You really can’t count shale as oil. It’s a mining expedition that takes a lot of energy. There is a huge difference between the virgin oil fields of old that you would get back 100 barrels of oil for on barrel of energy expended to todays shale where a lot of it is at like 2 or 3 to 1 barrel. Some places it just takes to much energy and is not feasible. So that is a different world right there.
The other thing is it’s all about FLOW RATE. It doesn’t really matter how much is theoretically and tantalizingly in the ground. It’s a what rates you can produce it at. The world won’t ever produce more oil than it is producing now. The declines in old giant fields are too big. Some of the new shale plays will slow the overall decline but does not change the big picture that much.
We have been witnessing just such a dynamic playing out in the North American natural gas market in recent years, with a particular focus on the shale gas that is touted as being the key to energy independence. The hype over a supposed 100 year supply of cheap, clean energy has been pervasive. Vast sums of money have been committed as a result, despite very little critical evaluation of the real world prospects, at least in the public domain.
Thankfully there have been a few sober voices in the wilderness who were prepared to challenge the received wisdom, most notably Arthur Berman (whose superb work can be found at The Oil Drum) and Canadian gas expert David Hughes.
