back when I first started working. My salary was like $40k. Two-bedroom townhomes in La Jolla were selling for $400k. I had no savings, so $400k was pretty much out of my league. At the same time, by apartment rent was like $660/month. So the entire rent versus buy decision was again rent was so much more favorable than buying. I could have probably asked my parents for a downpayment, but I didn't want to. It was far easier to sock away stuff in a 401k than to put it in a savings waiting to buy. My after tax paycheck already looked pretty pathetic so socking what little I had away after tax was basically like socking away lunch money. Anyway, my 401k funds weren't that grate. As you can see, it only did like 7%, not the 10% or 15% often think they can do. Sometimes having a great 401k plan does not equate to the number of fund options. I had one employer that had only about 6 funds, but they were primarily indexes.That one employer was good. Everyone else does the standard fidelity crap.

 

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I really haven't seen a time when buy really equated to renting in CA. Buying was always more expensive than renting. Just it seems like lately, that difference has gotten significantly out of hands. I'm not convinced I'll ever see when in a specific location property will go with a conventional 30year mortgage at the same cost as rent. It seems like the perception is that all else being the same, buying would be more desirable that renting. So to me, it seems like there is some inherent "value" associated with buying which would put a slight premium on owning.Then again, I'm too young and only lived through 1 recession, 1 stock market crash, and never lived through a depression, so I wouldn't know.

 

There's the other extreme side of me. Which is saying, perhaps real estate is not going to be a good investment for the next 15-20 years. Perhaps this time it is different. The world has changed. U.S. isn't growing anymore, and with that, why would RE in U.S. ever appreciate in the next 15-20 years, until we get back on track? Well, if that's the case. If I have to wait 15-20 years to recoup some decent returns on an investment, it's not much of an investment to me.

Let's say that real estate doesn't appreciate in the next 15-20 years?  I'll be over 50 years old by then. 50 YEARS OLD. I'm not going to hold by breath on that one asset class for financial stability. So again, while I'd love to by investment property if it makes sense, I'm not holding my breathe.

Sorry, I'm a believer that some people who are just born at a certain time just aren't born at the right time. And there's nothing you can do about it. I feel sorry for folks like me from Gen X. I think we got accustomed to all the life luxuries without really having to work hard for it. But if you take a step back, you'll see that we had pretty bad timing at everything. We graduated at a time near the end of a recession when finding a job wasn't easy. We get caught up in the end of a tech boom at at a time when we are actually useful labor in the workforce. And then when we turn into are late twenties and can just afford  RE, the market goes up insane, making affordability an issue. And some of us make even worse decisions by participating in the RE madness. Oh well.

 

 

[Coronita]

flu:

one of the things, assumptions in this thread has been the ability to sock away that much money. those like yourself who can do that probably are doing the right thing, at least in terms of available options (and like i said, i have no idea what other "conservative" and "safe" options there are). investing in real estate just came off the top of my head as an alternative, i have no idea why (housing blog? what? where am i…)… but with regards to re investing, i was thinking of the income potential and not the bubble potential. with 150k socked away, i would think that you could have qualified to buy investment props back in the day if you had kept liquidity…

you mention your company offerings; that colors my view significantly as my company offerings are slim and none; no co match (anymore) and limited fund option

 

I guess again, here I'm old fashion. I'm a believer that very few people can ever time the market.

Case in point. Back when I first started working. My salary was like $40k. Two-bedroom townhomes in La Jolla were selling for $400k. I had no savings, so $400k was pretty much out of my league. At the same time, by apartment rent was like $660/month. So the entire rent versus buy decision was again rent was so much more favorable than buying. I could have probably asked my parents for a downpayment, but I didn't want to. It was far easier to sock away stuff in a 401k than to put it in a savings waiting to buy. My after tax paycheck already looked pretty pathetic so socking what little I had away after tax was basically like socking away lunch money. Anyway, my 401k funds weren't that grate. As you can see, it only did like 7%, not the 10% or 15% often think they can do. Sometimes having a great 401k plan does not equate to the number of fund options. I had one employer that had only about 6 funds, but they were primarily indexes.That one employer was good. Everyone else does the standard fidelity crap.

 

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I really haven't seen a time when buy really equated to renting in CA. Buying was always more expensive than renting. Just it seems like lately, that difference has gotten significantly out of hands. I'm not convinced I'll ever see when in a specific location property will go with a conventional 30year mortgage at the same cost as rent. It seems like the perception is that all else being the same, buying would be more desirable that renting. So to me, it seems like there is some inherent "value" associated with buying which would put a slight premium on owning.Then again, I'm too young and only lived through 1 recession, 1 stock market crash, and never lived through a depression, so I wouldn't know.

 

There's the other extreme side of me. Which is saying, perhaps real estate is not going to be a good investment for the next 15-20 years. Perhaps this time it is different. The world has changed. U.S. isn't growing anymore, and with that, why would RE in U.S. ever appreciate in the next 15-20 years, until we get back on track? Well, if that's the case. If I have to wait 15-20 years to recoup some decent returns on an investment, it's not much of an investment to me.

Let's say that real estate doesn't appreciate in the next 15-20 years?  I'll be over 50 years old by then. 50 YEARS OLD. I'm not going to hold by breath on that one asset class for financial stability. So again, while I'd love to by investment property if it makes sense, I'm not holding my breathe.

Sorry, I'm a believer that some people who are just born at a certain time just aren't born at the right time. And there's nothing you can do about it. I feel sorry for folks like me from Gen X. I think we got accustomed to all the life luxuries without really having to work hard for it. But if you take a step back, you'll see that we had pretty bad timing at everything. We graduated at a time near the end of a recession when finding a job wasn't easy. We get caught up in the end of a tech boom at at a time when we are actually useful labor in the workforce. And then when we turn into are late twenties and can just afford  RE, the market goes up insane, making affordability an issue. And some of us make even worse decisions by participating in the RE madness. Oh well.

 

 

[Coronita]

flu:

one of the things, assumptions in this thread has been the ability to sock away that much money. those like yourself who can do that probably are doing the right thing, at least in terms of available options (and like i said, i have no idea what other "conservative" and "safe" options there are). investing in real estate just came off the top of my head as an alternative, i have no idea why (housing blog? what? where am i…)… but with regards to re investing, i was thinking of the income potential and not the bubble potential. with 150k socked away, i would think that you could have qualified to buy investment props back in the day if you had kept liquidity…

you mention your company offerings; that colors my view significantly as my company offerings are slim and none; no co match (anymore) and limited fund option

 

I guess again, here I'm old fashion. I'm a believer that very few people can ever time the market.

Case in point. Back when I first started working. My salary was like $40k. Two-bedroom townhomes in La Jolla were selling for $400k. I had no savings, so $400k was pretty much out of my league. At the same time, by apartment rent was like $660/month. So the entire rent versus buy decision was again rent was so much more favorable than buying. I could have probably asked my parents for a downpayment, but I didn't want to. It was far easier to sock away stuff in a 401k than to put it in a savings waiting to buy. My after tax paycheck already looked pretty pathetic so socking what little I had away after tax was basically like socking away lunch money. Anyway, my 401k funds weren't that grate. As you can see, it only did like 7%, not the 10% or 15% often think they can do. Sometimes having a great 401k plan does not equate to the number of fund options. I had one employer that had only about 6 funds, but they were primarily indexes.That one employer was good. Everyone else does the standard fidelity crap.

 

Anyway, I could be wrong, but I really haven't seen a time when buy really equated to renting in CA. Buying was always more expensive than renting. Just it seems like lately, that difference has gotten significantly out of hands. I'm not convinced I'll ever see when in a specific location property will go with a conventional 30year mortgage at the same cost as rent. It seems like the perception is that all else being the same, buying would be more desirable that renting. So to me, it seems like there is some inherent "value" associated with buying which would put a slight premium on owning.Then again, I'm too young and only lived through 1 recession, 1 stock market crash, and never lived through a depression, so I wouldn't know.

 

There's the other extreme side of me. Which is saying, perhaps real estate is not going to be a good investment for the next 15-20 years. Perhaps this time it is different. The world has changed. U.S. isn't growing anymore, and with that, why would RE in U.S. ever appreciate in the next 15-20 years, until we get back on track? Well, if that's the case. If I have to wait 15-20 years to recoup some decent returns on an investment, it's not much of an investment to me.

Let's say that real estate doesn't appreciate in the next 15-20 years?  I'll be over 50 years old by then. 50 YEARS OLD. I'm not going to hold by breath on that one asset class for financial stability. So again, while I'd love to by investment property if it makes sense, I'm not holding my breathe.

Sorry, I'm a believer that some people who are just born at a certain time just aren't born at the right time. And there's nothing you can do about it. I feel sorry for folks like me from Gen X. I think we got accustomed to all the life luxuries without really having to work hard for it. But if you take a step back, you'll see that we had pretty bad timing at everything. We graduated at a time near the end of a recession when finding a job wasn't easy. We get caught up in the end of a tech boom at at a time when we are actually useful labor in the workforce. And then when we turn into are late twenties and can just afford  RE, the market goes up insane, making affordability an issue. And some of us make even worse decisions by participating in the RE madness. Oh well.

 

 

[drunkle]

flu:

la jolla? on 40k? geez man… bankers hill back then was affordable, mission hills, ob, point loma…

even if the market is flat for 20 years, you’ll have built equity and raised rents 2% per year. eventually, you’ll have that sucker paid off and then it’s alllll gravyyyy.

my brother thinks he’s the smartest guy in the world because he was born in 70, out of college in 94ish, bought a condo in 98. that sucker appreciated 100% in a couple years and he moved into a cavernous stucco box in cv. timing? no way, smarts! course, he quit software and is now working for a “commercial real estate investor”…

me, i jumped from cee in 98 to join the dot com boom as an entry entry level “webmaster” making jack squat just so i could learn on the job and join the party… poof! left construction just as it kicked into boom town to join the dot bomb at 15 seconds left. talk about timing… shitty timing! note, i had taught a friend how to handle computers and ‘surf the web’ way back when. he told me we should get to the bay area and do the web thing back around 94… he split, i stayed in school…

timing, luck and a little risk taking. i’m doing well enough at my current job in internet/software and dont regret the switch (7am on the job site? punching clocks and digging ditches? pass). but…

[drunkle]

flu:

la jolla? on 40k? geez man… bankers hill back then was affordable, mission hills, ob, point loma…

even if the market is flat for 20 years, you’ll have built equity and raised rents 2% per year. eventually, you’ll have that sucker paid off and then it’s alllll gravyyyy.

my brother thinks he’s the smartest guy in the world because he was born in 70, out of college in 94ish, bought a condo in 98. that sucker appreciated 100% in a couple years and he moved into a cavernous stucco box in cv. timing? no way, smarts! course, he quit software and is now working for a “commercial real estate investor”…

me, i jumped from cee in 98 to join the dot com boom as an entry entry level “webmaster” making jack squat just so i could learn on the job and join the party… poof! left construction just as it kicked into boom town to join the dot bomb at 15 seconds left. talk about timing… shitty timing! note, i had taught a friend how to handle computers and ‘surf the web’ way back when. he told me we should get to the bay area and do the web thing back around 94… he split, i stayed in school…

timing, luck and a little risk taking. i’m doing well enough at my current job in internet/software and dont regret the switch (7am on the job site? punching clocks and digging ditches? pass). but…

[drunkle]

flu:

la jolla? on 40k? geez man… bankers hill back then was affordable, mission hills, ob, point loma…

even if the market is flat for 20 years, you’ll have built equity and raised rents 2% per year. eventually, you’ll have that sucker paid off and then it’s alllll gravyyyy.

my brother thinks he’s the smartest guy in the world because he was born in 70, out of college in 94ish, bought a condo in 98. that sucker appreciated 100% in a couple years and he moved into a cavernous stucco box in cv. timing? no way, smarts! course, he quit software and is now working for a “commercial real estate investor”…

me, i jumped from cee in 98 to join the dot com boom as an entry entry level “webmaster” making jack squat just so i could learn on the job and join the party… poof! left construction just as it kicked into boom town to join the dot bomb at 15 seconds left. talk about timing… shitty timing! note, i had taught a friend how to handle computers and ‘surf the web’ way back when. he told me we should get to the bay area and do the web thing back around 94… he split, i stayed in school…

timing, luck and a little risk taking. i’m doing well enough at my current job in internet/software and dont regret the switch (7am on the job site? punching clocks and digging ditches? pass). but…

[drunkle]

flu:

la jolla? on 40k? geez man… bankers hill back then was affordable, mission hills, ob, point loma…

even if the market is flat for 20 years, you’ll have built equity and raised rents 2% per year. eventually, you’ll have that sucker paid off and then it’s alllll gravyyyy.

my brother thinks he’s the smartest guy in the world because he was born in 70, out of college in 94ish, bought a condo in 98. that sucker appreciated 100% in a couple years and he moved into a cavernous stucco box in cv. timing? no way, smarts! course, he quit software and is now working for a “commercial real estate investor”…

me, i jumped from cee in 98 to join the dot com boom as an entry entry level “webmaster” making jack squat just so i could learn on the job and join the party… poof! left construction just as it kicked into boom town to join the dot bomb at 15 seconds left. talk about timing… shitty timing! note, i had taught a friend how to handle computers and ‘surf the web’ way back when. he told me we should get to the bay area and do the web thing back around 94… he split, i stayed in school…

timing, luck and a little risk taking. i’m doing well enough at my current job in internet/software and dont regret the switch (7am on the job site? punching clocks and digging ditches? pass). but…

[drunkle]

flu:

la jolla? on 40k? geez man… bankers hill back then was affordable, mission hills, ob, point loma…

even if the market is flat for 20 years, you’ll have built equity and raised rents 2% per year. eventually, you’ll have that sucker paid off and then it’s alllll gravyyyy.

my brother thinks he’s the smartest guy in the world because he was born in 70, out of college in 94ish, bought a condo in 98. that sucker appreciated 100% in a couple years and he moved into a cavernous stucco box in cv. timing? no way, smarts! course, he quit software and is now working for a “commercial real estate investor”…

me, i jumped from cee in 98 to join the dot com boom as an entry entry level “webmaster” making jack squat just so i could learn on the job and join the party… poof! left construction just as it kicked into boom town to join the dot bomb at 15 seconds left. talk about timing… shitty timing! note, i had taught a friend how to handle computers and ‘surf the web’ way back when. he told me we should get to the bay area and do the web thing back around 94… he split, i stayed in school…

timing, luck and a little risk taking. i’m doing well enough at my current job in internet/software and dont regret the switch (7am on the job site? punching clocks and digging ditches? pass). but…

[cooperthedog]

Actually, speaking of which. Does anyone know where I can get an MC simulator for cheap? I suppose I could sort of dig one out of open source, but I’ve tried a few and they run too slow.

In order of least cost (and unfortunately, most time):

Most, if not all, programming languages come with a rand() & stat/math libs. So, you could code and optimize one yourself. just kidding…

I’m assuming that you are modeling the problem in an MS Excel spreadsheet, and that using the built-in rand and stat functions are impractical and/or on-sheet simulations are very slooooooooow. If so, your cheapest route would be to use a free add-in, albeit with very limited features, such as:

http://caleb.wabash.edu/econometrics/EconometricsBook/Basic%20Tools/ExcelAddIns/MCSim.htm

If you require a large number of variables, availability and ease of choosing the appropriate distribution curve, sampling method, etc. you will need something more powerful (and costly, a few hundred to several thousand+).

Of course, if the problem isn’t modeled correctly, or if the distribution curve doesn’t fit your data set (or the MC outcomes are random and your dataset trends), the simulation won’t be much benefit. Garbage in, garbage out…

[cooperthedog]

Actually, speaking of which. Does anyone know where I can get an MC simulator for cheap? I suppose I could sort of dig one out of open source, but I’ve tried a few and they run too slow.

In order of least cost (and unfortunately, most time):

Most, if not all, programming languages come with a rand() & stat/math libs. So, you could code and optimize one yourself. just kidding…

I’m assuming that you are modeling the problem in an MS Excel spreadsheet, and that using the built-in rand and stat functions are impractical and/or on-sheet simulations are very slooooooooow. If so, your cheapest route would be to use a free add-in, albeit with very limited features, such as:

http://caleb.wabash.edu/econometrics/EconometricsBook/Basic%20Tools/ExcelAddIns/MCSim.htm

If you require a large number of variables, availability and ease of choosing the appropriate distribution curve, sampling method, etc. you will need something more powerful (and costly, a few hundred to several thousand+).

Of course, if the problem isn’t modeled correctly, or if the distribution curve doesn’t fit your data set (or the MC outcomes are random and your dataset trends), the simulation won’t be much benefit. Garbage in, garbage out…

[cooperthedog]

Actually, speaking of which. Does anyone know where I can get an MC simulator for cheap? I suppose I could sort of dig one out of open source, but I’ve tried a few and they run too slow.

In order of least cost (and unfortunately, most time):

Most, if not all, programming languages come with a rand() & stat/math libs. So, you could code and optimize one yourself. just kidding…

I’m assuming that you are modeling the problem in an MS Excel spreadsheet, and that using the built-in rand and stat functions are impractical and/or on-sheet simulations are very slooooooooow. If so, your cheapest route would be to use a free add-in, albeit with very limited features, such as:

http://caleb.wabash.edu/econometrics/EconometricsBook/Basic%20Tools/ExcelAddIns/MCSim.htm

If you require a large number of variables, availability and ease of choosing the appropriate distribution curve, sampling method, etc. you will need something more powerful (and costly, a few hundred to several thousand+).

Of course, if the problem isn’t modeled correctly, or if the distribution curve doesn’t fit your data set (or the MC outcomes are random and your dataset trends), the simulation won’t be much benefit. Garbage in, garbage out…

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