26% Loss in SEH at $200 sq ft

[diegodave]

I’ve been a long time student of piggington and a patient renter. I thank all the knowledgable contributors to the site for the time and info you provide.

I couldn’t help but post this listing in San Elijo Hills. I’m not a huge advocate of SEH due to its inconvenience to the outside world and its san marcos zip, but this may be a breakthrough listing for the area.

4 br 2.5 bath (although zillow says 5 br)
2691 sq. ft.
year blt: 2005 SFR
orig. purch. price: $729,990
orig purch date: 4/05

current listing price: $540,000
dom this time: 65

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-D720A7D1-1008_Brightwood_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

Can any of the experts provide some input on whether this is a good deal or just the beginning of the end?

Thanks again.

[temeculaguy]

I am not an expert nor did I even click on the link and I know the answer (I’ll bet you do too), it’s the beginning of end. I don’t know if I like the word “end,” houses won’t be free, it’s just a cycle, wasn’t the first, won’t be the last. It did some crazy things on the way up during this cycle, unknown but better than a 50% chance to do some crazy things on the way down as well. Had it been a “normal” up cycle, this would be a decent price, but it didn’t so this isn’t. Popcorn theory in full effect, just the first kernal, listen closely and you will hear more.

[temeculaguy]

I am not an expert nor did I even click on the link and I know the answer (I’ll bet you do too), it’s the beginning of end. I don’t know if I like the word “end,” houses won’t be free, it’s just a cycle, wasn’t the first, won’t be the last. It did some crazy things on the way up during this cycle, unknown but better than a 50% chance to do some crazy things on the way down as well. Had it been a “normal” up cycle, this would be a decent price, but it didn’t so this isn’t. Popcorn theory in full effect, just the first kernal, listen closely and you will hear more.

[North County Jim]

I know the house. It’s a terrible lot. Not only is it puny, but it’s right along Questhaven, which gets a decent amount of traffic.

The backyard is absolutely dominated by an unfinished swimming pool. Check out zillow for a bird’s-eye-view.

All that being said, this is a low price for the area and a harbinger of what’s to come. If you don’t mind the postage stamp lot and have the capital to finish the pool, then it’s probably a good deal today.

[bsrsharma]

low price for the area

Funny how you describe the house is a dump and then say its Jumbo price is low. $540K requires an income of at least $150K. I think it will be low price if I see $400K, which is what it deserves just for having a hole in the ground.

[farbet]

I believe there is a problem with this house. I think it was featured on another blog.Maybe sd realtor can look it up.
SEH will be a blood bath in a couple of months. THE Mello Roos is high and the reset next month …. Pain

[VoZangre]

Hot Butter will be needed….

[meadandale]

I wouldn’t touch this until it was at least $100k under it’s current price, especially if it has landscaping (and unfinished pool) issues.

Also, looks like the owner is in default on property taxes

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-D720A7D1-1008_Brightwood_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

[meadandale]

I wouldn’t touch this until it was at least $100k under it’s current price, especially if it has landscaping (and unfinished pool) issues.

Also, looks like the owner is in default on property taxes

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-D720A7D1-1008_Brightwood_Dr_San_Marcos_CA_92078

[diegodave]

Thanks for the info.

I haven’t seen the lot but the price was note worthy in comparison to what I saw a few months ago. I considered SEH a few years ago but then decided it was a trifecta; too far with too much traffic and poor access. After seeing this home I reconsidered for a blink of a moment but then thought to myself TRIFECTA.

The trifecta is also in affect in Eastlake, Otay, San Miguel Ranch. I made the mistake of living there for a few years and it’s amazing to see how it’s beginning to tumble but it makes sense to rational people.

My one bewonderment is the stock market’s continued upward movement. Is it being manipulated by the Feds or pushed upward by foreign investors and a weak dollar?

DiegoDave

[diegodave]

Thanks for the info.

I haven’t seen the lot but the price was note worthy in comparison to what I saw a few months ago. I considered SEH a few years ago but then decided it was a trifecta; too far with too much traffic and poor access. After seeing this home I reconsidered for a blink of a moment but then thought to myself TRIFECTA.

The trifecta is also in affect in Eastlake, Otay, San Miguel Ranch. I made the mistake of living there for a few years and it’s amazing to see how it’s beginning to tumble but it makes sense to rational people.

My one bewonderment is the stock market’s continued upward movement. Is it being manipulated by the Feds or pushed upward by foreign investors and a weak dollar?

DiegoDave

[VoZangre]

Hot Butter will be needed….

[farbet]

I believe there is a problem with this house. I think it was featured on another blog.Maybe sd realtor can look it up.
SEH will be a blood bath in a couple of months. THE Mello Roos is high and the reset next month …. Pain

[bsrsharma]

low price for the area

Funny how you describe the house is a dump and then say its Jumbo price is low. $540K requires an income of at least $150K. I think it will be low price if I see $400K, which is what it deserves just for having a hole in the ground.

[VoZangre]

Voices…

the more I read, the more I see what was being predicted by the local grizzlies to be occuring…

the same search criteria on various sights gets more hits because more houses are falling into that price threshold from above…

popcorn effect, well put, TG, well put.

Anyone else remember that single fomr the early seventies?
I think it was my first 45.

[VoZangre]

Voices…

the more I read, the more I see what was being predicted by the local grizzlies to be occuring…

the same search criteria on various sights gets more hits because more houses are falling into that price threshold from above…

popcorn effect, well put, TG, well put.

Anyone else remember that single fomr the early seventies?
I think it was my first 45.

[North County Jim]

I know the house. It’s a terrible lot. Not only is it puny, but it’s right along Questhaven, which gets a decent amount of traffic.

The backyard is absolutely dominated by an unfinished swimming pool. Check out zillow for a bird’s-eye-view.

All that being said, this is a low price for the area and a harbinger of what’s to come. If you don’t mind the postage stamp lot and have the capital to finish the pool, then it’s probably a good deal today.

[Author]

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