You guys are over-analyzing the shorting. It was clear by the end of 2005 that the downward slide was starting, and homebuilders and subprime lenders were obvious short candidates.
The key is patience, you can’t freak out every time there is a short squeeze and the market goes up 10-20%. I was confident that at some point the meltdown we are now experiencing was going to happen, just have to stick to your guns.
As I said a year ago, shorting this market was the “No-Brainer” of the century.