You pretty much had it right with respect to the time of year cycle… I actually believe the “best” time in an annual cycle may be the July-September timeframe. I feel that way because you have the spring washouts (that didn’t sell because they priced poorly or have cruddy homes), and you have all the other people who lagged on listing in the spring and now are rushing to list prior to the end of the summer, so you have not totally lost all the inventory yet. However you still have the desperation factor as well so you kind of get the best of both worlds. By the time winter comes you do have alot of more desperate sellers but definitely not as much inventory… Not sure if that matters alot though…
Now one thing you need to think about as well… because of your relatively quick timeframe, a huge consequence to you will be the 10 year treasury yield. My point here is that if you really do “have” to buy before the year is out, the rate you get on your loan will have much more bearing then the price you pay for your home. That is because between now and the end of the year, I don’t think you will see a drastic differential in price in the areas you mentioned.
I guess also then alot of what I just said kind of depends on your ratio of financing to cash you are coming in with.
It goes without saying that you can get some decent size lots off of Via Rancho Pkwy. I have a client who has been looking around out near the San Pasqual Valley and such… There is a ton of stuff and some fairly nice places with nice amounts of land starting to get near the price range you have mentioned. There is ALSO a TON of more beater homes with big lots out there as well.
As far as Scripps/PQ/Poway/RB go, you can find places in the price range in these areas as well…Scripps will be tougher then the other 3 but there are some smaller places available. Poway and RB you have a pretty decent selection… PQ not so much…
