Yes, I’ve been watching it and agree that it could certainly be a leading indicator. During the last bubble, I shorted most of the public homebuilders, banks, some retailers, etc., and did very well; but all of the short-selling restrictions that they imposed throughout the downturn (making the market rise in response), in addition to all of the Fed and govt manipulation, made it a very scary ride. I would love to be short right now, but that last roller coaster ride has kept me from taking large positions.
Good luck to you if you’re short. I think it’s the right bet, but there are many forces that can work against you.
