You guys actually have me on the fence more than you know. I still think the macaroni is about to hit the fan.
The myth of the spring bounce is pretty much shattered. Latent downside tension from seller’s who believed the spring bounce theory and price accordingly.Inventory likely to go up. I don’t need to repeat everything else being said.
I don’t expect sustained good news, on interest rates, jobs or any of the other potential economic drivers.
My sales pitch to buyer’s is still the same. Wait six months and if things look better, for buying, wait another six months. Time is on your side. That said , I think there will soon be deals out there for the right kind of bargain hunter. The Temecula guys are having their day more or less. I think they are just getting the chain reaction going that will drive down comps but they arent idiots either. Maybe the first bargains will be the best? I think the chain reacton is coming to a zip code near us soon. However, the deals may be the exception and in the eye of the beholder and all. Maybe the real trend will move slower and more real than nominal.I am not clarvoyant nor do I know how to spell it.
Am I backtracking ? No! I am just trying to debate reasonably. If I understand bugs, he is in the big chunk camp. As a very good appraiser who has shown detachment from the debate and even his own opinion, I think he has the best perpective to analyze the question. In any case to paraphrase him…since the appreciation happend in big chunks especially 2003-2004 I don’t see why it can’t be taken off in big chunks. Do we need a similiar but opposite catalyst to the easy lending of those days? Or can the precarious way the cards are stacked be enough? I think either will do. In shaky times the probability that the catalyst surfaces is too high for yours truly to recommend anything but caution in our local market.
